BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s7

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

190

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

55.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1407

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0213

actual -0.0066

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.049957	-1.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049179	-1.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.046406	-2.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.047872	-1.97%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.051955	-2.06%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.054727	-2.27%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.04386	-1.66%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043051	-1.74%	0.05086	+16.08%	0.1543	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.046798	-2.23%	0.050125	+4.72%	0.0703	✗	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.053582	-2.06%	0.047365	-13.43%	0.1244	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.064922	-1.98%	0.048835	-26.27%	0.2718	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.066619	-2.10%	0.05305	-22.04%	0.2149	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.067017	-2.20%	0.056	-18.28%	0.1709	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.064405	-2.37%	0.0446	-32.39%	0.3711	✓	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.065749	-2.58%	0.043815	-35.08%	0.3922	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.065357	-2.64%	0.047865	-28.70%	0.2894	✓	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.060576	-2.56%	0.05471	-12.00%	0.0657	✓	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.060755	-2.66%	0.066235	+6.12%	0.1128	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.060116	-2.83%	0.068045	+9.98%	0.1413	✗	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.06106	-2.83%	0.068525	+9.05%	0.1341	✗	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.063383	-2.82%	0.065965	+1.13%	0.0698	✗	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.064302	-2.81%	0.06749	+2.01%	0.0510	✗	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.065096	-2.70%	0.06713	+0.34%	0.0171	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.065455	-2.58%	0.06217	-7.47%	0.0719	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.069239	-2.43%	0.062415	-12.04%	0.1166	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.069285	-2.60%	0.06187	-13.02%	0.1153	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.067576	-2.37%	0.06284	-9.21%	0.0752	✓	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.065322	-2.34%	0.065225	-2.49%	0.0043	✓	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.062181	-2.31%	0.06616	+3.94%	0.0670	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.067464	-2.12%	0.0669	-2.94%	0.0086	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.066756	-2.09%	0.06719	-1.45%	0.0320	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.064589	-2.35%	0.07096	+7.28%	0.0679	✗	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.063979	-2.34%	0.071135	+8.59%	0.0807	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.063756	-2.18%	0.069215	+6.19%	0.0580	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.061303	-1.85%	0.06689	+7.09%	0.0303	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.060388	-1.68%	0.06365	+3.63%	0.0064	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062166	-1.64%	0.068925	+9.06%	0.0504	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.061689	-1.53%	0.06818	+8.84%	0.0581	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.06111	-1.16%	0.066145	+6.98%	0.0563	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063284	-1.17%	0.06551	+2.31%	0.0131	✗	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.063566	-1.06%	0.06518	+1.46%	0.0045	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060394	-0.32%	0.06246	+3.09%	0.0346	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061623	-0.50%	0.06142	-0.82%	0.0075	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067074	-0.88%	0.0632	-6.61%	0.0405	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.066929	-0.76%	0.062645	-7.11%	0.0601	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.066959	-0.66%	0.06183	-8.27%	0.0565	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068301	-0.66%	0.06403	-6.87%	0.0471	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068307	-0.51%	0.064245	-6.42%	0.0434	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069412	-0.31%	0.06059	-12.98%	0.1026	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.066683	-0.87%	0.06193	-7.94%	0.0806	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.066862	-0.89%	0.06767	+0.30%	0.0046	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068037	-0.49%	0.06744	-1.37%	0.0117	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067307	-0.79%	0.067405	-0.64%	0.0167	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070189	-0.58%	0.068755	-2.61%	0.0311	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071121	-0.50%	0.068655	-3.95%	0.0475	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073386	+0.17%	0.06963	-4.95%	0.0589	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.072145	-0.10%	0.06727	-6.85%	0.0590	✓	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068622	-0.56%	0.067465	-2.24%	0.0098	✓	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.071956	-0.44%	0.068375	-5.40%	0.0485	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.072924	-0.72%	0.06784	-7.64%	0.0718	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.073828	-0.82%	0.0706	-5.16%	0.0530	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.090236	-0.76%	0.07148	-21.39%	0.2302	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.082979	-1.42%	0.07326	-12.97%	0.1604	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.078809	-2.40%	0.072215	-10.56%	0.1490	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.076322	-3.36%	