DRV

Derive · Ethereum · gru_s8

token id: #111
symbol: DRV
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0xb1d1eae60eea9525032a6dcb4c1ce336a1de71be
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-05-28
predictions: 414

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

137

of 138 predictions shown

direction hit

58.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0536

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0098

actual +0.0087

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.386075	0.384325	-0.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.43
2026-10-20	oos	0.398745	0.396698	-0.51%	0.386075	-3.18%	0.0230	✓	1.43
2026-10-19	oos	0.39882	0.396843	-0.50%	0.398745	-0.02%	0.0144	✓	1.43
2026-10-18	oos	0.38187	0.380186	-0.44%	0.39882	+4.44%	0.0508	✗	1.41
2026-10-17	oos	0.403015	0.400801	-0.55%	0.38187	-5.25%	0.0592	✓	1.41
2026-10-16	oos	0.387205	0.385103	-0.54%	0.403015	+4.08%	0.0475	✗	1.42
2026-10-15	oos	0.41127	0.408656	-0.64%	0.387205	-5.85%	0.0434	✓	1.39
2026-10-14	oos	0.416385	0.414174	-0.53%	0.41127	-1.23%	0.0165	✓	1.39
2026-10-13	oos	0.450845	0.446419	-0.98%	0.416385	-7.64%	0.0438	✓	1.38
2026-10-12	oos	0.4408	0.43679	-0.91%	0.450845	+2.28%	0.0086	✓	1.40
2026-10-11	oos	0.49633	0.490827	-1.11%	0.4408	-11.19%	0.0708	✓	1.57
2026-10-10	oos	0.538615	0.530733	-1.46%	0.49633	-7.85%	0.0818	✓	1.61
2026-10-09	oos	0.515775	0.505468	-2.00%	0.538615	+4.43%	0.0564	✗	1.61
2026-10-08	oos	0.436745	0.429577	-1.64%	0.515775	+18.10%	0.1666	✗	1.57
2026-10-07	oos	0.373545	0.370275	-0.88%	0.436745	+16.92%	0.1972	✗	1.67
2026-10-06	oos	0.407595	0.403283	-1.06%	0.373545	-8.35%	0.0328	✓	1.63
2026-10-05	oos	0.41208	0.407393	-1.14%	0.407595	-1.09%	0.0045	✓	1.63
2026-10-04	oos	0.41695	0.411652	-1.27%	0.41208	-1.17%	0.0154	✗	1.63
2026-10-03	oos	0.38453	0.380265	-1.11%	0.41695	+8.43%	0.0588	✗	1.61
2026-10-02	oos	0.39644	0.391943	-1.13%	0.38453	-3.00%	0.0236	✓	1.62
2026-10-01	oos	0.395175	0.390127	-1.28%	0.39644	+0.32%	0.0226	✗	1.61
2026-09-30	oos	0.38983	0.385175	-1.19%	0.395175	+1.37%	0.0011	✓	1.60
2026-09-29	oos	0.381685	0.376992	-1.23%	0.38983	+2.13%	0.0351	✗	1.59
2026-09-28	oos	0.36952	0.365618	-1.06%	0.381685	+3.29%	0.0397	✗	1.54
2026-09-27	oos	0.43524	0.427715	-1.73%	0.36952	-15.10%	0.1297	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.412955	0.406859	-1.48%	0.43524	+5.40%	0.0667	✗	1.39
2026-09-25	oos	0.44425	0.43638	-1.77%	0.412955	-7.04%	0.0603	✓	1.34
2026-09-24	oos	0.45364	0.443155	-2.31%	0.44425	-2.07%	0.0071	✓	1.33
2026-09-23	oos	0.48606	0.470076	-3.29%	0.45364	-6.67%	0.0357	✓	1.32
