BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s7

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +30d

assessed

167

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

68.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2560

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0493

actual -0.0910

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.049173	-3.32%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.048359	-3.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.045374	-4.20%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.046884	-4.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.051073	-3.73%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.053866	-3.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.042724	-4.21%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.041691	-4.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.04531	-5.34%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.05208	-4.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.063578	-4.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.065168	-4.23%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.065501	-4.41%	–	pending	–	–	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.062895	-4.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.064284	-4.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.063959	-4.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.058903	-5.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.059042	-5.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.058253	-5.85%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.059211	-5.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.061502	-5.71%	–	pending	–	–	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.062389	-5.70%	–	pending	–	–	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.063402	-5.23%	–	pending	–	–	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.063842	-4.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.06794	-4.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.068203	-4.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.066187	-4.37%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.064011	-4.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.061009	-4.15%	–	pending	–	–	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.066648	-3.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.066171	-2.95%	0.05086	-25.40%	0.2313	✓	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.063479	-4.03%	0.050125	-24.22%	0.2504	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.062953	-3.90%	0.047365	-27.70%	0.2894	✓	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.062625	-3.92%	0.048835	-25.08%	0.2573	✓	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.060021	-3.91%	0.05305	-15.07%	0.1598	✓	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.059192	-3.63%	0.056	-8.82%	0.0945	✓	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.060821	-3.76%	0.0446	-29.43%	0.3436	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.060512	-3.41%	0.043815	-30.06%	0.3403	✓	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.059956	-3.03%	0.047865	-22.59%	0.2579	✓	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.062107	-3.00%	0.05471	-14.56%	0.1509	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.062523	-2.68%	0.066235	+3.10%	0.0220	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.059189	-2.31%	0.068045	+12.30%	0.1074	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.060613	-2.13%	0.068525	+10.65%	0.1020	✗	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.065894	-2.63%	0.065965	-2.52%	0.0196	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.066013	-2.12%	0.06749	+0.07%	0.0046	✓	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.066279	-1.67%	0.06713	-0.41%	0.0196	✓	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.067628	-1.64%	0.06217	-9.58%	0.1223	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.067836	-1.19%	0.062415	-9.09%	0.1302	✓	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069267	-0.52%	0.06187	-11.14%	0.1363	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.065742	-2.27%	0.06284	-6.59%	0.0925	✓	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.065939	-2.26%	0.065225	-3.32%	0.0613	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.067696	-0.99%	0.06616	-3.24%	0.0494	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.066726	-1.64%	0.0669	-1.39%	0.0371	✓	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.069855	-1.06%	0.06719	-4.83%	0.0723	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071096	-0.54%	0.07096	-0.73%	0.0447	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.074552	+1.76%	0.071135	-2.90%	0.0730	✗	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.073377	+1.61%	0.069215	-4.15%	0.0895	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.06939	+0.55%	0.06689	-3.07%	0.0726	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.073173	+1.24%	0.06365	-11.93%	0.1716	✗	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.074022	+0.78%	0.068925	-6.16%	0.1272	✗	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.075098	+0.88%	0.06818	-8.41%	0.1602	✗	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.093225	+2.52%	0.066145	-27.26%	0.3595	✗	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.082952	-1.45%	0.06551	-22.17%	0.2763	✓	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.077188	-4.40%	0.06518	-19.28%	0.2416	✓	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.073363	-7.11%	0.06246	-20.91%	0.2446	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.071647	-7.46%	0.06142	-20.67%	0.2422	✓	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.071773	-7.97%	0.0632	-18.96%	0.2294	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.073485	-7.88%	0.062645	-21.47%	0.2783	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.069199	