XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s6

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +1d

assessed

119

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

51.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0620

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0091

actual -0.0077

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004328	-0.78%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004308	-0.75%	0.004362	+0.50%	0.0114	✗	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004334	-0.73%	0.00434	-0.57%	0.0061	✓	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004267	-0.75%	0.004365	+1.53%	0.0220	✗	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004482	-0.86%	0.0043	-4.90%	0.0393	✓	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004501	-0.95%	0.004521	-0.51%	0.0040	✓	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004532	-1.07%	0.004544	-0.80%	0.0003	✓	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004296	-1.01%	0.004581	+5.57%	0.0665	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004124	-1.00%	0.004339	+4.17%	0.0456	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.00408	-0.97%	0.004166	+1.10%	0.0254	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003973	-0.98%	0.00412	+2.69%	0.0350	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.004003	-1.01%	0.004012	-0.77%	0.0025	✓	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.004009	-1.04%	0.004044	-0.18%	0.0087	✓	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003881	-0.95%	0.004051	+3.39%	0.0434	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004101	-1.01%	0.003918	-5.42%	0.0477	✓	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004087	-0.80%	0.004142	+0.54%	0.0133	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004048	-0.73%	0.00412	+1.04%	0.0176	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004404	-0.65%	0.004078	-8.01%	0.0781	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003787	-0.78%	0.004432	+16.13%	0.1615	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004948	-0.81%	0.003817	-23.48%	0.2589	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004978	-0.77%	0.004988	-0.58%	0.0013	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004964	-0.98%	0.005017	+0.08%	0.0189	✗	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004236	-0.73%	0.005013	+17.46%	0.1678	✗	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004507	-0.76%	0.004268	-6.02%	0.0534	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004427	-0.61%	0.004541	+1.95%	0.0206	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004589	-0.59%	0.004455	-3.51%	0.0296	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.0047	-0.58%	0.004617	-2.36%	0.0164	✓	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.005079	-0.73%	0.004728	-7.58%	0.0730	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004415	-0.46%	0.005116	+15.33%	0.1473	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004339	-0.33%	0.004436	+1.88%	0.0150	✗	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004324	-0.29%	0.004354	+0.40%	0.0057	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004347	-0.57%	0.004336	-0.82%	0.0207	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004538	-0.55%	0.004372	-4.19%	0.0377	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004764	-0.62%	0.004563	-4.81%	0.0416	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005348	-1.85%	0.004794	-12.02%	0.0990	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004335	-0.21%	0.005449	+25.44%	0.2292	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003844	+0.18%	0.004344	+13.22%	0.1255	✓	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.00388	+0.14%	0.003837	-0.96%	0.0213	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003659	+0.37%	0.003874	+6.28%	0.0615	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003077	+0.69%	0.003645	+19.30%	0.1684	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003892	+0.19%	0.003056	-21.33%	0.2417	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003977	+0.23%	0.003884	-2.12%	0.0220	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004018	+0.22%	0.003968	-1.03%	0.0170	✗	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004895	-0.13%	0.00401	-18.19%	0.2000	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004828	-0.15%	0.004901	+1.38%	0.0134	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004713	-0.11%	0.004835	+2.48%	0.0225	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004529	-0.01%	0.004718	+4.16%	0.0422	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004743	-0.01%	0.004529	-4.52%	0.0457	✓	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005064	-0.04%	0.004744	-6.37%	0.0702	✓	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005009	-0.14%	0.005066	+1.01%	0.0267	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004989	-0.08%	0.005016	+0.46%	0.0050	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004665	-0.08%	0.004993	+6.93%	0.0640	✗	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005036	-0.20%	0.004669	-7.47%	0.0729	✓	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005093	-0.23%	0.005046	-1.14%	0.0109	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005185	-0.27%	0.005104	-1.82%	0.0144	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005376	-0.16%	0.005199	-3.45%	0.0418	✓	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005402	-0.29%	0.005385	-0.60%	0.0012	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005214	-0.33%	0.005417	+3.57%	0.0402	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005259	