BASED

Based · Ethereum · gru_s7

token id: #838
symbol: BASED
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x4f2b33840227ddd0e28da8d4185d6fa07adfed87
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-03-30
predictions: 591

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

196

of 197 predictions shown

direction hit

53.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0602

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0053

actual -0.0012

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.05086	0.050676	-0.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.81
2026-10-20	oos	0.050125	0.049954	-0.34%	0.05086	+1.47%	0.0205	✗	0.86
2026-10-19	oos	0.047365	0.047246	-0.25%	0.050125	+5.83%	0.0480	✗	0.84
2026-10-18	oos	0.048835	0.048736	-0.20%	0.047365	-3.01%	0.0268	✓	0.83
2026-10-17	oos	0.05305	0.052843	-0.39%	0.048835	-7.95%	0.0853	✓	0.83
2026-10-16	oos	0.056	0.055653	-0.62%	0.05305	-5.27%	0.0467	✓	0.83
2026-10-15	oos	0.0446	0.044559	-0.09%	0.056	+25.56%	0.2354	✗	0.90
2026-10-14	oos	0.043815	0.043777	-0.09%	0.0446	+1.79%	0.0125	✗	0.90
2026-10-13	oos	0.047865	0.047761	-0.22%	0.043815	-8.46%	0.0706	✓	0.84
2026-10-12	oos	0.05471	0.05455	-0.29%	0.047865	-12.51%	0.1454	✓	0.89
2026-10-11	oos	0.066235	0.065957	-0.42%	0.05471	-17.40%	0.1719	✓	0.64
2026-10-10	oos	0.068045	0.067738	-0.45%	0.066235	-2.66%	0.0288	✓	0.69
2026-10-09	oos	0.068525	0.068201	-0.47%	0.068045	-0.70%	0.0053	✓	0.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.065965	0.065594	-0.56%	0.068525	+3.88%	0.0366	✗	0.69
2026-10-07	oos	0.06749	0.067	-0.73%	0.065965	-2.26%	0.0029	✓	0.66
2026-10-06	oos	0.06713	0.066594	-0.80%	0.06749	+0.54%	0.0339	✗	0.77
2026-10-05	oos	0.06217	0.061827	-0.55%	0.06713	+7.98%	0.0841	✗	0.75
2026-10-04	oos	0.062415	0.062081	-0.53%	0.06217	-0.39%	0.0084	✗	0.79
2026-10-03	oos	0.06187	0.06155	-0.52%	0.062415	+0.88%	0.0025	✓	0.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.06284	0.062527	-0.50%	0.06187	-1.54%	0.0128	✓	0.80
2026-10-01	oos	0.065225	0.064899	-0.50%	0.06284	-3.66%	0.0290	✓	0.79
2026-09-30	oos	0.06616	0.065847	-0.47%	0.065225	-1.41%	0.0213	✓	0.77
2026-09-29	oos	0.0669	0.066572	-0.49%	0.06616	-1.11%	0.0056	✓	0.61
2026-09-28	oos	0.06719	0.066882	-0.46%	0.0669	-0.43%	0.0014	✓	0.75
2026-09-27	oos	0.07096	0.070571	-0.55%	0.06719	-5.31%	0.0426	✓	0.54
2026-09-26	oos	0.071135	0.070575	-0.79%	0.07096	-0.25%	0.0051	✓	0.54
