SWM
Swarm · · gru_s7
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +30d
assessed
26
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
65.4%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2880
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.1287
actual -0.1438
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.084774 | -6.78% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.085144 | -6.25% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.085536 | -6.46% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.085697 | -6.79% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.087059 | -6.98% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.086803 | -7.27% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.087735 | -7.69% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.08213 | -7.40% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.08304 | -7.61% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.094342 | -8.94% | – | pending | – | – | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.09204 | -8.85% | – | pending | – | – | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.090944 | -9.27% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.090589 | -9.47% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.089524 | -9.47% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.089539 | -9.57% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.086764 | -9.96% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.087894 | -10.65% | – | pending | – | – | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.075658 | -10.43% | – | pending | – | – | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.082729 | -10.91% | – | pending | – | – | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.080521 | -11.32% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.082548 | -11.88% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.083125 | -12.63% | – | pending | – | – | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.095336 | -11.87% | – | pending | – | – | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.112233 | -11.45% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.109259 | -11.56% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.138543 | -12.42% | – | pending | – | – | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.112781 | -11.82% | – | pending | – | – | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.092397 | -12.35% | – | pending | – | – | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.090254 | -13.23% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.088984 | -14.34% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.079409 | -16.25% | 0.090935 | -4.09% | 0.0904 | ✓ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.086202 | -16.18% | 0.090825 | -11.68% | 0.0075 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.094881 | -16.12% | 0.091445 | -19.16% | 0.0094 | ✓ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.099545 | -16.29% | 0.09194 | -22.68% | 0.0636 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.099407 | -16.88% | 0.093595 | -21.74% | 0.0304 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.109794 | -15.09% | 0.09361 | -27.61% | 0.2233 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.119963 | -14.58% | 0.09504 | -32.33% | 0.3008 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.109586 | -15.58% | 0.08869 | -31.68% | 0.2945 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.133308 | -14.40% | 0.089875 | -42.29% | 0.4367 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.134708 | -13.99% | 0.10361 | -33.84% | 0.3413 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.160551 | -13.47% | 0.100975 | -45.58% | 0.5201 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.16887 | -13.89% | 0.10023 | -48.89% | 0.6021 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.158019 | -15.00% | 0.100065 | -46.18% | 0.5369 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.119397 | -12.66% | 0.09889 | -27.66% | 0.2414 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.119306 | -13.02% | 0.099015 | -27.82% | 0.2269 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.102644 | -12.63% | 0.096365 | -17.98% | 0.1147 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.09123 | -11.35% | 0.098365 | -4.42% | 0.0126 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.070429 | -8.51% | 0.084465 | +9.72% | 0.1102 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.069577 | -8.01% | 0.092855 | +22.76% | 0.2063 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.068137 | -7.03% | 0.090795 | +23.88% | 0.2452 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.065068 | -7.20% | 0.09368 | +33.60% | 0.2754 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.065026 | -6.81% | 0.095145 | +36.35% | 0.2887 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.065135 | -6.23% | 0.10818 | +55.74% | 0.4457 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.066622 | -6.74% | 0.12674 | +77.41% | 0.5690 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.067005 | -6.50% | 0.123535 | +72.39% | 0.5471 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.068985 | -7.56% | 0.15819 | +111.97% | 0.7482 | ✗ | 1.00 |