UMX

UMX · · gru_s6

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +30d

assessed

37

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

81.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2259

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0333

actual -0.2589

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.045553	-2.25%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042197	-1.67%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.053161	-3.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.0535	-3.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.053728	-3.80%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.056696	-4.06%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.05694	-3.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.057281	-3.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.057924	-2.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.058613	-2.99%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059196	-1.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059508	-1.92%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.059457	-2.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.057822	-4.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.058613	-5.20%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.059376	-3.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.057382	-6.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.057832	-6.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.057165	-6.89%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.057601	-6.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.057864	-5.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.057355	-6.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.057418	-6.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.057041	-5.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.057775	-4.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.058145	-4.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.058111	-4.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.058716	-4.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.058868	-3.76%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.059446	-2.12%	–	pending	–	–	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060306	-1.41%	0.0466	-23.82%	0.2318	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.058318	-5.07%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.3186	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.057726	-4.52%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0498	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.058551	-4.59%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0631	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.056745	-7.20%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0487	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.057551	-7.19%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0086	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.05658	-7.03%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0007	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.057406	-5.15%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0052	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.057282	-5.75%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0131	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.059241	-5.36%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0168	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.061501	-5.45%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0737	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.061395	-5.63%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0632	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.062205	-4.09%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0608	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.063902	-3.90%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0858	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.065807	-3.32%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.1045	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.068099	-2.62%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.1539	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.070113	-2.45%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.1995	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.070423	-2.28%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.2144	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072809	-0.44%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.2124	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.072449	-2.41%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.2496	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.073085	-1.74%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.2648	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.07444	-0.68%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.2544	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.074953	-1.10%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.2766	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074813	-0.42%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.2751	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.076008	-0.42%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.3059	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.078111	+1.50%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.2966	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.082927	+0.92%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.3706	✗	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.084212	+0.79%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.3916	✗	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.089802	+1.23%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.4500	✗	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.087189	+0.54%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.4650	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.086884	+0.20%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.4676	✗	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.084494	+1.24%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.3542	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.080361	-2.90%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.3913	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.079834	-5.92%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.4175	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.077491	-8.78%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.4027	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.077171	-8.83%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.3851	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.076675	-9.22%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.4157	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.