XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s6

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +7d

assessed

114

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

54.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1852

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0387

actual -0.0468

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.004312	0.004159	-3.53%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004312	0.004158	-3.57%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004181	-3.66%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004208	-3.61%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004135	-3.83%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004333	-4.17%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004342	-4.46%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004363	-4.76%	0.004312	-5.88%	0.0040	✓	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004129	-4.84%	0.004312	-0.64%	0.0525	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.003961	-4.92%	0.00434	+4.19%	0.0909	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.003916	-4.97%	0.004365	+5.95%	0.1091	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003814	-4.96%	0.0043	+7.15%	0.1187	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003838	-5.09%	0.004521	+11.81%	0.1637	✗	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003841	-5.19%	0.004544	+12.18%	0.1681	✗	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003713	-5.23%	0.004581	+16.92%	0.2103	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.003937	-4.95%	0.004339	+4.75%	0.0949	✗	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.003968	-3.70%	0.004166	+1.11%	0.0485	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003937	-3.44%	0.00412	+1.05%	0.0438	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004326	-2.40%	0.004012	-9.48%	0.0796	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003658	-4.16%	0.004044	+5.94%	0.0958	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004836	-3.06%	0.004051	-18.79%	0.1816	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004881	-2.72%	0.003918	-21.90%	0.2260	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004845	-3.35%	0.004142	-17.37%	0.1585	✓	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004122	-3.41%	0.00412	-3.46%	0.0120	✓	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004401	-3.09%	0.004078	-10.21%	0.0620	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.00435	-2.35%	0.004432	-0.50%	0.0285	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.00452	-2.10%	0.003817	-17.32%	0.1674	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004635	-1.97%	0.004988	+5.50%	0.0755	✗	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.005034	-1.60%	0.005017	-1.93%	0.0010	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004373	-1.41%	0.005013	+13.01%	0.1325	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004323	-0.70%	0.004268	-1.98%	0.0228	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004313	-0.53%	0.004541	+4.73%	0.0416	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004267	-2.40%	0.004455	+1.88%	0.0573	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004473	-1.97%	0.004617	+1.17%	0.0457	✗	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004698	-2.01%	0.004728	-1.38%	0.0194	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005189	-4.78%	0.005116	-6.12%	0.0040	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.00433	-0.33%	0.004436	+2.11%	0.0427	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003866	+0.75%	0.004354	+13.47%	0.1748	✓	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003916	+1.07%	0.004336	+11.93%	0.1331	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003717	+1.98%	0.004372	+19.94%	0.1755	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.00315	+3.10%	0.004563	+49.34%	0.3803	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003934	+1.30%	0.004794	+23.43%	0.2070	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.004031	+1.58%	0.005449	+37.31%	0.3009	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004084	+1.86%	0.004344	+8.34%	0.0561	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.00492	+0.38%	0.003837	-21.71%	0.2569	✗	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004857	+0.46%	0.003874	-19.87%	0.2286	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004756	+0.81%	0.003645	-22.73%	0.2748	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004584	+1.22%	0.003056	-32.54%	0.4123	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004804	+1.27%	0.003884	-18.12%	0.2189	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005123	+1.13%	0.003968	-21.67%	0.2701	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.00503	+0.29%	0.00401	-20.06%	0.2230	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.005027	+0.68%	0.004901	-1.83%	0.0212	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.00469	+0.44%	0.004835	+3.54%	0.0322	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005041	-0.10%	0.004718	-6.51%	0.0583	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005092	-0.24%	0.004529	-11.27%	0.1124	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005175	-0.47%	0.004744	-8.76%	0.0815	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005404	+0.35%	0.005066	-5.91%	0.0611	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005399	-0.35%	0.005016	-7.41%	0.0796	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.00519	-0.78%	0.004993	-4.55%	0.0429	✓	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005237	-0.74%	