2026-09-22	oos	0.436315	0.423708	-2.89%	0.48606	+11.40%	0.1670	✗	1.39
2026-09-21	oos	0.4043	0.392619	-2.89%	0.436315	+7.92%	0.1121	✗	1.42
2026-09-20	oos	0.391515	0.379856	-2.98%	0.4043	+3.27%	0.0378	✓	1.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.446505	0.426379	-4.51%	0.391515	-12.32%	0.0839	✓	1.51
2026-09-18	oos	0.29519	0.286152	-3.06%	0.446505	+51.26%	0.4382	✗	1.53
2026-09-17	oos	0.25509	0.24805	-2.76%	0.29519	+15.72%	0.0906	✗	1.45
2026-09-16	oos	0.24457	0.235938	-3.53%	0.25509	+4.30%	0.0742	✗	1.44
2026-09-15	oos	0.13705	0.136475	-0.42%	0.24457	+78.45%	0.5733	✗	1.36
2026-09-14	oos	0.140985	0.140406	-0.41%	0.13705	-2.79%	0.0223	✗	1.38
2026-09-13	oos	0.14356	0.142959	-0.42%	0.140985	-1.79%	0.0388	✓	1.40
2026-09-12	oos	0.14992	0.149302	-0.41%	0.14356	-4.24%	0.0309	✓	1.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.148505	0.147922	-0.39%	0.14992	+0.95%	0.0124	✗	1.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.147705	0.147132	-0.39%	0.148505	+0.54%	0.0027	✓	1.37
2026-09-09	oos	0.154095	0.153405	-0.45%	0.147705	-4.15%	0.0072	✓	1.36
2026-09-08	oos	0.16393	0.162983	-0.58%	0.154095	-6.00%	0.0532	✓	1.36
2026-09-07	oos	0.1575	0.156891	-0.39%	0.16393	+4.08%	0.0552	✗	1.39
2026-09-06	oos	0.16514	0.164193	-0.57%	0.1575	-4.63%	0.0198	✓	1.39
2026-09-05	oos	0.17224	0.169873	-1.37%	0.16514	-4.12%	0.0370	✓	1.38
2026-09-04	oos	0.14964	0.148974	-0.45%	0.17224	+15.10%	0.1423	✗	1.46
2026-09-03	oos	0.15856	0.157204	-0.86%	0.14964	-5.63%	0.0211	✓	1.43
2026-09-02	oos	0.14371	0.143112	-0.42%	0.15856	+10.33%	0.0271	✗	1.51
2026-09-01	oos	0.14284	0.142205	-0.44%	0.14371	+0.61%	0.0123	✗	1.51
2026-08-31	oos	0.153755	0.152779	-0.64%	0.14284	-7.10%	0.0485	✓	1.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.15632	0.155057	-0.81%	0.153755	-1.64%	0.0229	✓	1.26
2026-08-29	oos	0.1719	0.169606	-1.33%	0.15632	-9.06%	0.0737	✓	1.08
2026-08-28	oos	0.16944	0.166631	-1.66%	0.1719	+1.45%	0.0257	✗	1.08
2026-08-27	oos	0.17649	0.172628	-2.19%	0.16944	-3.99%	0.0143	✓	1.07
2026-08-26	oos	0.166915	0.163216	-2.22%	0.17649	+5.74%	0.0616	✗	1.06
2026-08-25	oos	0.14804	0.14569	-1.59%	0.166915	+12.75%	0.1294	✗	1.04
2026-08-24	oos	0.163815	0.159513	-2.63%	0.14804	-9.63%	0.0687	✓	1.03
2026-08-23	oos	0.13109	0.129242	-1.41%	0.163815	+24.96%	0.2219	✗	0.95
2026-08-22	oos	0.11334	0.112314	-0.91%	0.13109	+15.66%	0.1465	✗	0.92
2026-08-21	oos	0.11888	0.117016	-1.57%	0.11334	-4.66%	0.0171	✓	0.91
2026-08-20	oos	0.098475	0.098053	-0.43%	0.11888	+20.72%	0.1462	✗	0.66
2026-08-19	oos	0.09869	0.098128	-0.57%	0.098475	-0.22%	0.0343	✓	0.73
2026-08-18	oos	0.093475	0.092998	-0.51%	0.09869	+5.58%	0.0096	✗	0.72