-0.33%	0.005231	-0.86%	0.0070	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005153	-0.46%	0.005276	+1.93%	0.0285	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005058	-0.57%	0.005177	+1.76%	0.0259	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.0049	-0.53%	0.005087	+3.26%	0.0328	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005725	-0.95%	0.004926	-14.77%	0.1586	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005683	-1.14%	0.00578	+0.54%	0.0128	✗	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005756	-1.09%	0.005749	-1.22%	0.0075	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005824	-1.12%	0.00582	-1.20%	0.0011	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005925	-1.08%	0.00589	-1.66%	0.0084	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.00593	-1.05%	0.00599	-0.04%	0.0104	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005857	-1.00%	0.005993	+1.29%	0.0228	✗	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005869	-1.01%	0.005916	-0.21%	0.0088	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.006007	-1.01%	0.005929	-2.30%	0.0132	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006406	-1.05%	0.006068	-6.27%	0.0540	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.00672	-1.14%	0.006474	-4.76%	0.0368	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006697	-1.25%	0.006798	+0.23%	0.0164	✗	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006376	-1.22%	0.006782	+5.07%	0.0619	✗	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006853	-1.29%	0.006455	-7.02%	0.0598	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006986	-1.28%	0.006942	-1.89%	0.0074	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.007209	-1.52%	0.007076	-3.33%	0.0180	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006476	-1.40%	0.00732	+11.45%	0.1223	✗	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006294	-1.40%	0.006568	+2.91%	0.0429	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005986	-1.37%	0.006383	+5.16%	0.0641	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005879	-1.30%	0.00607	+1.90%	0.0326	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.00593	-1.31%	0.005956	-0.88%	0.0043	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005897	-1.37%	0.006009	+0.50%	0.0189	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005953	-1.27%	0.005979	-0.82%	0.0047	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005783	-1.20%	0.006029	+3.00%	0.0416	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.00605	-1.16%	0.005854	-4.37%	0.0330	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.00626	-1.21%	0.006121	-3.39%	0.0235	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006239	-1.19%	0.006336	+0.36%	0.0169	✗	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.006202	-1.21%	0.006314	+0.58%	0.0182	✗	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.006134	-1.24%	0.006277	+1.07%	0.0223	✗	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.006054	-1.27%	0.006211	+1.29%	0.0256	✗	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.00626	-1.53%	0.006132	-3.54%	0.0207	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.006139	-1.78%	0.006357	+1.71%	0.0367	✗	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005712	-1.54%	0.00625	+7.74%	0.0916	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005711	-1.55%	0.005801	+0.01%	0.0154	✓	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005706	-1.59%	0.005801	+0.04%	0.0197	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005938	-1.71%	0.005798	-4.02%	0.0233	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005996	-1.82%	0.006041	-1.07%	0.0045	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.00629	-2.49%	0.006107	-5.32%	0.0253	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005335	-1.93%	0.00645	+18.56%	0.1469	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005732	-2.23%	0.00544	-7.20%	0.0288	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005352	-2.39%	0.005863	+6.93%	0.0916	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004883	-2.33%	0.005483	+9.66%	0.1214	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.00538	-3.88%	0.005	-10.67%	0.0882	✓	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.004011	-1.73%	0.005597	+37.13%	0.3183	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003792	-1.86%	0.004082	+5.64%	0.0910	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003182	-1.78%	0.003864	+19.25%	0.2047	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003181	-1.87%	0.00324	-0.06%	0.0118	✓	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.002936	-2.13%	0.003242	+8.06%	0.0912	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.00239	-2.14%	0.003	+22.84%	0.2183	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006584	-0.62%	0.002442	-63.13%	1.0084	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007163	-0.37%	0.006625	-7.85%	0.1032	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006918	-0.22%	0.007189	+3.69%	0.0142	✗	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007882	-0.39%	0.006933	-12.39%	0.1007	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008753	-0.37%	0.007913	-9.92%	0.1124	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008955	-0.41%	0.008785	-2.31%	0.0115	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.009131	-0.42%	0.008992	-1.93%	0.0142	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009277	-0.39%	0.009169	-1.55%	0.0166	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.0104	-0.50%	0.009313	-10.90%	0.0892	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.