0.004669	-11.50%	0.1163	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005094	-1.60%	0.005046	-2.52%	0.0096	✓	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.004967	-2.35%	0.005104	+0.35%	0.0320	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004809	-2.39%	0.005199	+5.53%	0.0763	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.00554	-4.15%	0.005385	-6.84%	0.0397	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.00544	-5.37%	0.005417	-5.76%	0.0146	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005494	-5.60%	0.005231	-10.11%	0.0665	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005552	-5.74%	0.005276	-10.42%	0.0691	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005648	-5.70%	0.005177	-13.58%	0.1078	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005663	-5.51%	0.005087	-15.11%	0.1271	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.0056	-5.35%	0.004926	-16.73%	0.1490	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005607	-5.43%	0.00578	-2.51%	0.0159	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.00574	-5.41%	0.005749	-5.27%	0.0077	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006128	-5.34%	0.00582	-10.11%	0.0535	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.00643	-5.40%	0.00589	-13.35%	0.0885	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006391	-5.77%	0.00599	-11.68%	0.0614	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.00606	-6.11%	0.005993	-7.16%	0.0080	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006525	-6.01%	0.005916	-14.78%	0.0946	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006656	-5.94%	0.005929	-16.21%	0.1141	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006864	-6.23%	0.006068	-17.10%	0.1212	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006137	-6.56%	0.006474	-1.44%	0.0536	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.005958	-6.66%	0.006798	+6.50%	0.1320	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005651	-6.89%	0.006782	+11.74%	0.1828	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005553	-6.77%	0.006455	+8.37%	0.1525	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005605	-6.73%	0.006942	+15.52%	0.2158	✗	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005564	-6.96%	0.007076	+18.34%	0.2405	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005635	-6.55%	0.00732	+21.41%	0.2619	✗	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005477	-6.44%	0.006568	+12.21%	0.1818	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005747	-6.11%	0.006383	+4.27%	0.1048	✗	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005956	-6.00%	0.00607	-4.21%	0.0176	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.005944	-5.86%	0.005956	-5.66%	0.0000	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005915	-5.78%	0.006009	-4.27%	0.0140	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005855	-5.73%	0.005979	-3.72%	0.0208	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005783	-5.69%	0.006029	-1.67%	0.0418	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005983	-5.88%	0.005854	-7.92%	0.0220	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005855	-6.33%	0.006121	-2.07%	0.0424	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005442	-6.19%	0.006336	+9.22%	0.1540	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005437	-6.28%	0.006314	+8.84%	0.1481	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005423	-6.47%	0.006277	+8.26%	0.1470	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005641	-6.62%	0.006211	+2.81%	0.1008	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005694	-6.75%	0.006132	+0.41%	0.0783	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.005971	-7.43%	0.006357	-1.44%	0.0395	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005051	-7.16%	0.00625	+14.89%	0.1669	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005431	-7.37%	0.005801	-1.05%	0.0513	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005059	-7.74%	0.005801	+5.80%	0.1209	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004615	-7.70%	0.005798	+15.97%	0.2320	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005093	-9.01%	0.006041	+7.93%	0.1614	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003838	-5.98%	0.006107	+49.61%	0.4255	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003605	-6.71%	0.00645	+66.95%	0.5560	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.002987	-7.80%	0.00544	+67.91%	0.6269	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.002968	-8.44%	0.005863	+80.84%	0.6781	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002704	-9.88%	0.005483	+82.76%	0.6963	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.002162	-11.47%	0.005	+104.73%	0.8130	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006432	-2.91%	0.005597	-15.51%	0.1661	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007021	-2.33%	0.004082	-43.22%	0.5797	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006791	-2.05%	0.003864	-44.27%	0.6428	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007719	-2.45%	0.00324	-59.06%	0.9300	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008587	-2.25%	0.003242	-63.10%	1.0409	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008774	-2.42%	0.003	-66.64%	1.1245	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.00894	-2.50%	0.002442	-73.37%	1.3388	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009082	-2.48%	0.006625	-28.87%	0.3449	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010174	-2.66%	0.007189	-31.22%	0.3304	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.