2026-08-17	oos	0.095765	0.095038	-0.76%	0.093475	-2.39%	0.0189	✓	0.73
2026-08-16	oos	0.10351	0.101599	-1.85%	0.095765	-7.48%	0.0806	✓	0.83
2026-08-15	oos	0.092975	0.092675	-0.32%	0.10351	+11.33%	0.1130	✗	0.84
2026-08-14	oos	0.09274	0.092453	-0.31%	0.092975	+0.25%	0.0051	✗	0.84
2026-08-13	oos	0.09498	0.09466	-0.34%	0.09274	-2.36%	0.0146	✓	0.83
2026-08-12	oos	0.09864	0.098228	-0.42%	0.09498	-3.71%	0.0338	✓	0.84
2026-08-11	oos	0.097635	0.097162	-0.48%	0.09864	+1.03%	0.0167	✗	0.84
2026-08-10	oos	0.093365	0.092992	-0.40%	0.097635	+4.57%	0.0538	✗	0.84
2026-08-09	oos	0.09707	0.096623	-0.46%	0.093365	-3.82%	0.0222	✓	0.83
2026-08-08	oos	0.09736	0.096917	-0.46%	0.09707	-0.30%	0.0023	✓	0.83
2026-08-07	oos	0.096885	0.096471	-0.43%	0.09736	+0.49%	0.0090	✗	0.83
2026-08-06	oos	0.097805	0.097366	-0.45%	0.096885	-0.94%	0.0131	✓	0.84
2026-08-05	oos	0.100875	0.100384	-0.49%	0.097805	-3.04%	0.0217	✓	0.83
2026-08-04	oos	0.10167	0.101113	-0.55%	0.100875	-0.78%	0.0096	✓	0.84
2026-08-03	oos	0.09716	0.096757	-0.41%	0.10167	+4.64%	0.0419	✗	0.83
2026-08-02	oos	0.0997	0.099253	-0.45%	0.09716	-2.55%	0.0209	✓	0.83
2026-08-01	oos	0.105755	0.105109	-0.61%	0.0997	-5.73%	0.0630	✓	0.87
2026-07-31	oos	0.116685	0.114905	-1.53%	0.105755	-9.37%	0.0821	✓	0.88
2026-07-30	oos	0.094575	0.094256	-0.34%	0.116685	+23.38%	0.2472	✗	1.14
2026-07-29	oos	0.09668	0.096299	-0.39%	0.094575	-2.18%	0.0330	✓	1.16
2026-07-28	oos	0.10316	0.102717	-0.43%	0.09668	-6.28%	0.0615	✓	1.17
2026-07-27	oos	0.105835	0.105336	-0.47%	0.10316	-2.53%	0.0237	✓	1.18
2026-07-26	oos	0.114575	0.113921	-0.57%	0.105835	-7.63%	0.0450	✓	1.12
2026-07-25	oos	0.113675	0.113014	-0.58%	0.114575	+0.79%	0.0046	✓	1.14
2026-07-24	oos	0.11498	0.114321	-0.57%	0.113675	-1.13%	0.0094	✓	1.14
2026-07-23	oos	0.119115	0.118363	-0.63%	0.11498	-3.47%	0.0121	✓	1.13
2026-07-22	oos	0.121595	0.120782	-0.67%	0.119115	-2.04%	0.0038	✓	1.12
2026-07-21	oos	0.11994	0.119134	-0.67%	0.121595	+1.38%	0.0277	✗	1.12
2026-07-20	oos	0.123715	0.122831	-0.71%	0.11994	-3.05%	0.0472	✓	1.18
2026-07-19	oos	0.12307	0.122218	-0.69%	0.123715	+0.52%	0.0024	✓	1.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.1261	0.125134	-0.77%	0.12307	-2.40%	0.0145	✓	1.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.129925	0.128918	-0.77%	0.1261	-2.94%	0.0394	✓	1.24
2026-07-16	oos	0.135285	0.134139	-0.85%	0.129925	-3.96%	0.0343	✓	1.25
2026-07-15	oos	0.145845	0.143665	-1.49%	0.135285	-7.24%	0.0423	✓	1.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.1552	0.151096	-2.64%	0.145845	-6.03%	0.0303	✓	1.20
2026-07-13	oos	0.116895	0.116145	-0.64%	0.1552	+32.77%	0.2599	✗	0.70
