DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s8

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 417

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

138

of 139 predictions shown

direction hit

57.2%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0532

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0098

actual +0.0087

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.40159	0.39728	-1.07%	–	pending	–	–	1.41
2026-10-21	oos	0.402115	0.398174	-0.98%	0.40159	-0.13%	0.0053	✓	1.42
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.39493	-0.96%	0.402115	+0.85%	0.0006	✓	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.395135	-0.92%	0.398745	-0.02%	0.0101	✓	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.378325	-0.93%	0.39882	+4.44%	0.0557	✗	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.398771	-1.05%	0.38187	-5.25%	0.0541	✓	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.383051	-1.07%	0.403015	+4.08%	0.0529	✗	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.406231	-1.23%	0.387205	-5.85%	0.0374	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.411973	-1.06%	0.41127	-1.23%	0.0112	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.444108	-1.49%	0.416385	-7.64%	0.0386	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.434416	-1.45%	0.450845	+2.28%	0.0140	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.488131	-1.65%	0.4408	-11.19%	0.0653	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.528587	-1.86%	0.49633	-7.85%	0.0778	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.50334	-2.41%	0.538615	+4.43%	0.0606	✗	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.427253	-2.17%	0.515775	+18.10%	0.1721	✗	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.368394	-1.38%	0.436745	+16.92%	0.2023	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.400737	-1.68%	0.373545	-8.35%	0.0264	✓	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.404958	-1.73%	0.407595	-1.09%	0.0105	✓	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.40932	-1.83%	0.41208	-1.17%	0.0211	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.377978	-1.70%	0.41695	+8.43%	0.0649	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.389763	-1.68%	0.38453	-3.00%	0.0180	✓	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.388174	-1.77%	0.39644	+0.32%	0.0276	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.383077	-1.73%	0.395175	+1.37%	0.0066	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.375063	-1.73%	0.38983	+2.13%	0.0402	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.363406	-1.65%	0.381685	+3.29%	0.0457	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.426526	-2.00%	0.36952	-15.10%	0.1269	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.405473	-1.81%	0.43524	+5.40%	0.0701	✗	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.435949	-1.87%	0.412955	-7.04%	0.0593	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.444288	-2.06%	0.44425	-2.07%	0.0045	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.471786	-2.94%	0.45364	-6.67%	0.0393	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.425313	-2.52%	0.48606	+11.40%	0.1632	✗	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.394177	-2.50%	0.436315	+7.92%	0.1081	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.380388	-2.84%	0.4043	+3.27%	0.0392	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.424961	-4.83%	0.391515	-12.32%	0.0806	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.285673	-3.22%	0.446505	+51.26%	0.4398	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.247272	-3.06%	0.29519	+15.72%	0.0938	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.234348	-4.18%	0.25509	+4.30%	0.0809	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.137281	+0.17%	0.24457	+78.45%	0.5674	✓	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.141266	+0.20%	0.13705	-2.79%	0.0162	✓	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.143779	+0.15%	0.140985	-1.79%	0.0445	✗	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.150239	+0.21%	0.14356	-4.24%	0.0371	✗	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.149027	+0.35%	0.14992	+0.95%	0.0050	✓	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.148186	+0.33%	0.148505	+0.54%	0.0098	✗	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.1546	+0.33%	0.147705	-4.15%	0.0150	✗	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.16419	+0.16%	0.154095	-6.00%	0.0606	✗	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.158009	+0.32%	0.16393	+4.08%	0.0481	✓	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.165625	+0.29%	0.1575	-4.63%	0.0285	✗	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.172181	-0.03%	0.16514	-4.12%	0.0505	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.15041	+0.51%	0.17224	+15.10%	0.1327	✓	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.159142	+0.37%	0.14964	-5.63%	0.0333	✗	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.144312	+0.42%	0.15856	+10.33%	0.0188	✓	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.14344	+0.42%	0.14371	+0.61%	0.0037	✓	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.15431	+0.36%	0.14284	-7.10%	0.0585	✗	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.15665	+0.21%	0.153755	-1.64%	0.0332	✗	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.171809	-0.05%	0.15632	-9.06%	0.0866	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.16898	-0.27%	0.1719	+1.45%	0.0117	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.175471	-0.58%	0.16944	-3.99%	0.0020	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.165764	-0.69%	0.17649	+5.74%	0.0461	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.147337	-0.48%	0.166915	+12.75%	0.1182	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.161673	-1.31%	0.14804	-9.63%	0.0822	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.130303	-0.60%	0.163815	+24.96%	0.2137	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112851	-0.43%	0.13109	+15.66%	0.1418	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.117774	-0.93%	0.11334	-4.66%	0.0235	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.098084	-0.40%	0.11888	+20.72%	0.1459	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.098002	-0.70%	0.098475	-0.22%	0.0330	✓	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.092834	-0.69%	0.09869	+5.58%	0.0114	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.094888	-0.92%	0.093475	-2.39%	0.0173	✓	