0.06901	-12.62%	0.1986	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.074742	-3.46%	0.072275	-6.65%	0.1412	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.075088	-3.71%	0.07345	-5.82%	0.1398	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.076708	-3.84%	0.07444	-6.68%	0.1408	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.072687	-3.20%	0.09093	+21.09%	0.1015	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.072916	-3.26%	0.084175	+11.67%	0.0655	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.07407	-3.23%	0.080745	+5.49%	0.0273	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.074216	-3.19%	0.078975	+3.02%	0.0508	✗	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.074833	-3.24%	0.07742	+0.10%	0.0276	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.071819	-3.02%	0.077985	+5.31%	0.1049	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.075007	-2.86%	0.07977	+3.31%	0.0825	✗	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.075614	-2.92%	0.07509	-3.59%	0.0145	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.081711	-3.00%	0.075375	-10.52%	0.0706	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.078096	-3.00%	0.07654	-4.93%	0.0058	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.074678	-2.65%	0.07666	-0.07%	0.0321	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.074595	-2.46%	0.07734	+1.12%	0.0311	✗	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.074115	-2.31%	0.074055	-2.39%	0.0153	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.073677	-2.02%	0.077215	+2.69%	0.0250	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.077188	-2.34%	0.07789	-1.45%	0.0120	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.077581	-2.43%	0.08424	+5.94%	0.0871	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.078371	-2.27%	0.08051	+0.39%	0.0197	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.07759	-2.04%	0.07671	-3.16%	0.0133	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.077717	-2.02%	0.07648	-3.57%	0.0138	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.085197	-2.12%	0.07587	-12.83%	0.1002	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.08285	-2.04%	0.075195	-11.10%	0.0845	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.082718	-2.01%	0.07904	-6.37%	0.0353	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.074364	-2.06%	0.079515	+4.72%	0.0699	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.082554	-2.01%	0.080195	-4.81%	0.0100	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.083744	-1.95%	0.07921	-7.26%	0.0320	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.084257	-1.84%	0.079315	-7.60%	0.0495	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.088676	-1.74%	0.08704	-3.56%	0.0239	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.09053	-1.73%	0.08458	-8.18%	0.0620	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.090176	-1.68%	0.084415	-7.96%	0.0684	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.089735	-1.75%	0.07593	-16.87%	0.1860	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.087782	-1.89%	0.08425	-5.83%	0.0555	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.085593	-2.05%	0.08541	-2.25%	0.0211	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.093045	-1.77%	0.085835	-9.39%	0.1287	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.100457	-1.69%	0.09025	-11.68%	0.1216	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.096682	-1.65%	0.09212	-6.29%	0.0652	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.102185	-1.71%	0.09172	-11.77%	0.1046	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.108947	-2.22%	0.091335	-18.03%	0.1856	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.085371	-1.93%	0.08947	+2.77%	0.0130	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.083313	-2.03%	0.08738	+2.75%	0.0262	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.093177	-1.76%	0.094725	-0.13%	0.0384	✗	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.090583	-1.92%	0.102185	+10.64%	0.1183	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.090195	-1.98%	0.098305	+6.83%	0.0763	✗	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.093117	-1.94%	0.10396	+9.48%	0.0877	✗	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.099192	-2.01%	0.11142	+10.07%	0.0913	✗	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.125929	-3.53%	0.087055	-33.31%	0.4110	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.09753	-2.67%	0.08504	-15.13%	0.2091	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.079815	-1.76%	0.09485	+16.75%	0.1046	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.079099	-1.92%	0.09236	+14.52%	0.0968	✗	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.073496	-1.84%	0.09202	+22.90%	0.1793	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.065608	-2.09%	0.09496	+41.71%	0.3333	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.069731	-1.91%	0.101225	+42.39%	0.3463	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.081887	-1.84%	0.13053	+56.47%	0.4800	✗	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.097222	-2.28%	0.1002	+0.71%	0.0773	✗	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.092541	-1.81%	0.081245	-13.79%	0.0852	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.09189	-2.00%	0.08065	-13.99%	0.0853	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.086773	-1.90%	0.074875	-15.35%	0.0942	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.095378	-2.51%	0.06701	-31.51%	0.3073	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.092812	-2.64%	0.07109	-25.43%	0.2248	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.076245	-1.99%	0.08342	+7.23%	0.1443	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.074478	-2.18%	0.09949	+30.68%	0.3364	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.076331	-2.86%	0.094245	+19.94%	0.2467	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.069911	-2.29%	0.09377	+31.06%	0.3311	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.067618	-2.15%	0.08845	