2026-09-25	oos	0.069215	0.068849	-0.53%	0.071135	+2.77%	0.0307	✗	0.51
2026-09-24	oos	0.06689	0.066572	-0.47%	0.069215	+3.48%	0.0407	✗	0.51
2026-09-23	oos	0.06365	0.063392	-0.41%	0.06689	+5.09%	0.0537	✗	0.51
2026-09-22	oos	0.068925	0.06861	-0.46%	0.06365	-7.65%	0.0630	✓	0.56
2026-09-21	oos	0.06818	0.067851	-0.48%	0.068925	+1.09%	0.0189	✗	0.69
2026-09-20	oos	0.066145	0.065795	-0.53%	0.06818	+3.08%	0.0069	✓	0.66
2026-09-19	oos	0.06551	0.065136	-0.57%	0.066145	+0.97%	0.0160	✗	0.66
2026-09-18	oos	0.06518	0.064876	-0.47%	0.06551	+0.51%	0.0070	✗	0.62
2026-09-17	oos	0.06246	0.062245	-0.34%	0.06518	+4.35%	0.0133	✗	0.57
2026-09-16	oos	0.06142	0.061217	-0.33%	0.06246	+1.69%	0.0186	✗	0.57
2026-09-15	oos	0.0632	0.062987	-0.34%	0.06142	-2.82%	0.0282	✓	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.062645	0.062476	-0.27%	0.0632	+0.89%	0.0254	✗	0.41
2026-09-13	oos	0.06183	0.061718	-0.18%	0.062645	+1.32%	0.0076	✗	0.41
2026-09-12	oos	0.06403	0.063909	-0.19%	0.06183	-3.44%	0.0305	✓	0.43
2026-09-11	oos	0.064245	0.064088	-0.24%	0.06403	-0.33%	0.0012	✓	0.44
2026-09-10	oos	0.06059	0.060589	-0.00%	0.064245	+6.03%	0.0551	✗	0.40
2026-09-09	oos	0.06193	0.061864	-0.11%	0.06059	-2.16%	0.0120	✓	0.39
2026-09-08	oos	0.06767	0.067524	-0.22%	0.06193	-8.48%	0.0854	✓	0.51
2026-09-07	oos	0.06744	0.067293	-0.22%	0.06767	+0.34%	0.0098	✗	0.52
2026-09-06	oos	0.067405	0.067266	-0.21%	0.06744	+0.05%	0.0106	✗	0.52
2026-09-05	oos	0.068755	0.068609	-0.21%	0.067405	-1.96%	0.0211	✓	0.53
2026-09-04	oos	0.068655	0.068523	-0.19%	0.068755	+0.15%	0.0023	✗	0.57
2026-09-03	oos	0.06963	0.069502	-0.18%	0.068655	-1.40%	0.0013	✓	0.56
2026-09-02	oos	0.06727	0.067109	-0.24%	0.06963	+3.51%	0.0103	✗	0.53
2026-09-01	oos	0.067465	0.067303	-0.24%	0.06727	-0.29%	0.0002	✓	0.55
2026-08-31	oos	0.068375	0.068236	-0.20%	0.067465	-1.33%	0.0049	✓	0.43
2026-08-30	oos	0.06784	0.067675	-0.24%	0.068375	+0.79%	0.0041	✗	0.54
2026-08-29	oos	0.0706	0.070441	-0.23%	0.06784	-3.91%	0.0339	✓	0.52
2026-08-28	oos	0.07148	0.071345	-0.19%	0.0706	-1.23%	0.0131	✓	0.52
2026-08-27	oos	0.07326	0.073179	-0.11%	0.07148	-2.43%	0.0075	✓	0.52
2026-08-26	oos	0.072215	0.07213	-0.12%	0.07326	+1.45%	0.0077	✗	0.50
2026-08-25	oos	0.06901	0.068925	-0.12%	0.072215	+4.64%	0.0435	✗	0.50
2026-08-24	oos	0.072275	0.072188	-0.12%	0.06901	-4.52%	0.0422	✓	0.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.07345	0.073342	-0.15%	0.072275	-1.60%	0.0233	✓	0.54
