NIULAI

? · · gru_s6

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +1d

assessed

54

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

55.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0924

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0122

actual +0.0006

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.06254	0.062376	-0.26%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.062372	-0.21%	0.06254	+0.06%	0.0072	✗	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.058035	+0.15%	0.0625	+7.85%	0.0537	✓	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.058862	+0.17%	0.05795	-1.39%	0.0125	✗	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.059594	+0.23%	0.058765	-1.16%	0.0258	✗	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.065021	+0.01%	0.059455	-8.55%	0.0873	✗	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.067336	-0.06%	0.065015	-3.51%	0.0236	✓	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.069577	-0.08%	0.06738	-3.23%	0.0424	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.074338	-0.39%	0.06963	-6.70%	0.0379	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.071999	-0.08%	0.07463	+3.57%	0.0116	✗	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.078815	-0.57%	0.07206	-9.10%	0.0568	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.079615	-0.57%	0.07927	-1.01%	0.0173	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.074113	-0.10%	0.080075	+7.93%	0.0712	✗	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.073175	+0.10%	0.07419	+1.49%	0.0008	✓	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.071737	+0.07%	0.0731	+1.97%	0.0465	✓	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.078591	-0.61%	0.071685	-9.35%	0.0556	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.076369	-0.56%	0.079075	+2.96%	0.0381	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.081634	-0.87%	0.0768	-6.74%	0.0494	✓	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.079561	-0.69%	0.08235	+2.80%	0.0070	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.086759	-0.90%	0.08011	-8.50%	0.0834	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.098179	-1.10%	0.08755	-11.81%	0.1094	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.103617	-1.15%	0.09927	-5.30%	0.0631	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.103878	-1.19%	0.104825	-0.29%	0.0104	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.114211	-1.41%	0.10513	-9.25%	0.0857	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.102634	-1.34%	0.115845	+11.36%	0.1376	✗	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.104337	-1.42%	0.10403	-1.71%	0.0037	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.102778	-1.46%	0.10584	+1.47%	0.0241	✗	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.099159	-1.47%	0.104305	+3.64%	0.0554	✗	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.105769	-1.53%	0.10064	-6.30%	0.0498	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.110492	-1.63%	0.10741	-4.38%	0.0003	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.105969	-1.67%	0.112325	+4.23%	0.0643	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.099531	-1.54%	0.10777	+6.61%	0.0155	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.106205	-1.58%	0.10109	-6.32%	0.0481	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.117453	-1.81%	0.107915	-9.79%	0.0910	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.104572	-1.60%	0.11962	+12.56%	0.0769	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.09907	-1.47%	0.10627	+5.69%	0.0675	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.117599	-1.76%	0.10055	-16.01%	0.1640	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.119921	-1.91%	0.11971	-2.08%	0.0319	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.115004	-1.78%	0.12225	+4.41%	0.0434	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.131699	-2.39%	0.11709	-13.22%	0.1116	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.122564	-2.54%	0.134925	+7.28%	0.0954	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.117016	-3.59%	0.125765	+3.61%	0.0634	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.077788	-1.01%	0.12138	+54.46%	0.4675	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.100017	-2.06%	0.078585	-23.05%	0.2391	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.080743	-1.11%	0.102125	+25.08%	0.2431	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.089862	-1.27%	0.08165	-10.29%	0.0802	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.116854	-3.07%	0.09102	-24.50%	0.2562	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.083248	-1.04%	0.12056	+43.32%	0.3684	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.094727	-1.64%	0.08412	-12.66%	0.0990	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.077025	-1.02%	0.09631	+23.76%	0.1735	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.082298	-1.27%	0.07782	-6.65%	0.0548	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.099926	-2.86%	0.08336	-18.97%	0.1663	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.096167	-5.24%	0.10287	+1.37%	0.0559	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.054681	-0.47%	0.10148	+84.71%	0.6256	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.055664	-0.71%	0.05494	-2.00%	0.0181	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.