SWM
Swarm · · gru_s6
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +7d
assessed
49
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
55.1%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2711
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0829
actual +0.0251
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.087956 | -3.28% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.087798 | -3.33% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.088936 | -2.74% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.089387 | -2.78% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.091164 | -2.60% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.090957 | -2.83% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.091674 | -3.54% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.085859 | -3.19% | 0.090935 | +2.53% | 0.0966 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.087429 | -2.72% | 0.090825 | +1.06% | 0.0843 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.098537 | -4.90% | 0.091445 | -11.74% | 0.0780 | ✓ | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.097152 | -3.79% | 0.09194 | -8.95% | 0.0531 | ✓ | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.095185 | -5.03% | 0.093595 | -6.62% | 0.0521 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.095378 | -4.68% | 0.09361 | -6.45% | 0.0514 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.094511 | -4.43% | 0.09504 | -3.89% | 0.0168 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.095131 | -3.92% | 0.08869 | -10.43% | 0.0608 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.091149 | -5.41% | 0.089875 | -6.73% | 0.0505 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.089956 | -8.55% | 0.10361 | +5.33% | 0.0883 | ✓ | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.078152 | -7.47% | 0.100975 | +19.55% | 0.1708 | ✗ | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.084962 | -8.50% | 0.10023 | +7.94% | 0.1040 | ✗ | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.084397 | -7.05% | 0.100065 | +10.21% | 0.1289 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.087019 | -7.11% | 0.09889 | +5.56% | 0.0834 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.088092 | -7.41% | 0.099015 | +4.07% | 0.0450 | ✓ | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.100524 | -7.08% | 0.096365 | -10.92% | 0.0485 | ✓ | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.116533 | -8.05% | 0.098365 | -22.39% | 0.1270 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.113727 | -7.94% | 0.084465 | -31.63% | 0.2463 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.142529 | -9.90% | 0.092855 | -41.30% | 0.3785 | ✓ | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.116671 | -8.78% | 0.090795 | -29.01% | 0.2429 | ✓ | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.097241 | -7.76% | 0.09368 | -11.14% | 0.0274 | ✓ | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.095929 | -7.77% | 0.095145 | -8.52% | 0.0029 | ✓ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.095654 | -7.92% | 0.10818 | +4.14% | 0.1033 | ✗ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.087615 | -7.59% | 0.12674 | +33.67% | 0.3106 | ✗ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.096109 | -6.54% | 0.123535 | +20.12% | 0.1779 | ✗ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.105777 | -6.49% | 0.15819 | +39.84% | 0.4876 | ✗ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.111074 | -6.59% | 0.127905 | +7.56% | 0.2236 | ✗ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.111612 | -6.68% | 0.10542 | -11.86% | 0.0267 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.119385 | -7.68% | 0.10401 | -19.57% | 0.2379 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.12773 | -9.05% | 0.10388 | -26.03% | 0.3094 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.118886 | -8.42% | 0.094815 | -26.96% | 0.3576 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.141647 | -9.04% | 0.10284 | -33.96% | 0.4225 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.141101 | -9.91% | 0.11312 | -27.77% | 0.2762 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.164316 | -11.44% | 0.11891 | -35.91% | 0.3735 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.169751 | -13.44% | 0.1196 | -39.01% | 0.3966 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.156514 | -15.81% | 0.12931 | -30.44% | 0.1885 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.122446 | -10.43% | 0.14044 | +2.74% | 0.1648 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.120987 | -11.80% | 0.129815 | -5.36% | 0.1076 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.104522 | -11.03% | 0.15573 | +32.55% | 0.4104 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.09177 | -10.83% | 0.156615 | +52.18% | 0.5796 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.071292 | -7.39% | 0.18555 | +141.04% | 0.9892 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.070126 | -7.29% | 0.196105 | +159.26% | 1.0598 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.067874 | -7.39% | 0.18591 | +153.66% | 1.0675 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.066032 | -5.83% | 0.1367 | +94.95% | 0.7151 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.065379 | -6.31% | 0.13717 | +96.57% | 0.7275 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.064642 | -6.94% | 0.117485 | +69.14% | 0.5907 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.065281 | -8.62% | 0.102915 | +44.06% | 0.4214 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.064216 | -10.39% | 0.07698 | +7.42% | 0.1611 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.063055 | -15.51% | 0.07564 | +1.35% | 0.1587 | ✓ | 1.00 |