2026-08-22	oos	0.07444	0.074295	-0.19%	0.07345	-1.33%	0.0162	✓	0.54
2026-08-21	oos	0.09093	0.09043	-0.55%	0.07444	-18.13%	0.1871	✓	0.46
2026-08-20	oos	0.084175	0.083834	-0.41%	0.09093	+8.02%	0.0547	✗	0.38
2026-08-19	oos	0.080745	0.080315	-0.53%	0.084175	+4.25%	0.0224	✗	0.47
2026-08-18	oos	0.078975	0.078431	-0.69%	0.080745	+2.24%	0.0057	✓	0.50
2026-08-17	oos	0.07742	0.076901	-0.67%	0.078975	+2.01%	0.0249	✗	0.53
2026-08-16	oos	0.077985	0.077276	-0.91%	0.07742	-0.72%	0.0124	✓	0.55
2026-08-15	oos	0.07977	0.078891	-1.10%	0.077985	-2.24%	0.0100	✓	0.55
2026-08-14	oos	0.07509	0.074591	-0.66%	0.07977	+6.23%	0.0667	✗	0.56
2026-08-13	oos	0.075375	0.074873	-0.67%	0.07509	-0.38%	0.0068	✗	0.56
2026-08-12	oos	0.07654	0.076033	-0.66%	0.075375	-1.52%	0.0088	✓	0.66
2026-08-11	oos	0.07666	0.076138	-0.68%	0.07654	-0.16%	0.0065	✓	0.63
2026-08-10	oos	0.07734	0.076735	-0.78%	0.07666	-0.88%	0.0033	✓	0.72
2026-08-09	oos	0.074055	0.073594	-0.62%	0.07734	+4.44%	0.0601	✗	0.71
2026-08-08	oos	0.077215	0.076718	-0.64%	0.074055	-4.09%	0.0347	✓	0.71
2026-08-07	oos	0.07789	0.077342	-0.70%	0.077215	-0.87%	0.0018	✓	0.72
2026-08-06	oos	0.08424	0.083556	-0.81%	0.07789	-7.54%	0.0776	✓	0.77
2026-08-05	oos	0.08051	0.079843	-0.83%	0.08424	+4.63%	0.0576	✗	0.77
2026-08-04	oos	0.07671	0.076217	-0.64%	0.08051	+4.95%	0.0486	✗	0.72
2026-08-03	oos	0.07648	0.076018	-0.60%	0.07671	+0.30%	0.0025	✓	0.72
2026-08-02	oos	0.07587	0.075446	-0.56%	0.07648	+0.80%	0.0140	✗	0.69
2026-08-01	oos	0.075195	0.074837	-0.48%	0.07587	+0.90%	0.0061	✗	0.65
2026-07-31	oos	0.07904	0.078553	-0.62%	0.075195	-4.86%	0.0431	✓	0.65
2026-07-30	oos	0.079515	0.079005	-0.64%	0.07904	-0.60%	0.0206	✗	0.68
2026-07-29	oos	0.080195	0.079707	-0.61%	0.079515	-0.85%	0.0108	✓	0.66
2026-07-28	oos	0.07921	0.078791	-0.53%	0.080195	+1.24%	0.0172	✗	0.61
2026-07-27	oos	0.079315	0.078909	-0.51%	0.07921	-0.13%	0.0023	✓	0.62
2026-07-26	oos	0.08704	0.08653	-0.59%	0.079315	-8.88%	0.0730	✓	0.55
2026-07-25	oos	0.08458	0.084099	-0.57%	0.08704	+2.91%	0.0260	✗	0.52
2026-07-24	oos	0.084415	0.08394	-0.56%	0.08458	+0.20%	0.0059	✗	0.51
2026-07-23	oos	0.07593	0.07557	-0.47%	0.084415	+11.17%	0.1194	✗	0.58
2026-07-22	oos	0.08425	0.083824	-0.51%	0.07593	-9.88%	0.0900	✓	0.56
2026-07-21	oos	0.08541	0.084997	-0.48%	0.08425	-1.36%	0.0051	✓	0.58
