XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s7

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +1d

assessed

120

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

52.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0621

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0106

actual -0.0077

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.004312	0.004281	-0.71%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004312	0.004285	-0.61%	0.004312	+0.00%	0.0070	✗	-0.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004311	-0.67%	0.004312	-0.66%	0.0046	✓	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004334	-0.72%	0.00434	-0.57%	0.0060	✓	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004271	-0.67%	0.004365	+1.53%	0.0212	✗	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004483	-0.84%	0.0043	-4.90%	0.0395	✓	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004502	-0.92%	0.004521	-0.51%	0.0037	✓	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004535	-1.01%	0.004544	-0.80%	0.0002	✓	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.0043	-0.92%	0.004581	+5.57%	0.0656	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004135	-0.73%	0.004339	+4.17%	0.0429	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.004088	-0.78%	0.004166	+1.10%	0.0235	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003987	-0.64%	0.00412	+2.69%	0.0315	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.004015	-0.71%	0.004012	-0.77%	0.0006	✓	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.004021	-0.75%	0.004044	-0.18%	0.0057	✓	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003892	-0.67%	0.004051	+3.39%	0.0406	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004111	-0.75%	0.003918	-5.42%	0.0503	✓	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004097	-0.56%	0.004142	+0.54%	0.0109	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004057	-0.50%	0.00412	+1.04%	0.0153	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004408	-0.56%	0.004078	-8.01%	0.0790	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003796	-0.54%	0.004432	+16.13%	0.1592	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004948	-0.80%	0.003817	-23.48%	0.2591	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004977	-0.80%	0.004988	-0.58%	0.0016	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.00496	-1.06%	0.005017	+0.08%	0.0197	✗	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004237	-0.73%	0.005013	+17.46%	0.1677	✗	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004503	-0.84%	0.004268	-6.02%	0.0526	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004423	-0.71%	0.004541	+1.95%	0.0216	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004583	-0.72%	0.004455	-3.51%	0.0283	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004691	-0.78%	0.004617	-2.36%	0.0144	✓	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.00506	-1.10%	0.004728	-7.58%	0.0693	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004406	-0.68%	0.005116	+15.33%	0.1495	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004336	-0.42%	0.004436	+1.88%	0.0158	✗	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004322	-0.33%	0.004354	+0.40%	0.0061	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004338	-0.78%	0.004336	-0.82%	0.0228	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004527	-0.79%	0.004372	-4.19%	0.0352	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004751	-0.89%	0.004563	-4.81%	0.0389	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005341	-1.98%	0.004794	-12.02%	0.0977	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004308	-0.84%	0.005449	+25.44%	0.2356	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003827	-0.26%	0.004344	+13.22%	0.1299	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003867	-0.20%	0.003837	-0.96%	0.0179	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003646	+0.03%	0.003874	+6.28%	0.0649	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.00307	+0.48%	0.003645	+19.30%	0.1705	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.00389	+0.15%	0.003056	-21.33%	0.2413	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003974	+0.14%	0.003884	-2.12%	0.0211	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004018	+0.21%	0.003968	-1.03%	0.0170	✗	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004897	-0.08%	0.00401	-18.19%	0.2005	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004833	-0.04%	0.004901	+1.38%	0.0123	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004723	+0.11%	0.004835	+2.48%	0.0203	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.00454	+0.23%	0.004718	+4.16%	0.0397	✓	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004754	+0.22%	0.004529	-4.52%	0.0480	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005077	+0.21%	0.004744	-6.37%	0.0727	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005014	-0.03%	0.005066	+1.01%	0.0255	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004992	-0.02%	0.005016	+0.46%	0.0044	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004671	+0.04%	0.004993	+6.93%	0.0627	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005045	-0.02%	0.004669	-7.47%	0.0747	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005103	-0.03%	0.005046	-1.14%	0.0129	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005195	-0.08%	0.005104	-1.82%	0.0163	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005383	-0.03%	0.005199	-3.45%	0.0432	✓	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.00541	-0.13%	0.005385	-0.60%	0.0004	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005225	-0.12%	0.005417	+3.57%	0.0380	