BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s8

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

196

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

55.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0601

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0061

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050678	-0.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049958	-0.33%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0204	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047224	-0.30%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0484	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048688	-0.30%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0258	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052777	-0.52%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0840	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055652	-0.62%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0467	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.04455	-0.11%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2356	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043773	-0.10%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0126	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047825	-0.08%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0719	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.054642	-0.12%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1470	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.066048	-0.28%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1733	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067812	-0.34%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0299	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068255	-0.39%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0061	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065678	-0.44%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0353	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067154	-0.50%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0052	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066835	-0.44%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0303	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.06202	-0.24%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0810	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062269	-0.23%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0054	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.061722	-0.24%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0053	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.0627	-0.22%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0156	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.065053	-0.26%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0314	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.06597	-0.29%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0231	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066695	-0.31%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0075	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066999	-0.28%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0031	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.07067	-0.41%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0440	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070784	-0.49%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0022	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.069022	-0.28%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0282	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066741	-0.22%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0382	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063557	-0.15%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0511	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.06876	-0.24%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0652	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.068018	-0.24%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0164	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065974	-0.26%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0096	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065348	-0.25%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0127	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.065046	-0.21%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0044	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.06233	-0.21%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0119	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061293	-0.21%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0173	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.063046	-0.24%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0291	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062528	-0.19%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0245	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061718	-0.18%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0075	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063895	-0.21%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0303	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064083	-0.25%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0011	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060509	-0.13%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0564	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061849	-0.13%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0118	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067543	-0.19%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0857	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067335	-0.16%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0092	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067341	-0.10%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0095	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068676	-0.11%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0221	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068595	-0.09%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0012	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069609	-0.03%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0028	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067153	-0.17%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0097	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067358	-0.16%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0007	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068319	-0.08%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0062	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067759	-0.12%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0029	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070509	-0.13%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0348	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071389	-0.13%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0138	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073203	-0.08%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0078	✓	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072146	-0.10%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0075	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068957	-0.08%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0430	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072208	-0.09%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0425	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073353	-0.13%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0234	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074317	-0.17%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0165	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090432	-0.55%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1871	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083874	-0.36%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0543	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080434	-0.39%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0210	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078608	-0.46%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0080	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.07707	-0.45%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0227	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077519	-0.60%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0155	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.079276	-0.62%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0148	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074852	-0.32%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0632	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.075133	-0.32%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0034	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.07628	-0.34%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0121	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076399	-0.34%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0030	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.077042	-0.39%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0007	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073853	-0.27%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0565	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076942	-0.35%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0376	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077592	-0.38%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0051	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083801	-0.52%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0806	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.080116	-0.49%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0542	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.07644	-0.35%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0457	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076222	-0.34%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0002	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075619	-0.33%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0117	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074975	-0.29%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0043	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078723	-0.40%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0452	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079143	-0.47%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0189	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079825	-0.46%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0123	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.07889	-0.40%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0159	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.07899	-0.41%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0013	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.086578	-0.53%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0735	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084146	-0.51%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0255	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.083961	-0.54%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0056	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.075604	-0.43%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1189	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083828	-0.50%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0901	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.084988	-0.49%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0050	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085384	-0.52%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0089	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089719	-0.59%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0485	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091557	-0.61%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0130	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091175	-0.59%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0010	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.090757	-0.63%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0087	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.088907	-0.63%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0371	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.086831	-0.63%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0334	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.09406	-0.70%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1181	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101408	-0.76%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0450	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.09759	-0.73%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0465	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.103065	-0.86%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0420	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.110018	-1.26%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0715	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086363	-0.80%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2418	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084416	-0.73%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0451	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094095	-0.80%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0927	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.0916	-0.82%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0290	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091238	-0.85%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0051	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094079	-0.93%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0301	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.100092	-1.12%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0680	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.127359	-2.43%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2578	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.098644	-1.55%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2579	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.08071	-0.66%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2466	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.07999	-0.82%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0055	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074422	-0.61%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0872	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066753	-0.38%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1158	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070783	-0.43%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0593	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.082799	-0.74%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1352	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098102	-1.39%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1435	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.09336	-0.94%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0788	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.092698	-1.14%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0083	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.087635	-0.92%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0796	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.09633	-1.54%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.0949	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.09391	-1.49%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0333	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077227	-0.73%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2348	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075549	-0.77%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0475	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077668	-1.15%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0099	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.07116	-0.54%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0907	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068783	-0.46%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0205	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074379	-0.72%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0876	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072666	-0.62%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0309	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.06285	-0.02%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1224	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064624	-0.04%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0244	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.0647	-0.06%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0185	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069974	-0.22%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0745	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066442	+0.06%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0216	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062285	+0.23%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0664	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063113	+0.13%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0237	✓	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.070088	-0.09%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.1030	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064998	+0.03%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1196	✓	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070976	-0.38%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0178	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.070989	-0.51%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0387	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076329	-0.84%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0645	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.07564	-0.93%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0114	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060933	+0.07%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2279	✓	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.06222	+0.01%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0090	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062158	-0.03%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0252	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068568	-0.27%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0770	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068364	-0.20%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0017	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071876	-0.24%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0529	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070999	-0.14%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0031	✓	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083305	-0.83%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1345	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076312	-0.44%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0952	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070633	-0.19%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0740	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071342	-0.21%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0061	✓	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.07029	-0.21%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0221	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075565	-0.30%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0628	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074731	-0.24%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0245	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086494	-0.49%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1283	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088396	-0.49%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0314	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.109422	-0.99%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2033	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.103767	-0.92%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0699	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097149	-1.13%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0781	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095394	-0.91%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0203	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089448	-0.70%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0707	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091228	-0.79%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0138	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087384	-0.75%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0617	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.089816	-0.78%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0239	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.093938	-0.83%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0454	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098071	-0.90%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0459	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.115064	-1.14%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1498	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.109035	-1.04%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0619	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111196	-1.04%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0253	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.1282	-1.30%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1368	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.136453	-1.46%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0419	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.134358	-1.90%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0438	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.131669	-1.60%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0562	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.132374	-1.71%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0023	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.120766	-1.56%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.1066	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.132707	-2.29%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0680	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.112739	-1.74%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1853	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.126684	-3.04%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1231	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.110496	-3.04%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1612	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.084843	-1.57%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2678	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.089563	-1.82%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0127	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.119527	-3.02%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2525	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.158474	-4.62%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2768	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.083744	-2.09%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6808	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074022	-1.49%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1357	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064835	-1.32%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1512	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.059009	-0.83%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0566	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.05435	-0.61%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1230	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053538	-0.59%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0200	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053272	-0.59%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0057	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061525	-0.67%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1481	✓	1.00