2026-07-20	oos	0.085835	0.085438	-0.46%	0.08541	-0.50%	0.0095	✓	0.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.09025	0.089828	-0.47%	0.085835	-4.89%	0.0497	✓	0.52
2026-07-18	oos	0.09212	0.091693	-0.46%	0.09025	-2.03%	0.0145	✓	0.77
2026-07-17	oos	0.09172	0.091306	-0.45%	0.09212	+0.44%	0.0024	✓	0.81
2026-07-16	oos	0.091335	0.090886	-0.49%	0.09172	+0.42%	0.0073	✗	0.95
2026-07-15	oos	0.08947	0.089033	-0.49%	0.091335	+2.08%	0.0357	✗	0.69
2026-07-14	oos	0.08738	0.086961	-0.48%	0.08947	+2.39%	0.0319	✗	0.82
2026-07-13	oos	0.094725	0.094287	-0.46%	0.08738	-7.75%	0.1205	✓	1.04
2026-07-12	oos	0.102185	0.101689	-0.49%	0.094725	-7.30%	0.0478	✓	0.99
2026-07-11	oos	0.098305	0.097885	-0.43%	0.102185	+3.95%	0.0435	✗	1.06
2026-07-10	oos	0.10396	0.103398	-0.54%	0.098305	-5.44%	0.0453	✓	0.94
2026-07-09	oos	0.11142	0.110356	-0.95%	0.10396	-6.70%	0.0746	✓	0.99
2026-07-08	oos	0.087055	0.086655	-0.46%	0.11142	+27.99%	0.2384	✗	0.87
2026-07-07	oos	0.08504	0.084708	-0.39%	0.087055	+2.37%	0.0416	✗	0.83
2026-07-06	oos	0.09485	0.094469	-0.40%	0.08504	-10.34%	0.0967	✓	0.80
2026-07-05	oos	0.09236	0.091959	-0.43%	0.09485	+2.70%	0.0251	✗	0.89
2026-07-04	oos	0.09202	0.091605	-0.45%	0.09236	+0.37%	0.0011	✓	0.90
2026-07-03	oos	0.09496	0.094513	-0.47%	0.09202	-3.10%	0.0347	✓	0.89
2026-07-02	oos	0.101225	0.100606	-0.61%	0.09496	-6.19%	0.0731	✓	0.92
2026-07-01	oos	0.13053	0.128191	-1.79%	0.101225	-22.45%	0.2643	✓	1.12
2026-06-30	oos	0.1002	0.099007	-1.19%	0.13053	+30.27%	0.2542	✗	0.91
2026-06-29	oos	0.081245	0.080963	-0.35%	0.1002	+23.33%	0.2435	✗	1.10
2026-06-28	oos	0.08065	0.080234	-0.52%	0.081245	+0.74%	0.0025	✓	0.87
2026-06-27	oos	0.074875	0.074616	-0.35%	0.08065	+7.71%	0.0846	✗	0.89
2026-06-26	oos	0.06701	0.066849	-0.24%	0.074875	+11.74%	0.1144	✗	0.89
2026-06-25	oos	0.07109	0.070929	-0.23%	0.06701	-5.74%	0.0613	✓	0.90
2026-06-24	oos	0.08342	0.083127	-0.35%	0.07109	-14.78%	0.1392	✓	0.81
2026-06-23	oos	0.09949	0.098668	-0.83%	0.08342	-16.15%	0.1493	✓	0.69
2026-06-22	oos	0.094245	0.093839	-0.43%	0.09949	+5.57%	0.0737	✗	0.74
2026-06-21	oos	0.09377	0.093236	-0.57%	0.094245	+0.51%	0.0025	✓	0.74
2026-06-20	oos	0.08845	0.088079	-0.42%	0.09377	+6.01%	0.0746	✗	0.77
2026-06-19	oos	0.097835	0.096936	-0.92%	0.08845	-9.59%	0.1011	✓	0.81
2026-06-18	oos	0.09533	0.094372	-1.00%	0.097835	+2.63%	0.0284	✗	0.81
2026-06-17	oos	0.077795	0.077446	-0.45%	0.09533	+22.54%	0.2320	✗	0.98
2026-06-16	oos	0.076135	0.075758	-0.50%	0.077795	+2.18%	0.0447	✗	1.01
