SWM

Swarm · · gru_s6

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

45.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0763

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0208

actual +0.0044

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.089983	-1.05%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.090059	-0.84%	0.090935	+0.12%	0.0133	✗	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.090789	-0.72%	0.090825	-0.68%	0.0207	✗	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091289	-0.71%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0227	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.092927	-0.71%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0139	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.092903	-0.76%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0195	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094126	-0.96%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0078	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088046	-0.73%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0646	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089357	-0.58%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0031	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102236	-1.33%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1604	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.0999	-1.06%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0649	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.098854	-1.37%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0197	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.098683	-1.38%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0317	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.097548	-1.36%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0332	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.097671	-1.36%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0307	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.094783	-1.64%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0100	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.095939	-2.47%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0447	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.083045	-1.68%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1649	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.090991	-2.01%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.0906	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.089323	-1.62%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0778	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.092132	-1.65%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0093	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.093574	-1.65%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0066	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.106383	-1.66%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0832	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.12412	-2.07%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1393	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.121127	-1.95%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0494	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.15335	-3.06%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2412	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.124592	-2.59%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2399	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.103341	-1.97%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2210	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.10197	-1.96%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0263	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.101799	-2.00%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0217	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.093245	-1.66%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0666	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.101386	-1.41%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0761	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.11147	-1.46%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0577	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.117135	-1.49%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0368	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.117856	-1.46%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0184	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.127034	-1.76%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1179	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.137315	-2.23%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0627	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.127476	-1.80%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0895	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.15252	-2.06%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1275	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.153204	-2.18%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0014	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.18049	-2.73%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1359	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.189239	-3.50%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0204	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.176729	-4.94%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0953	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.132836	-2.83%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3587	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.132257	-3.58%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0351	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.113481	-3.41%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1978	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.099118	-3.69%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1856	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.075244	-2.26%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.3068	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.073958	-2.22%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0381	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.071638	-2.25%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0741	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.068668	-2.07%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0152	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.068216	-2.24%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0287	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.067798	-2.39%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0437	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.06923	-3.09%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0082	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.06904	-3.66%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0415	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.069722	-6.58%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0224	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.