+28.00%	0.2717	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.073007	-2.55%	0.097835	+30.59%	0.2937	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.071331	-2.45%	0.09533	+30.37%	0.3009	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062135	-1.15%	0.077795	+23.76%	0.1841	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.063849	-1.24%	0.076135	+17.76%	0.1233	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.063837	-1.39%	0.078575	+21.37%	0.1644	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.068903	-1.75%	0.07155	+2.02%	0.0055	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.065896	-0.76%	0.0691	+4.07%	0.0005	✓	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062059	-0.13%	0.07492	+20.57%	0.1551	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.062658	-0.59%	0.07312	+16.01%	0.1578	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069325	-1.18%	0.06286	-10.39%	0.0619	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064317	-1.02%	0.06465	-0.51%	0.0889	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.06936	-2.65%	0.06474	-9.14%	0.0595	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.069139	-3.10%	0.07013	-1.71%	0.1830	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.074016	-3.84%	0.0664	-13.74%	0.1044	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.073336	-3.95%	0.06214	-18.61%	0.0375	✓	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060525	-0.60%	0.06303	+3.51%	0.2040	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.061763	-0.73%	0.07015	+12.75%	0.2996	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.061758	-0.67%	0.06498	+4.51%	0.2066	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.067533	-1.78%	0.07125	+3.63%	0.1434	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.067619	-1.29%	0.07135	+4.16%	0.1045	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071044	-1.40%	0.076975	+6.84%	0.1233	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.070579	-0.73%	0.07635	+7.38%	0.1099	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.08129	-3.23%	0.06089	-27.51%	0.2425	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.07547	-1.54%	0.062215	-18.83%	0.1564	✓	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.07065	-0.17%	0.062175	-12.14%	0.1173	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071495	+0.01%	0.068755	-3.83%	0.0424	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070557	+0.17%	0.0685	-2.75%	0.0247	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.07558	-0.28%	0.07205	-4.93%	0.0323	✓	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.074729	-0.24%	0.0711	-5.09%	0.0094	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.085408	-1.74%	0.084	-3.36%	0.0107	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.087731	-1.24%	0.07665	-13.71%	0.1200	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.106672	-3.48%	0.07077	-35.97%	0.3939	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.101612	-2.98%	0.07149	-31.74%	0.3245	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.095652	-2.65%	0.07044	-28.31%	0.2751	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.094378	-1.97%	0.07579	-21.27%	0.2035	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.088829	-1.39%	0.07491	-16.84%	0.1635	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.090244	-1.86%	0.08692	-5.48%	0.0440	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.085843	-2.50%	0.08883	+0.89%	0.0504	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.087893	-2.90%	0.11052	+22.09%	0.2323	✗	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.091742	-3.14%	0.10473	+10.57%	0.1176	✗	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.095651	-3.34%	0.09826	-0.71%	0.0040	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.112891	-3.01%	0.09627	-17.29%	0.1740	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.106563	-3.28%	0.09008	-18.24%	0.1826	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.108679	-3.28%	0.091955	-18.17%	0.1976	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.126067	-2.94%	0.088045	-32.22%	0.4086	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.134635	-2.77%	0.09052	-34.63%	0.4554	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.132829	-3.02%	0.09472	-30.84%	0.3698	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.130426	-2.53%	0.09896	-26.04%	0.2746	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.131064	-2.68%	0.11639	-13.58%	0.1319	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.119466	-2.62%	0.11018	-10.19%	0.0908	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.131988	-2.82%	0.11237	-17.27%	0.1354	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.111849	-2.52%	0.12989	+13.20%	0.1814	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.125691	-3.80%	0.13847	+5.99%	0.0972	✗	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.109348	-4.05%	0.136965	+20.19%	0.2056	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.083333	-3.33%	0.13381	+55.23%	0.4099	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.088412	-3.08%	0.134675	+47.64%	0.3959	✗	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.118005	-4.26%	0.122685	-0.46%	0.0342	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.152989	-7.92%	0.13582	-18.25%	0.1597	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.082234	-3.86%	0.11474	+34.14%	0.2890	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.07269	-3.27%	0.13065	+73.86%	0.5575	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.063565	-3.25%	0.11396	+73.46%	0.5649	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.057662	-3.10%	0.0862	+44.86%	0.3596	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.052946	-3.18%	0.09122	+66.81%	0.5084	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.05203	-3.39%	0.12325	+128.86%	0.8077	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.05166	-3.60%	0.16615	+210.04%	1.1224	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.060036	-3.07%	0.085535	+38.09%	0.3026	✗	1.00