2026-06-15	oos	0.078575	0.077806	-0.98%	0.076135	-3.11%	0.0117	✓	1.01
2026-06-14	oos	0.07155	0.071178	-0.52%	0.078575	+9.82%	0.0904	✗	0.98
2026-06-13	oos	0.0691	0.068764	-0.49%	0.07155	+3.55%	0.0208	✗	0.96
2026-06-12	oos	0.07492	0.074324	-0.80%	0.0691	-7.77%	0.0869	✓	1.01
2026-06-11	oos	0.07312	0.072569	-0.75%	0.07492	+2.46%	0.0323	✗	1.01
2026-06-10	oos	0.06286	0.062711	-0.24%	0.07312	+16.32%	0.1246	✗	0.85
2026-06-09	oos	0.06465	0.064484	-0.26%	0.06286	-2.77%	0.0222	✓	0.85
2026-06-08	oos	0.06474	0.064565	-0.27%	0.06465	-0.14%	0.0206	✗	0.87
2026-06-07	oos	0.07013	0.069815	-0.45%	0.06474	-7.69%	0.0722	✓	0.86
2026-06-06	oos	0.0664	0.066299	-0.15%	0.07013	+5.62%	0.0237	✗	0.82
2026-06-05	oos	0.06214	0.062174	+0.05%	0.0664	+6.86%	0.0682	✓	0.83
2026-06-04	oos	0.06303	0.063023	-0.01%	0.06214	-1.41%	0.0251	✗	0.88
2026-06-03	oos	0.07015	0.069986	-0.23%	0.06303	-10.15%	0.1015	✓	0.87
2026-06-02	oos	0.06498	0.064922	-0.09%	0.07015	+7.96%	0.1207	✗	1.08
2026-06-01	oos	0.07125	0.070891	-0.50%	0.06498	-8.80%	0.0166	✓	1.04
2026-05-31	oos	0.07135	0.070914	-0.61%	0.07125	-0.14%	0.0397	✗	1.12
2026-05-30	oos	0.076975	0.076166	-1.05%	0.07135	-7.31%	0.0624	✓	1.11
2026-05-29	oos	0.07635	0.075328	-1.34%	0.076975	+0.82%	0.0156	✗	1.10
2026-05-28	oos	0.06089	0.060912	+0.04%	0.07635	+25.39%	0.2282	✓	1.15
2026-05-27	oos	0.062215	0.06222	+0.01%	0.06089	-2.13%	0.0090	✗	1.16
2026-05-26	oos	0.062175	0.062206	+0.05%	0.062215	+0.06%	0.0245	✓	1.21
2026-05-25	oos	0.068755	0.068592	-0.24%	0.062175	-9.57%	0.0773	✓	1.12
2026-05-24	oos	0.0685	0.068444	-0.08%	0.068755	+0.37%	0.0006	✓	1.12
2026-05-23	oos	0.07205	0.071975	-0.10%	0.0685	-4.93%	0.0543	✓	1.13
2026-05-22	oos	0.0711	0.071142	+0.06%	0.07205	+1.34%	0.0051	✗	1.12
2026-05-21	oos	0.084	0.083301	-0.83%	0.0711	-15.36%	0.1345	✓	0.87
2026-05-20	oos	0.07665	0.076463	-0.24%	0.084	+9.59%	0.0932	✗	0.88
2026-05-19	oos	0.07077	0.070883	+0.16%	0.07665	+8.31%	0.0704	✓	0.85
2026-05-18	oos	0.07149	0.071642	+0.21%	0.07077	-1.01%	0.0103	✗	0.85
2026-05-17	oos	0.07044	0.070638	+0.28%	0.07149	+1.49%	0.0172	✓	0.87
2026-05-16	oos	0.07579	0.075952	+0.21%	0.07044	-7.06%	0.0679	✗	0.82
2026-05-15	oos	0.07491	0.075118	+0.28%	0.07579	+1.17%	0.0194	✓	0.86
2026-05-14	oos	0.08692	0.086858	-0.07%	0.07491	-13.82%	0.1325	✓	0.61
2026-05-13	oos	0.08883	0.088849	+0.02%	0.08692	-2.15%	0.0365	✗	0.65
2026-05-12	oos	0.11052	0.10956	-0.87%	0.08883	-19.63%	0.2045	✓	0.35
