DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s8

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 417

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

132

of 139 predictions shown

direction hit

57.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1603

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0377

actual +0.0596

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.40159	0.382395	-4.78%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-21	oos	0.402115	0.383749	-4.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.380708	-4.52%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.381227	-4.41%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.364432	-4.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.383033	-4.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.367056	-5.20%	–	pending	–	–	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.387864	-5.69%	0.40159	-2.35%	0.0001	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.39493	-5.15%	0.402115	-3.43%	0.0232	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.421426	-6.53%	0.398745	-11.56%	0.0526	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.41182	-6.57%	0.39882	-9.52%	0.0337	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.461762	-6.96%	0.38187	-23.06%	0.1584	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.499706	-7.22%	0.403015	-25.18%	0.1852	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.474737	-7.96%	0.387205	-24.93%	0.1834	✓	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.403776	-7.55%	0.41127	-5.83%	0.0102	✓	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.350709	-6.11%	0.416385	+11.47%	0.2063	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.379618	-6.86%	0.450845	+10.61%	0.2192	✗	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.383469	-6.94%	0.4408	+6.97%	0.2172	✗	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.387465	-7.07%	0.49633	+19.04%	0.3019	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.357655	-6.99%	0.538615	+40.07%	0.4447	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.369013	-6.92%	0.515775	+30.10%	0.3728	✗	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.367549	-6.99%	0.436745	+10.52%	0.2334	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.362483	-7.02%	0.373545	-4.18%	0.0354	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.355014	-6.99%	0.407595	+6.79%	0.1023	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.343953	-6.92%	0.41208	+11.52%	0.1390	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.404277	-7.11%	0.41695	-4.20%	0.0022	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.384952	-6.78%	0.38453	-6.88%	0.0064	✓	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.41494	-6.60%	0.39644	-10.76%	0.0522	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.423893	-6.56%	0.395175	-12.89%	0.0774	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.449366	-7.55%	0.38983	-19.80%	0.1292	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.406297	-6.88%	0.381685	-12.52%	0.0205	✓	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.377216	-6.70%	0.36952	-8.60%	0.0318	✓	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.362091	-7.52%	0.43524	+11.17%	0.1224	✗	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.402464	-9.86%	0.412955	-7.51%	0.0324	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.271646	-7.98%	0.44425	+50.50%	0.4322	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.234551	-8.05%	0.45364	+77.84%	0.5148	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.221507	-9.43%	0.48606	+98.74%	0.6376	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.137248	+0.14%	0.436315	+218.36%	0.9780	✓	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.141671	+0.49%	0.4043	+186.77%	0.9076	✓	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.143878	+0.22%	0.391515	+172.72%	0.9237	✓	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.150835	+0.61%	0.446505	+197.83%	1.0155	✓	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.150438	+1.30%	0.29519	+98.77%	0.6102	✓	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.149403	+1.15%	0.25509	+72.70%	0.5383	✓	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.156265	+1.41%	0.24457	+58.71%	0.4856	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.165208	+0.78%	0.13705	-16.40%	0.1364	✗	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.159959	+1.56%	0.140985	-10.49%	0.1101	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.168119	+1.80%	0.14356	-13.07%	0.0952	✗	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.17425	+1.17%	0.14992	-12.96%	0.1051	✗	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.153758	+2.75%	0.148505	-0.76%	0.0111	✓	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.162669	+2.59%	0.147705	-6.85%	0.0108	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.146574	+1.99%	0.154095	+7.23%	0.0311	✓	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.145794	+2.07%	0.16393	+14.76%	0.0969	✓	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.156955	+2.08%	0.1575	+2.44%	0.0050	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.158644	+1.49%	0.16514	+5.64%	0.0026	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.17354	+0.95%	0.17224	+0.20%	0.0294	✗	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.170282	+0.50%	0.14964	-11.69%	0.1545	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.177039	+0.31%	0.15856	-10.16%	0.1233	✗	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.166641	-0.16%	0.14371	-13.90%	0.1248	✓	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.147703	-0.23%	0.14284	-3.51%	0.0184	✓	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.161314	-1.53%	0.153755	-6.14%	0.0425	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.129661	-1.09%	0.15632	+19.25%	0.1878	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112085	-1.11%	0.1719	+51.67%	0.4137	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.117086	-1.51%	0.16944	+42.53%	0.3752	✗	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.096454	-2.05%	0.17649	+79.22%	0.5416	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.095502	-3.23%	0.166915	+69.13%	0.4631	✗	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.090249	-3.45%	0.14804	+58.37%	0.3549	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.092012	-3.92%	0.163815	+71.06%	0.4293	✗	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.097492	-5.81%	0.13109	+26.64%	0.1189	✗	