-7.84%	0.06183	-17.66%	0.2240	✓	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.069409	-7.91%	0.06403	-15.05%	0.1902	✓	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.070612	-7.74%	0.064245	-16.06%	0.2253	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.070868	-7.56%	0.06059	-20.96%	0.2746	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.071699	-7.29%	0.06193	-19.93%	0.2927	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.068755	-7.16%	0.06767	-8.62%	0.1520	✓	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.072352	-6.30%	0.06744	-12.66%	0.2105	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.072946	-6.35%	0.067405	-13.46%	0.2318	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.07898	-6.24%	0.068755	-18.38%	0.3052	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.075395	-6.35%	0.068655	-14.72%	0.2549	✓	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.071626	-6.63%	0.06963	-9.23%	0.2007	✓	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.071432	-6.60%	0.06727	-12.04%	0.2013	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.071009	-6.41%	0.067465	-11.08%	0.1871	✓	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.070432	-6.33%	0.068375	-9.07%	0.1760	✓	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.074294	-6.00%	0.06784	-14.17%	0.2286	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.07517	-5.46%	0.0706	-11.21%	0.1914	✓	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.076071	-5.14%	0.07148	-10.87%	0.1916	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.075532	-4.64%	0.07326	-7.51%	0.1700	✓	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.075723	-4.53%	0.072215	-8.95%	0.1809	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.083406	-4.18%	0.06901	-20.71%	0.2908	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.081083	-4.13%	0.072275	-14.55%	0.2217	✓	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.080939	-4.12%	0.07345	-12.99%	0.1961	✓	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.072472	-4.55%	0.07444	-1.96%	0.0713	✓	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.080825	-4.06%	0.09093	+7.93%	0.0221	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.082121	-3.85%	0.084175	-1.45%	0.0292	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.082706	-3.65%	0.080745	-5.93%	0.0523	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.087205	-3.37%	0.078975	-12.49%	0.0991	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.089102	-3.28%	0.07742	-15.96%	0.1367	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.088819	-3.16%	0.077985	-14.97%	0.1166	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.088357	-3.26%	0.07977	-12.66%	0.0909	✓	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.086188	-3.67%	0.07509	-16.07%	0.1190	✓	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.083781	-4.12%	0.075375	-13.74%	0.0858	✓	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.091387	-3.52%	0.07654	-19.20%	0.1962	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.099076	-3.04%	0.07666	-24.98%	0.2533	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.095405	-2.95%	0.07734	-21.33%	0.2122	✓	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.101249	-2.61%	0.074055	-28.77%	0.3233	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.108256	-2.84%	0.077215	-30.70%	0.3647	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.083788	-3.75%	0.07789	-10.53%	0.1092	✓	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.081549	-4.11%	0.08424	-0.94%	0.0202	✓	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.091796	-3.22%	0.08051	-15.12%	0.1386	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.089137	-3.49%	0.07671	-16.94%	0.1567	✓	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.088699	-3.61%	0.07648	-16.89%	0.1536	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.09171	-3.42%	0.07587	-20.10%	0.2034	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.098015	-3.17%	0.075195	-25.71%	0.2840	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.125099	-4.16%	0.07904	-39.45%	0.5115	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.096614	-3.58%	0.079515	-20.64%	0.2868	✓	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.078338	-3.58%	0.080195	-1.29%	0.0427	✓	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.077652	-3.72%	0.07921	-1.79%	0.0419	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.071738	-4.19%	0.079315	+5.93%	0.0464	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.063512	-5.22%	0.08704	+29.89%	0.2396	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.067756	-4.69%	0.08458	+18.98%	0.1553	✗	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.080176	-3.89%	0.084415	+1.19%	0.0111	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.095939	-3.57%	0.07593	-23.68%	0.2600	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.091021	-3.42%	0.08425	-10.61%	0.1015	✓	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.090491	-3.50%	0.08541	-8.92%	0.0950	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.085361	-3.49%	0.085835	-2.96%	0.0063	✓	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.094201	-3.71%	0.09025	-7.75%	0.0582	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.091602	-3.91%	0.09212	-3.37%	0.0186	✓	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.075021	-3.57%	0.09172	+17.90%	0.2094	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.073245	-3.80%	0.091335	+19.96%	0.2495	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.075188	-4.31%	0.08947	+13.87%	0.1979	✗	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.068546	-4.20%	0.08738	+22.12%	0.2535	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.066281	-4.08%	0.094725	+37.08%	0.3900	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.07153	-4.52%	0.102185	+36.39%	0.3535	✗	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.06972	-4.65%	