UMX

UMX · · gru_s6

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

83.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0694

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0254

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.040673	-2.80%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.038615	-1.84%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042199	-1.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.053857	-2.34%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054355	-1.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.054859	-1.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.057948	-1.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.057907	-1.93%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3323	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058249	-1.84%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.4012	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058275	-1.93%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3053	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059226	-1.98%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0717	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059045	-1.93%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0565	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059439	-2.03%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0558	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.059751	-1.96%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0066	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059112	-2.34%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0029	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.059981	-2.98%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0034	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.060321	-2.26%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0034	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.059669	-3.28%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0322	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.059794	-3.11%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0212	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.059402	-3.25%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0301	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.059761	-3.14%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0294	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.059728	-2.85%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0296	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.059523	-3.04%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0393	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.05943	-2.91%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0282	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.05896	-2.73%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0336	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.059212	-2.52%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0304	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.059488	-2.57%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0298	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.05935	-2.57%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0366	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.059688	-2.42%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0270	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.059643	-2.50%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0336	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.059414	-2.17%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0463	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.059875	-2.12%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0331	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.059552	-3.06%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0022	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.058672	-2.96%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0181	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.059426	-3.17%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0026	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.060101	-1.72%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0338	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.060924	-1.75%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0490	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.060222	-1.05%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0579	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.059228	-2.13%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0350	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.05991	-1.42%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0097	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.061375	-1.95%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0475	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.06353	-2.33%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0648	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.063698	-2.09%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0393	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.063343	-2.34%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0002	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.064795	-2.56%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0337	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.066255	-2.66%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0810	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.068101	-2.61%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0740	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.069845	-2.82%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0769	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.070025	-2.84%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0423	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.071556	-2.15%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0352	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.071633	-3.51%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1119	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.071912	-3.32%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.0918	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.072879	-2.76%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0751	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.073543	-2.96%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0842	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.073275	-2.47%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0395	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.074491	-2.41%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0564	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.075777	-1.54%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0478	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.080515	-2.01%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0592	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.081757	-2.15%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0801	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.086594	-2.39%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1391	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.084427	-2.64%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1071	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.084204	-2.89%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1292	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.081376	-2.50%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0578	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.079841	-3.53%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1316	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.080927	-4.63%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1161	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.082407	-2.99%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1802	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.082455	-2.59%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1298	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.083168	-1.53%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1709	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.