SWM

Swarm · · gru_s7

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +1d

assessed

54

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

50.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0748

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0095

actual +0.0042

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.09181	0.091236	-0.63%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.09088	-0.62%	0.09181	+0.40%	0.0056	✓	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091372	-0.62%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0218	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.092978	-0.66%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0145	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.092996	-0.66%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0185	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094385	-0.69%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0105	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088208	-0.54%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0628	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.08942	-0.51%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0024	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102729	-0.85%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1652	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.100229	-0.74%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0616	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.099463	-0.76%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0258	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099302	-0.76%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0255	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098248	-0.65%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0261	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098436	-0.58%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0229	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095862	-0.52%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0014	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097716	-0.66%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0631	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.084323	-0.17%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1497	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092433	-0.45%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1064	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090506	-0.32%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0646	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.093274	-0.43%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0216	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094659	-0.51%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0181	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107431	-0.69%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0930	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.12543	-1.03%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1498	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122295	-1.00%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0398	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.155455	-1.73%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2548	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.126295	-1.26%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2263	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.10451	-0.86%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2098	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.103041	-0.93%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0158	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.102822	-1.02%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0117	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.093744	-1.13%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0612	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.101649	-1.16%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0787	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.11187	-1.10%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0542	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.117533	-1.16%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0402	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.118182	-1.19%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0156	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.127799	-1.17%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1239	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.138648	-1.28%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0724	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.128237	-1.22%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0835	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.153649	-1.34%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1349	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.154413	-1.41%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0093	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.182116	-1.85%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1448	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.191562	-2.32%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0326	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.180522	-2.90%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0741	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.133838	-2.09%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3512	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.133975	-2.33%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0222	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.114571	-2.48%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1882	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.100687	-2.17%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1699	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076237	-0.96%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2937	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.075079	-0.74%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0230	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.072918	-0.51%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0564	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.070084	-0.05%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0052	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.06981	+0.04%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0056	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069504	+0.06%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0189	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.071448	+0.01%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0397	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071637	-0.03%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0045	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.074486	-0.19%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0437	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.