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.101367	-2.07%	0.095765	-7.48%	0.0783	✓	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.092452	-0.56%	0.10351	+11.33%	0.1154	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.092221	-0.56%	0.092975	+0.25%	0.0076	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.094418	-0.59%	0.09274	-2.36%	0.0120	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.097977	-0.67%	0.09498	-3.71%	0.0312	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.09697	-0.68%	0.09864	+1.03%	0.0187	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.092787	-0.62%	0.097635	+4.57%	0.0560	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.096293	-0.80%	0.093365	-3.82%	0.0188	✓	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.09656	-0.82%	0.09707	-0.30%	0.0060	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.096119	-0.79%	0.09736	+0.49%	0.0126	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.09699	-0.83%	0.096885	-0.94%	0.0092	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.099974	-0.89%	0.097805	-3.04%	0.0176	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.100766	-0.89%	0.100875	-0.78%	0.0062	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.09652	-0.66%	0.10167	+4.64%	0.0444	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.098966	-0.74%	0.09716	-2.55%	0.0180	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.104806	-0.90%	0.0997	-5.73%	0.0601	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.114349	-2.00%	0.105755	-9.37%	0.0773	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.094096	-0.51%	0.116685	+23.38%	0.2489	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.096217	-0.48%	0.094575	-2.18%	0.0321	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.102564	-0.58%	0.09668	-6.28%	0.0600	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.105199	-0.60%	0.10316	-2.53%	0.0224	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.113691	-0.77%	0.105835	-7.63%	0.0430	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.112814	-0.76%	0.114575	+0.79%	0.0028	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.11415	-0.72%	0.113675	-1.13%	0.0079	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.118136	-0.82%	0.11498	-3.47%	0.0102	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.120554	-0.86%	0.119115	-2.04%	0.0057	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.118954	-0.82%	0.121595	+1.38%	0.0292	✗	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.122629	-0.88%	0.11994	-3.05%	0.0456	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.122051	-0.83%	0.123715	+0.52%	0.0038	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.125049	-0.83%	0.12307	-2.40%	0.0138	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.128824	-0.85%	0.1261	-2.94%	0.0387	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.134042	-0.92%	0.129925	-3.96%	0.0336	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.143777	-1.42%	0.135285	-7.24%	0.0431	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.151149	-2.61%	0.145845	-6.03%	0.0307	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.116084	-0.69%	0.1552	+32.77%	0.2604	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.122247	-0.88%	0.116895	-5.22%	0.0295	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.122914	-0.89%	0.12333	-0.56%	0.0037	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.116425	-1.10%	0.12402	+5.35%	0.0668	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.113474	-0.78%	0.11772	+2.93%	0.0270	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.108307	-0.68%	0.11437	+4.88%	0.0452	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.109684	-0.77%	0.10905	-1.35%	0.0048	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.112712	-0.83%	0.11054	-2.74%	0.0131	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.111334	-0.75%	0.11365	+1.31%	0.0166	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.106865	-0.75%	0.11218	+4.19%	0.0440	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.109311	-0.91%	0.10767	-2.39%	0.0207	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.111159	-0.84%	0.11031	-1.60%	0.0187	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.106167	-1.07%	0.112105	+4.46%	0.0385	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.112318	-1.14%	0.10732	-5.54%	0.0650	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.10486	-0.78%	0.11361	+7.50%	0.1054	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.100722	-0.93%	0.10568	+3.94%	0.0377	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.086997	-0.37%	0.10167	+16.43%	0.1628	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.082715	-0.29%	0.08732	+5.26%	0.0553	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082808	-0.28%	0.08296	-0.10%	0.0032	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.082515	-0.31%	0.08304	+0.32%	0.0275	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.085788	-0.43%	0.082775	-3.93%	0.0089	✓	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.086827	-0.51%	0.08616	-1.28%	0.0129	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.090285	-0.56%	0.087275	-3.88%	0.0452	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.097804	-0.74%	0.090795	-7.86%	0.0589	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.094478	-0.69%	0.098535	+3.58%	0.0303	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.093434	-0.68%	0.09513	+1.13%	0.0086	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.097147	-0.79%	0.09407	-3.93%	0.0076	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.099548	-0.88%	0.09792	-2.50%	0.0015	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.101057	-0.92%	0.10043	-1.54%	0.0038	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.099891	-0.97%	0.102	+1.12%	0.0123	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.099782	-0.98%	0.10087	+0.10%	0.0088	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.101188	-0.96%	0.10077	-1.37%	0.0181	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.103306	-0.99%	0.10217	-2.08%	0.0107	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.097804	-0.81%	0.10434	+5.82%	0.0308	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.10404	-0.97%	0.0986	-6.15%	0.0498	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.109743	-1.48%	0.10506	-5.68%	0.0215	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.102507	-1.10%	0.11139	+7.47%	0.0869	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.090876	-0.71%	0.10365	+13.24%	0.0920	✗	1.00