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.00527	-0.12%	0.005231	-0.86%	0.0091	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005169	-0.15%	0.005276	+1.93%	0.0254	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005079	-0.16%	0.005177	+1.76%	0.0217	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004924	-0.04%	0.005087	+3.26%	0.0279	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005754	-0.46%	0.004926	-14.77%	0.1636	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005713	-0.62%	0.00578	+0.54%	0.0075	✗	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005778	-0.71%	0.005749	-1.22%	0.0114	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005848	-0.72%	0.00582	-1.20%	0.0051	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005947	-0.72%	0.00589	-1.66%	0.0121	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005949	-0.72%	0.00599	-0.04%	0.0071	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005876	-0.69%	0.005993	+1.29%	0.0197	✗	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005887	-0.70%	0.005916	-0.21%	0.0057	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.006026	-0.69%	0.005929	-2.30%	0.0163	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006427	-0.73%	0.006068	-6.27%	0.0572	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006741	-0.83%	0.006474	-4.76%	0.0400	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006721	-0.91%	0.006798	+0.23%	0.0130	✗	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006399	-0.87%	0.006782	+5.07%	0.0583	✗	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006879	-0.92%	0.006455	-7.02%	0.0636	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.007013	-0.90%	0.006942	-1.89%	0.0112	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.007236	-1.15%	0.007076	-3.33%	0.0217	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006501	-1.03%	0.00732	+11.45%	0.1186	✗	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006316	-1.05%	0.006568	+2.91%	0.0394	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.006006	-1.05%	0.006383	+5.16%	0.0609	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005895	-1.04%	0.00607	+1.90%	0.0299	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.00594	-1.15%	0.005956	-0.88%	0.0026	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005897	-1.39%	0.006009	+0.50%	0.0190	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005949	-1.34%	0.005979	-0.82%	0.0054	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005772	-1.40%	0.006029	+3.00%	0.0436	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.006036	-1.39%	0.005854	-4.37%	0.0306	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006236	-1.59%	0.006121	-3.39%	0.0196	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006214	-1.57%	0.006336	+0.36%	0.0208	✗	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.006175	-1.63%	0.006314	+0.58%	0.0225	✗	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.006106	-1.69%	0.006277	+1.07%	0.0270	✗	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.006027	-1.71%	0.006211	+1.29%	0.0301	✗	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.006235	-1.93%	0.006132	-3.54%	0.0166	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.006112	-2.21%	0.006357	+1.71%	0.0410	✗	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005698	-1.78%	0.00625	+7.74%	0.0940	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005692	-1.88%	0.005801	+0.01%	0.0187	✓	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005685	-1.96%	0.005801	+0.04%	0.0235	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005913	-2.12%	0.005798	-4.02%	0.0191	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005962	-2.37%	0.006041	-1.07%	0.0102	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006247	-3.15%	0.006107	-5.32%	0.0185	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005308	-2.43%	0.00645	+18.56%	0.1521	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005686	-3.01%	0.00544	-7.20%	0.0208	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005296	-3.42%	0.005863	+6.93%	0.1022	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004821	-3.57%	0.005483	+9.66%	0.1341	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005302	-5.28%	0.005	-10.67%	0.0735	✓	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003942	-3.43%	0.005597	+37.13%	0.3357	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003732	-3.40%	0.004082	+5.64%	0.1068	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003138	-3.16%	0.003864	+19.25%	0.2188	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003126	-3.56%	0.00324	-0.06%	0.0291	✓	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002869	-4.37%	0.003242	+8.06%	0.1143	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.002319	-5.05%	0.003	+22.84%	0.2485	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006495	-1.95%	0.002442	-63.13%	0.9949	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007118	-0.99%	0.006625	-7.85%	0.0968	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006881	-0.75%	0.007189	+3.69%	0.0196	✗	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007845	-0.86%	0.006933	-12.39%	0.0960	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008706	-0.90%	0.007913	-9.92%	0.1070	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008913	-0.88%	0.008785	-2.31%	0.0068	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.009091	-0.85%	0.008992	-1.93%	0.0098	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009237	-0.82%	0.009169	-1.55%	0.0124	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.01035	-0.98%	0.009313	-10.90%	0.0843	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.