2026-05-11	oos	0.10473	0.104049	-0.65%	0.11052	+5.53%	0.0672	✗	0.45
2026-05-10	oos	0.09826	0.097535	-0.74%	0.10473	+6.58%	0.0741	✗	0.51
2026-05-09	oos	0.09627	0.095804	-0.48%	0.09826	+2.07%	0.0160	✗	0.49
2026-05-08	oos	0.09008	0.089875	-0.23%	0.09627	+6.87%	0.0659	✗	0.49
2026-05-07	oos	0.091955	0.091639	-0.34%	0.09008	-2.04%	0.0183	✓	0.48
2026-05-06	oos	0.088045	0.087691	-0.40%	0.091955	+4.44%	0.0582	✗	0.61
2026-05-05	oos	0.09052	0.090093	-0.47%	0.088045	-2.73%	0.0270	✓	0.61
2026-05-04	oos	0.09472	0.094205	-0.54%	0.09052	-4.43%	0.0483	✓	0.64
2026-05-03	oos	0.09896	0.098336	-0.63%	0.09472	-4.28%	0.0486	✓	0.68
2026-05-02	oos	0.11639	0.115492	-0.77%	0.09896	-14.98%	0.1536	✓	0.59
2026-05-01	oos	0.11018	0.109423	-0.69%	0.11639	+5.64%	0.0583	✗	0.59
2026-04-30	oos	0.11237	0.111627	-0.66%	0.11018	-1.95%	0.0291	✓	0.64
2026-04-29	oos	0.12989	0.128906	-0.76%	0.11237	-13.49%	0.1423	✓	0.69
2026-04-28	oos	0.13847	0.137383	-0.78%	0.12989	-6.20%	0.0487	✓	1.00
2026-04-27	oos	0.136965	0.135362	-1.17%	0.13847	+1.10%	0.0363	✗	1.00
2026-04-26	oos	0.13381	0.132559	-0.93%	0.136965	+2.36%	0.0495	✗	1.00
2026-04-25	oos	0.134675	0.133402	-0.95%	0.13381	-0.64%	0.0100	✓	1.00
2026-04-24	oos	0.122685	0.1217	-0.80%	0.134675	+9.77%	0.0989	✗	1.00
2026-04-23	oos	0.13582	0.134238	-1.16%	0.122685	-9.67%	0.0795	✓	1.00
2026-04-22	oos	0.11474	0.113851	-0.77%	0.13582	+18.37%	0.1755	✗	1.00
2026-04-21	oos	0.13065	0.128457	-1.68%	0.11474	-12.18%	0.1370	✓	1.00
2026-04-20	oos	0.11396	0.111922	-1.79%	0.13065	+14.65%	0.1484	✗	1.00
2026-04-19	oos	0.0862	0.085585	-0.71%	0.11396	+32.20%	0.2591	✗	1.00
2026-04-18	oos	0.09122	0.09046	-0.83%	0.0862	-5.50%	0.0226	✓	1.00
2026-04-17	oos	0.12325	0.120831	-1.96%	0.09122	-25.99%	0.2633	✓	1.00
2026-04-16	oos	0.16615	0.159094	-4.25%	0.12325	-25.82%	0.2807	✓	1.00
2026-04-15	oos	0.085535	0.084198	-1.56%	0.16615	+94.25%	0.6754	✗	1.00
2026-04-14	oos	0.075145	0.074319	-1.10%	0.085535	+13.83%	0.1317	✗	1.00
2026-04-13	oos	0.0657	0.064933	-1.17%	0.075145	+14.38%	0.1497	✗	1.00
2026-04-12	oos	0.059505	0.05905	-0.76%	0.0657	+10.41%	0.0559	✗	1.00
2026-04-11	oos	0.054685	0.054336	-0.64%	0.059505	+8.81%	0.1233	✗	1.00
2026-04-10	oos	0.053855	0.053516	-0.63%	0.054685	+1.54%	0.0204	✗	1.00
2026-04-09	oos	0.05359	0.053258	-0.62%	0.053855	+0.49%	0.0054	✓	1.00
2026-04-08	oos	0.06194	0.061569	-0.60%	0.05359	-13.48%	0.1488	✓	1.00