2026-07-12	oos	0.12333	0.122272	-0.86%	0.116895	-5.22%	0.0298	✓	0.65
2026-07-11	oos	0.12402	0.122969	-0.85%	0.12333	-0.56%	0.0033	✓	0.65
2026-07-10	oos	0.11772	0.116451	-1.08%	0.12402	+5.35%	0.0666	✗	0.66
2026-07-09	oos	0.11437	0.113536	-0.73%	0.11772	+2.93%	0.0265	✗	0.65
2026-07-08	oos	0.10905	0.108403	-0.59%	0.11437	+4.88%	0.0443	✗	0.62
2026-07-07	oos	0.11054	0.109716	-0.75%	0.10905	-1.35%	0.0045	✓	0.61
2026-07-06	oos	0.11365	0.112739	-0.80%	0.11054	-2.74%	0.0133	✓	0.60
2026-07-05	oos	0.11218	0.111407	-0.69%	0.11365	+1.31%	0.0160	✗	0.60
2026-07-04	oos	0.10767	0.10688	-0.73%	0.11218	+4.19%	0.0438	✗	0.58
2026-07-03	oos	0.11031	0.109287	-0.93%	0.10767	-2.39%	0.0204	✓	0.61
2026-07-02	oos	0.112105	0.111197	-0.81%	0.11031	-1.60%	0.0191	✓	0.66
2026-07-01	oos	0.10732	0.106035	-1.20%	0.112105	+4.46%	0.0397	✗	0.64
2026-06-30	oos	0.11361	0.112217	-1.23%	0.10732	-5.54%	0.0641	✓	0.80
2026-06-29	oos	0.10568	0.104852	-0.78%	0.11361	+7.50%	0.1054	✗	0.91
2026-06-28	oos	0.10167	0.100601	-1.05%	0.10568	+3.94%	0.0389	✗	0.90
2026-06-27	oos	0.08732	0.087065	-0.29%	0.10167	+16.43%	0.1621	✗	0.91
2026-06-26	oos	0.08296	0.08279	-0.21%	0.08732	+5.26%	0.0544	✗	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.08304	0.082879	-0.19%	0.08296	-0.10%	0.0040	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.082775	0.082577	-0.24%	0.08304	+0.32%	0.0268	✗	1.00
2026-06-23	oos	0.08616	0.085856	-0.35%	0.082775	-3.93%	0.0097	✓	1.00
2026-06-22	oos	0.087275	0.086936	-0.39%	0.08616	-1.28%	0.0117	✗	1.00
2026-06-21	oos	0.090795	0.090391	-0.44%	0.087275	-3.88%	0.0463	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.098535	0.097968	-0.58%	0.090795	-7.86%	0.0605	✓	1.00
2026-06-19	oos	0.09513	0.094629	-0.53%	0.098535	+3.58%	0.0287	✗	1.00
2026-06-18	oos	0.09407	0.093587	-0.51%	0.09513	+1.13%	0.0069	✗	1.00
2026-06-17	oos	0.09792	0.097324	-0.61%	0.09407	-3.93%	0.0094	✓	1.00
2026-06-16	oos	0.10043	0.099693	-0.73%	0.09792	-2.50%	0.0001	✓	1.00
2026-06-15	oos	0.102	0.101303	-0.68%	0.10043	-1.54%	0.0014	✓	1.00
2026-06-14	oos	0.10087	0.100148	-0.72%	0.102	+1.12%	0.0097	✗	1.00
2026-06-13	oos	0.10077	0.100073	-0.69%	0.10087	+0.10%	0.0117	✓	1.00
2026-06-12	oos	0.10217	0.101475	-0.68%	0.10077	-1.37%	0.0209	✓	1.00
2026-06-11	oos	0.10434	0.103575	-0.73%	0.10217	-2.08%	0.0133	✓	1.00
2026-06-10	oos	0.0986	0.097985	-0.62%	0.10434	+5.82%	0.0290	✗	1.00
2026-06-09	oos	0.10506	0.104259	-0.76%	0.0986	-6.15%	0.0519	✓	1.00
2026-06-08	oos	0.11139	0.109904	-1.33%	0.10506	-5.68%	0.0230	✓	1.00
2026-06-07	oos	0.10365	0.102731	-0.89%	0.11139	+7.47%	0.0847	✗	1.00
2026-06-06	oos	0.09153	0.091032	-0.54%	0.10365	+13.24%	0.0903	✗	1.00