0.098305	+34.44%	0.3403	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.060694	-3.45%	0.10396	+65.38%	0.5017	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.0623	-3.63%	0.11142	+72.34%	0.5610	✗	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.06217	-3.97%	0.087055	+34.47%	0.3482	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.06707	-4.36%	0.08504	+21.26%	0.2371	✗	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.064101	-3.46%	0.09485	+42.85%	0.3504	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.0602	-3.12%	0.09236	+48.63%	0.3942	✗	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.060527	-3.97%	0.09202	+45.99%	0.4289	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.066851	-4.70%	0.09496	+35.37%	0.3719	✗	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.061604	-5.19%	0.101225	+55.78%	0.5839	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.065992	-7.38%	0.13053	+83.20%	0.8631	✗	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.065459	-8.26%	0.1002	+40.43%	0.6825	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.070178	-8.83%	0.081245	+5.55%	0.3720	✗	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.069633	-8.80%	0.08065	+5.63%	0.3786	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.056933	-6.50%	0.074875	+22.97%	0.5096	✗	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.058018	-6.75%	0.06701	+7.71%	0.3917	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.05789	-6.89%	0.07109	+14.34%	0.4943	✗	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.063425	-7.75%	0.08342	+21.33%	0.5398	✗	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.063502	-7.30%	0.09949	+45.24%	0.6804	✗	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.066809	-7.27%	0.094245	+30.80%	0.5483	✗	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.066293	-6.76%	0.09377	+31.88%	0.5446	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.076595	-8.82%	0.08845	+5.30%	0.3077	✗	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.070827	-7.60%	0.097835	+27.64%	0.4989	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.066119	-6.57%	0.09533	+34.70%	0.5348	✗	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.066982	-6.31%	0.077795	+8.82%	0.3000	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.066055	-6.23%	0.076135	+8.08%	0.2855	✗	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.07088	-6.48%	0.078575	+3.67%	0.2385	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.069952	-6.62%	0.07155	-4.49%	0.1822	✗	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.080249	-7.68%	0.0691	-20.50%	0.0085	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.082366	-7.28%	0.07492	-15.66%	0.0491	✓	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.101684	-8.00%	0.07312	-33.84%	0.2477	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.096698	-7.67%	0.06286	-39.98%	0.3024	✓	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.09087	-7.52%	0.06465	-34.21%	0.1930	✓	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.089075	-7.47%	0.06474	-32.75%	0.1981	✓	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.083488	-7.32%	0.07013	-22.15%	0.0596	✓	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.085041	-7.52%	0.0664	-27.79%	0.1153	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.080782	-8.25%	0.06214	-29.42%	0.0875	✓	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.082831	-8.49%	0.06303	-30.37%	0.1287	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.086687	-8.48%	0.07015	-25.94%	0.0710	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.090582	-8.47%	0.06498	-34.34%	0.2201	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.108516	-6.76%	0.07125	-38.78%	0.3623	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.101746	-7.66%	0.07135	-35.24%	0.3186	✓	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.103745	-7.68%	0.076975	-31.50%	0.2767	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.121586	-6.39%	0.07635	-41.22%	0.4434	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.130573	-5.70%	0.06089	-56.03%	0.7254	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.129931	-5.14%	0.062215	-54.58%	0.6962	✓	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.127842	-4.46%	0.062175	-53.53%	0.6840	✓	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.128079	-4.90%	0.068755	-48.95%	0.6169	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.116476	-5.06%	0.0685	-44.17%	0.5246	✓	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.129942	-4.33%	0.07205	-46.95%	0.5687	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.10962	-4.46%	0.0711	-38.03%	0.3969	✓	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.123521	-5.46%	0.084	-35.71%	0.4012	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.107241	-5.90%	0.07665	-32.74%	0.3568	✓	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.080178	-6.99%	0.07077	-17.90%	0.1639	✓	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.086082	-5.63%	0.07149	-21.63%	0.2016	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.116225	-5.70%	0.07044	-42.85%	0.5048	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.148535	-10.60%	0.07579	-54.38%	0.7113	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.080786	-5.55%	0.07491	-12.42%	0.1304	✓	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.071223	-5.22%	0.08692	+15.67%	0.1102	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.062439	-4.96%	0.08883	+35.21%	0.2895	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.055668	-6.45%	0.11052	+85.73%	0.5569	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.050998	-6.74%	0.10473	+91.52%	0.6078	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.04997	-7.21%	0.09826	+82.45%	0.5575	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.04944	-7.74%	0.09627	+79.64%	0.5501	✗	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.057999	-6.36%	0.09008	+45.43%	0.3198	✗	1.00