SWM
Swarm · · gru_s6
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +30d
assessed
26
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
65.4%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2936
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.2032
actual -0.1438
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.084942 | -6.59% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.084345 | -7.13% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.085543 | -6.45% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.085563 | -6.94% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.087558 | -6.45% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.086908 | -7.16% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.087079 | -8.38% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.081234 | -8.41% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.082522 | -8.18% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.0936 | -9.66% | – | pending | – | – | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.092169 | -8.72% | – | pending | – | – | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.090821 | -9.39% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.090969 | -9.09% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.090116 | -8.87% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.090575 | -8.52% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.087147 | -9.57% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.085524 | -13.05% | – | pending | – | – | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.0739 | -12.51% | – | pending | – | – | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.080031 | -13.81% | – | pending | – | – | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.079747 | -12.17% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.082069 | -12.39% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.082696 | -13.08% | – | pending | – | – | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.094461 | -12.68% | – | pending | – | – | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.108673 | -14.26% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.10592 | -14.26% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.130996 | -17.19% | – | pending | – | – | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.109431 | -14.44% | – | pending | – | – | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.091732 | -12.98% | – | pending | – | – | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.090391 | -13.09% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.089914 | -13.44% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.081775 | -13.75% | 0.090935 | -4.09% | 0.0610 | ✓ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.089937 | -12.55% | 0.090825 | -11.68% | 0.0499 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.098799 | -12.66% | 0.091445 | -19.16% | 0.0311 | ✓ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.103269 | -13.15% | 0.09194 | -22.68% | 0.1003 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.103118 | -13.78% | 0.093595 | -21.74% | 0.0671 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.108917 | -15.77% | 0.09361 | -27.61% | 0.2153 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.114968 | -18.14% | 0.09504 | -32.33% | 0.2583 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.106354 | -18.07% | 0.08869 | -31.68% | 0.2646 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.125375 | -19.49% | 0.089875 | -42.29% | 0.3754 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.122932 | -21.51% | 0.10361 | -33.84% | 0.2499 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.14047 | -24.30% | 0.100975 | -45.58% | 0.3865 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.142248 | -27.46% | 0.10023 | -48.89% | 0.4306 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.128754 | -30.74% | 0.100065 | -46.18% | 0.3321 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.108474 | -20.65% | 0.09889 | -27.66% | 0.1455 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.106772 | -22.16% | 0.099015 | -27.82% | 0.1159 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.093586 | -20.34% | 0.096365 | -17.98% | 0.0223 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.08363 | -18.74% | 0.098365 | -4.42% | 0.0996 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.066347 | -13.81% | 0.084465 | +9.72% | 0.1699 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.06515 | -13.87% | 0.092855 | +22.76% | 0.2721 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.062972 | -14.08% | 0.090795 | +23.88% | 0.3240 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.06113 | -12.82% | 0.09368 | +33.60% | 0.3379 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.0601 | -13.87% | 0.095145 | +36.35% | 0.3675 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.059135 | -14.86% | 0.10818 | +55.74% | 0.5424 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.058889 | -17.57% | 0.12674 | +77.41% | 0.6924 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.056815 | -20.72% | 0.123535 | +72.39% | 0.7121 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.053051 | -28.92% | 0.15819 | +111.97% | 1.0109 | ✗ | 1.00 |