ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s8

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +7d

assessed

164

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

63.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2412

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0254

actual -0.0929

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001343	-2.24%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001234	-1.97%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001238	-2.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.00113	-1.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001205	-1.98%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001249	-2.16%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001232	-2.09%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001071	-1.19%	0.001374	+26.81%	0.2264	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001128	-1.44%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1131	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001113	-1.22%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1247	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001346	-1.51%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.1263	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001336	-1.52%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0522	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001214	-1.29%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0715	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001336	-1.40%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0686	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001427	-1.31%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.2407	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001547	-1.10%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2540	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001612	-1.17%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2774	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001621	-1.00%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.1120	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001674	-1.39%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1709	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001732	-1.53%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.3003	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001855	-1.77%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.2479	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001836	-2.03%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.2330	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001765	-1.81%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1594	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001675	-1.57%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0721	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.00187	-1.86%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1750	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001944	-1.99%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1419	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001975	-2.12%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.1246	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002193	-2.88%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1594	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001899	-1.81%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0042	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.00211	-2.23%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.1064	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001728	-0.90%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0521	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001496	-0.28%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1697	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001768	-1.05%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0463	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001814	-0.93%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0358	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001617	+0.75%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1604	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001702	+0.60%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0464	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001691	+0.89%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0414	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001809	+0.34%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.1878	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001905	+0.10%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3232	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001833	+0.30%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1040	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001953	-0.17%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1362	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002028	-0.60%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2301	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002161	-1.16%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.2008	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002209	-1.38%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2052	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002271	-1.60%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2091	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.00249	-2.21%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1799	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.00243	-2.20%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2217	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002917	-3.57%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3393	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002986	-3.98%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2646	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002272	-2.31%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0617	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002328	-2.28%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0635	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002567	-2.55%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1180	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002838	-3.69%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1662	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.00249	-2.62%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0376	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002065	-1.73%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3413	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002276	-1.84%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2911	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002126	-1.83%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1265	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001906	-1.60%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2474	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002225	-1.98%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1766	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002306	-2.28%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2465	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002563	-2.90%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0267	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002511	-2.75%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1683	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002905	-4.81%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4324	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002205	-3.67%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2538	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001872	-3.99%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.2947	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001898	-4.43%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1571	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001784	-4.78%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0678	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001856	-5.08%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0230	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001971	-5.55%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.0897	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001835	-5.44%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2759	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002072	-6.29%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0507	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001905	-6.23%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0065	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001653	-5.58%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.1683	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001616	-5.88%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.2007	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001499	-5.64%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.3144	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001514	-5.43%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.3661	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001981	-6.51%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0003	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001869	-6.48%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.1976	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002183	-8.35%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0599	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001283	-5.41%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.3014	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001284	-5.20%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2612	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001489	-5.37%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0133	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001587	-5.31%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0413	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001611	-5.03%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2847	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001658	-5.08%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1699	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001714	-4.93%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3244	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001959	-5.65%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3626	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001926	-5.33%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.3096	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002147	-6.80%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2732	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002129	-8.03%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.2117	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001408	-5.00%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1943	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.0013	-4.39%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3516	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001468	-5.38%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2735	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001153	-3.77%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6228	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001176	-3.81%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5326	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001294	-4.10%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5886	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.00136	-4.47%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5272	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001019	-2.09%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3453	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001025	-2.01%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2519	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001131	-2.35%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2819	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001036	-0.94%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0821	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001185	-1.68%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0128	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001298	-1.88%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0177	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001132	-1.08%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2347	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001086	-0.66%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0542	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000996296	-0.67%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0011	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001133	-0.50%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0089	✓	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001388	-0.25%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2524	✓	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.00146	-0.12%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1949	✓	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001537	+0.03%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1626	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001846	-0.48%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5099	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001566	+0.72%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3893	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001825	+0.55%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6466	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001836	+0.97%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5803	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002223	-0.14%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5391	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002274	-0.01%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5192	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002481	-0.38%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5380	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002517	-0.41%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3523	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002314	+0.15%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4302	✗	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002574	-0.42%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3317	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002693	-0.74%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3217	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003066	-1.36%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2613	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003225	-1.41%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2882	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003588	-2.04%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.2995	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003727	-2.28%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3336	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004335	-3.85%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5727	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003841	-2.68%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3257	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003663	-2.55%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2384	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003843	-3.30%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1649	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003471	-2.27%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0114	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.00349	-2.13%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0524	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003288	-1.45%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1497	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.0041	-4.71%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.1086	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002955	+1.18%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.2690	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002803	+1.86%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2677	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003397	-0.09%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1455	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002768	+2.18%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2414	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002619	+3.28%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3116	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002843	+3.00%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1617	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003477	+1.02%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2107	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003877	+0.07%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.3093	✗	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.00389	-0.55%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3982	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004159	-2.32%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3997	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.00448	-3.45%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8234	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.004868	-4.16%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0649	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005285	-5.08%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0318	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005068	-4.88%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6804	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005666	-6.99%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.7195	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004295	-3.49%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2685	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004827	-5.17%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2698	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004052	-2.44%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1808	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004284	-2.86%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2085	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004003	-1.39%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3580	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003735	-1.06%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.4087	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003837	-1.25%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.5038	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.0042	-1.82%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0701	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005003	-3.14%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0133	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005227	-3.47%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2244	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005403	-3.69%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1843	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005423	-3.64%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2430	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005873	-3.77%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.3975	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005748	-4.11%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3683	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.006025	-4.30%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.2952	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005692	-3.72%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0369	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004878	-2.74%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1644	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005829	-3.72%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0061	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006097	-4.17%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0659	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007737	-7.17%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2505	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006297	-4.54%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0225	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004261	-2.19%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.3957	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004178	-2.41%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3239	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.