MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s6

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 135

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 45 predictions shown

direction hit

52.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1490

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0064

actual -0.0513

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001936	0.001908	-1.46%	–	pending	–	–	0.82
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001781	-1.03%	0.001936	+7.59%	0.0859	✗	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001917	-1.28%	0.0018	-7.34%	0.0750	✓	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001773	-0.75%	0.001942	+8.73%	0.0932	✗	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.002067	-1.31%	0.001786	-14.71%	0.1531	✓	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002319	-1.81%	0.002094	-11.33%	0.1006	✓	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002373	-2.08%	0.002361	-2.54%	0.0025	✓	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002218	-1.56%	0.002423	+7.55%	0.0823	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.002025	-0.90%	0.002253	+10.28%	0.1275	✗	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002131	-1.10%	0.002043	-5.18%	0.0606	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001826	-0.18%	0.002155	+17.76%	0.2003	✗	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001828	-0.04%	0.001829	+0.03%	0.0129	✓	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001849	+0.04%	0.001829	-1.05%	0.0175	✗	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002098	-0.32%	0.001849	-12.19%	0.1425	✓	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002388	-0.98%	0.002105	-12.73%	0.0985	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.002357	-0.96%	0.002412	+1.34%	0.0675	✗	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002816	-2.13%	0.00238	-17.27%	0.1642	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.002302	-1.05%	0.002877	+23.66%	0.2392	✗	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001715	-0.15%	0.002327	+35.42%	0.2755	✗	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001679	-0.31%	0.001718	+1.99%	0.0188	✗	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001679	-0.56%	0.001685	-0.21%	0.0094	✗	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002403	+0.56%	0.001688	-29.37%	0.3799	✗	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003111	+0.55%	0.00239	-22.77%	0.2621	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003644	+0.23%	0.003095	-14.88%	0.1670	✗	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003676	+0.15%	0.003635	-0.94%	0.0010	✓	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.004535	-0.63%	0.00367	-19.59%	0.2123	✓	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.004892	-1.01%	0.004564	-7.64%	0.0732	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004475	-0.45%	0.004941	+9.93%	0.1027	✗	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004565	-0.48%	0.004495	-2.01%	0.0155	✓	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.0048	-0.87%	0.004587	-5.27%	0.0241	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.005269	-1.47%	0.004842	-9.46%	0.0800	✓	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.004457	-0.17%	0.005348	+19.78%	0.1174	✗	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004263	-0.15%	0.004465	+4.59%	0.0473	✗	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005582	-0.37%	0.004269	-23.81%	0.2726	✓	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005507	-0.03%	0.005603	+1.71%	0.0404	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004338	-0.13%	0.005509	+26.82%	0.2362	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.005928	+0.10%	0.004344	-26.65%	0.3183	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.008473	-0.87%	0.005922	-30.71%	0.3245	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.006264	-0.36%	0.008547	+35.96%	0.2930	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.008335	-0.83%	0.006287	-25.20%	0.2760	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006305	-0.89%	0.008404	+32.11%	0.2867	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008383	-0.83%	0.006361	-24.74%	0.2847	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.010408	-0.73%	0.008453	-19.38%	0.1855	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.017765	-0.50%	0.010485	-41.28%	0.5252	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.017927	-0.43%	0.017855	-0.83%	0.0042	✓	1.00