ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s8

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +30d

assessed

141

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

75.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4744

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0658

actual -0.3451

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001319	-4.01%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001216	-3.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001218	-3.56%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001112	-3.21%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001182	-3.90%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001223	-4.22%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001207	-4.08%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001044	-3.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001106	-3.31%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001087	-3.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.00133	-2.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001317	-2.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001191	-3.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001311	-3.22%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001408	-2.60%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001539	-1.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001605	-1.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001619	-1.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001661	-2.18%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001715	-2.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001831	-3.04%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001805	-3.68%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001738	-3.34%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001651	-2.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001842	-3.30%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001912	-3.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001942	-3.77%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002149	-4.84%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001876	-2.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002091	-3.12%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001733	-0.65%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.1477	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001469	-2.06%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1939	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001741	-2.58%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3340	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001784	-2.56%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4657	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001558	-2.90%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3477	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001641	-3.04%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3662	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001626	-3.00%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3845	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.00176	-2.37%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5478	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001845	-3.03%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5984	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001777	-2.80%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.5438	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001895	-3.12%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.4515	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001966	-3.66%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4967	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002107	-3.63%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.6217	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002155	-3.79%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.5413	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002221	-3.75%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.5268	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002431	-4.52%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5647	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002373	-4.50%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.5120	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002821	-6.73%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.7013	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002897	-6.82%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.6155	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002215	-4.78%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3938	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002274	-4.53%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3562	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002512	-4.64%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3999	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002762	-6.27%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5553	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002447	-4.30%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4763	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002041	-2.86%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.2108	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002261	-2.51%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.2166	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.00211	-2.60%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1486	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001894	-2.23%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0544	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002205	-2.85%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.2294	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002277	-3.53%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.2137	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002518	-4.64%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5533	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002479	-3.99%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5596	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002809	-7.97%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6851	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002139	-6.55%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.4330	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001792	-8.08%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3915	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001809	-8.89%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.3426	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001685	-10.02%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.3076	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.00175	-10.51%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.3234	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001854	-11.19%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.3009	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001723	-11.16%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2679	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001938	-12.33%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.3243	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001785	-12.12%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.1791	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001553	-11.30%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0043	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001515	-11.74%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.0697	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001404	-11.61%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.1685	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.00142	-11.30%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.2616	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001846	-12.90%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0523	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001742	-12.80%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.2209	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002031	-14.72%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.0674	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001201	-11.46%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.3828	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001203	-11.18%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.4034	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001395	-11.34%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.2883	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001489	-11.16%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.3543	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.00152	-10.40%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.2407	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001563	-10.56%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0003	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001616	-10.36%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0280	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001837	-11.52%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.1450	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001814	-10.83%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.2078	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.001995	-13.42%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1958	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001981	-14.45%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0944	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001339	-9.67%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.4068	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001245	-8.49%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4462	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001403	-9.57%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.6235	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001108	-7.54%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6365	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001129	-7.69%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5465	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001242	-7.95%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4769	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001306	-8.26%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.3854	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.000979709	-5.89%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.7082	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.000987151	-5.63%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.7889	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001092	-5.68%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.6102	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.000994214	-4.95%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7744	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001145	-4.98%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5773	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001259	-4.80%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3266	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.00109	-4.73%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4397	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001041	-4.78%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3884	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000950325	-5.25%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4707	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001094	-3.91%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6433	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001365	-1.97%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3708	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001435	-1.83%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.4983	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001513	-1.59%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1162	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.00183	-1.35%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3204	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001543	-0.74%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0036	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001808	-0.36%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1363	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001822	+0.19%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.2031	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002207	-0.86%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.3028	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002257	-0.77%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.3068	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002458	-1.33%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2389	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002492	-1.39%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.3010	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002292	-0.83%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0768	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002547	-1.46%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1476	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002658	-2.01%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6238	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003013	-3.05%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8272	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003163	-3.29%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7632	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003497	-4.52%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0859	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003623	-5.00%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.1045	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004162	-7.70%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1593	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.00372	-5.76%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9492	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.00355	-5.55%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1887	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003706	-6.75%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2333	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003365	-5.26%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0530	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003378	-5.27%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1288	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003185	-4.52%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9759	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003911	-9.11%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0880	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.00286	-2.10%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9344	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002706	-1.66%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.9164	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003268	-3.89%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1780	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002659	-1.83%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8480	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002521	-0.60%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5911	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002736	-0.87%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.6250	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003332	-3.19%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7811	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003704	-4.38%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.7069	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003709	-5.19%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.9233	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003951	-7.20%	0.001815	-57.37%	1.0575	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004242	-8.58%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.3348	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004588	-9.67%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.1604	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.004947	-11.16%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.2130	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004741	-11.02%	0.002491	-53.25%	1.0669	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005251	-13.81%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.2192	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004037	-9.27%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8829	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004541	-10.79%	0.002585	-49.21%	0.9904	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003806	-8.36%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.1325	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004032	-8.57%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0791	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.00375	-7.62%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.0400	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003492	-7.49%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2363	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.0036	-7.35%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.2569	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003972	-7.16%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3264	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.004764	-7.76%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0109	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.004976	-8.10%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.1153	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005146	-8.27%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0942	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005176	-8.04%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1915	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005633	-7.70%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.2273	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005474	-8.68%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2738	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005754	-8.60%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0546	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005482	-7.27%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3443	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004717	-5.96%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2520	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005593	-7.62%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2516	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005833	-8.32%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5306	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007285	-12.59%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7815	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006118	-7.24%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.5076	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004127	-5.26%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0560	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004028	-5.90%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.1816	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.