UMX

UMX · · gru_s6

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +1d

assessed

66

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

63.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0230

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0033

actual -0.0127

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.046598	-0.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042953	+0.09%	0.0466	+8.59%	0.0821	✓	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054898	-0.46%	0.042915	-22.18%	0.2501	✓	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055301	-0.19%	0.05515	-0.46%	0.0021	✓	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055738	-0.20%	0.055405	-0.80%	0.0082	✓	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.05894	-0.26%	0.05585	-5.49%	0.0534	✓	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058923	-0.21%	0.059095	+0.08%	0.0052	✗	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.05922	-0.20%	0.059045	-0.50%	0.0050	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059325	-0.16%	0.05934	-0.13%	0.0062	✗	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.060312	-0.18%	0.05942	-1.66%	0.0201	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.060137	-0.11%	0.06042	+0.36%	0.0129	✗	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060591	-0.13%	0.060205	-0.77%	0.0096	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060837	-0.18%	0.06067	-0.45%	0.0043	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.060334	-0.32%	0.060945	+0.69%	0.0065	✗	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061552	-0.44%	0.06053	-2.09%	0.0099	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061535	-0.29%	0.061825	+0.18%	0.0155	✗	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061276	-0.67%	0.061715	+0.04%	0.0081	✗	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061315	-0.64%	0.06169	-0.03%	0.0099	✗	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060954	-0.72%	0.06171	+0.51%	0.0038	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.061248	-0.73%	0.061395	-0.49%	0.0012	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.061121	-0.58%	0.0617	+0.36%	0.0112	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.06096	-0.70%	0.06148	+0.15%	0.0021	✓	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060877	-0.54%	0.06139	+0.29%	0.0088	✗	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.060304	-0.51%	0.06121	+0.98%	0.0140	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060469	-0.45%	0.060615	-0.21%	0.0079	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.0608	-0.43%	0.06074	-0.52%	0.0012	✓	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060672	-0.40%	0.06106	+0.24%	0.0046	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.060949	-0.36%	0.060915	-0.42%	0.0011	✓	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060959	-0.34%	0.06117	+0.00%	0.0034	✓	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060609	-0.21%	0.06117	+0.72%	0.0209	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.061075	-0.15%	0.060735	-0.71%	0.0030	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.061194	-0.39%	0.06117	-0.43%	0.0360	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.06027	-0.31%	0.061435	+1.61%	0.0197	✗	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.061172	-0.32%	0.06046	-1.48%	0.0142	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.060914	-0.39%	0.06137	+0.36%	0.0222	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.061762	-0.40%	0.06115	-1.39%	0.0113	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.060684	-0.29%	0.06201	+1.89%	0.0179	✗	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.060376	-0.24%	0.06086	+0.56%	0.0301	✗	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.060637	-0.23%	0.06052	-0.42%	0.0131	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.062427	-0.27%	0.060775	-2.91%	0.0229	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064821	-0.34%	0.062595	-3.77%	0.0354	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.064827	-0.36%	0.065045	-0.02%	0.0023	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064677	-0.28%	0.06506	+0.31%	0.0231	✗	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.066286	-0.31%	0.06486	-2.46%	0.0201	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067839	-0.33%	0.066495	-2.31%	0.0133	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.06971	-0.31%	0.068065	-2.67%	0.0101	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.07165	-0.31%	0.06993	-2.71%	0.0306	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071852	-0.30%	0.071875	-0.27%	0.0016	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.073021	-0.15%	0.07207	-1.45%	0.0066	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.074054	-0.25%	0.07313	-1.50%	0.0625	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.074243	-0.18%	0.07424	-0.19%	0.0011	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074855	-0.13%	0.07438	-0.76%	0.0086	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075663	-0.17%	0.07495	-1.11%	0.0210	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.075038	-0.12%	0.07579	+0.88%	0.0173	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.07623	-0.13%	0.07513	-1.57%	0.0196	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.076946	-0.02%	0.07633	-0.82%	0.0228	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.082111	-0.07%	0.07696	-6.34%	0.0805	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.083481	-0.08%	0.08217	-1.65%	0.0222	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.088626	-0.09%	0.08355	-5.82%	0.0532	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.086611	-0.13%	0.08871	+2.29%	0.0080	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.086579	-0.15%	0.08672	+0.01%	0.0071	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.083401	-0.07%	0.08671	+3.89%	0.0553	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.082462	-0.36%	0.08346	+0.85%	0.0582	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.084323	-0.63%	0.08276	-2.47%	0.0709	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.084204	-0.88%	0.08486	-0.11%	0.0612	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.083905	-0.88%	0.08495	+0.35%	0.0092	✗	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.083741	-0.85%	0.08465	+0.22%	0.0150	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.