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.089964	-3.24%	0.11334	+21.90%	0.0627	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.089727	-3.25%	0.11888	+28.19%	0.0987	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.091775	-3.37%	0.098475	+3.68%	0.0468	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.095087	-3.60%	0.09869	+0.05%	0.0371	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.094202	-3.52%	0.093475	-4.26%	0.0228	✓	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.090225	-3.36%	0.095765	+2.57%	0.0522	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.093276	-3.91%	0.10351	+6.63%	0.1302	✗	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.093498	-3.97%	0.092975	-4.50%	0.0189	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.093125	-3.88%	0.09274	-4.28%	0.0207	✓	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.093891	-4.00%	0.09498	-2.89%	0.0226	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.096735	-4.10%	0.09864	-2.22%	0.0350	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.097646	-3.96%	0.097635	-3.97%	0.0067	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.093857	-3.40%	0.093365	-3.91%	0.0111	✓	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.096101	-3.61%	0.09707	-2.64%	0.0074	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.101572	-3.96%	0.09736	-7.94%	0.0716	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.109893	-5.82%	0.096885	-16.97%	0.1544	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.091747	-2.99%	0.097805	+3.42%	0.0720	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.093941	-2.83%	0.100875	+4.34%	0.0584	✗	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.099897	-3.16%	0.10167	-1.44%	0.0139	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.102426	-3.22%	0.09716	-8.20%	0.0486	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.110394	-3.65%	0.0997	-12.98%	0.0698	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.109504	-3.67%	0.105755	-6.97%	0.0075	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.110829	-3.61%	0.116685	+1.48%	0.0741	✗	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.114482	-3.89%	0.094575	-20.60%	0.1853	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.116784	-3.96%	0.09668	-20.49%	0.1512	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.115296	-3.87%	0.10316	-13.99%	0.0653	✓	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.118653	-4.09%	0.105835	-14.45%	0.0864	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.118152	-4.00%	0.114575	-6.90%	0.0428	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.121116	-3.95%	0.113675	-9.85%	0.0542	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.124682	-4.04%	0.11498	-11.50%	0.0847	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.129659	-4.16%	0.119115	-11.95%	0.1096	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.138812	-4.82%	0.121595	-16.63%	0.1577	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.145132	-6.49%	0.11994	-22.72%	0.2186	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.112696	-3.59%	0.123715	+5.83%	0.0609	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.118479	-3.93%	0.12307	-0.21%	0.0285	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.11909	-3.98%	0.1261	+1.68%	0.0468	✗	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.112802	-4.18%	0.129925	+10.37%	0.1437	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.110127	-3.71%	0.135285	+18.29%	0.1997	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.105265	-3.47%	0.145845	+33.74%	0.3018	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.106567	-3.59%	0.1552	+40.40%	0.3600	✗	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.109396	-3.74%	0.116895	+2.86%	0.0828	✗	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.108101	-3.64%	0.12333	+9.94%	0.1303	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.103873	-3.53%	0.12402	+15.19%	0.1709	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.106097	-3.82%	0.11772	+6.72%	0.0883	✗	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.107862	-3.78%	0.11437	+2.02%	0.0406	✗	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.10306	-3.97%	0.10905	+1.61%	0.0328	✓	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.108799	-4.23%	0.11054	-2.70%	0.0475	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.101929	-3.55%	0.11365	+7.54%	0.0523	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.097965	-3.64%	0.11218	+10.34%	0.0756	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.085167	-2.47%	0.10767	+23.31%	0.1881	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.081095	-2.25%	0.11031	+32.97%	0.2666	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.081203	-2.21%	0.112105	+35.00%	0.2931	✗	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.080797	-2.39%	0.10732	+29.65%	0.3008	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.08373	-2.82%	0.11361	+31.86%	0.3732	✗	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.084529	-3.15%	0.10568	+21.09%	0.2844	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.087817	-3.28%	0.10167	+11.98%	0.2078	✗	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.094778	-3.81%	0.08732	-11.38%	0.0129	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.091635	-3.67%	0.08296	-12.79%	0.0432	✓	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.090625	-3.66%	0.08304	-11.73%	0.0356	✓	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.093982	-4.02%	0.082775	-15.47%	0.0717	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.096156	-4.26%	0.08616	-14.21%	0.0634	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.097395	-4.51%	0.087275	-14.44%	0.0740	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.096193	-4.64%	0.090795	-9.99%	0.0194	✓	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.096064	-4.67%	0.098535	-2.22%	0.0286	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.09744	-4.63%	0.09513	-6.89%	0.0230	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.099422	-4.71%	0.09407	-9.84%	0.0445	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.094526	-4.13%	0.09792	-0.69%	0.0124	✓	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.100291	-4.54%	0.10043	-4.41%	0.0604	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.105223	-5.54%	0.102	-8.43%	0.0808	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.098682	-4.79%	0.10087	-2.68%	0.0153	✓	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.08818	-3.66%	0.10077	+10.10%	0.0763	✗	1.00