BTW
Bitway · Ethereum · gru_s6
- token id
- #40
- symbol
- BTW
- variant
- –
- chain
- Ethereum
- address
- 0x3a63de3572c69a1307ff08394f3ee7702c16d25d
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-24
- predictions
- 150
Track record at +1d
assessed
49
of 50 predictions shown
direction hit
40.8%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1146
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0170
actual +0.0275
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 2.1044 | 2.0692 | -1.67% | – | pending | – | – | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 2.0432 | 2.0073 | -1.76% | 2.1044 | +3.00% | 0.0429 | ✗ | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 1.9664 | 1.9353 | -1.58% | 2.0432 | +3.91% | 0.0744 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 2.4152 | 2.362 | -2.20% | 1.9664 | -18.58% | 0.1865 | ✓ | -1.54 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 2.4383 | 2.3607 | -3.18% | 2.4152 | -0.95% | 0.0345 | ✗ | -1.53 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 1.9279 | 1.8839 | -2.28% | 2.4383 | +26.48% | 0.2558 | ✗ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 1.8166 | 1.7885 | -1.55% | 1.9279 | +6.12% | 0.0636 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 2.3803 | 2.3004 | -3.36% | 1.8166 | -23.68% | 0.2266 | ✓ | -1.40 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 2.0884 | 2.0112 | -3.69% | 2.3803 | +13.98% | 0.1438 | ✗ | -1.32 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 1.7495 | 1.7062 | -2.48% | 2.0884 | +19.36% | 0.2264 | ✗ | -1.47 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 1.6258 | 1.5882 | -2.31% | 1.7495 | +7.61% | 0.0627 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 1.5842 | 1.5537 | -1.93% | 1.6258 | +2.62% | 0.0588 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 1.5753 | 1.5405 | -2.20% | 1.5842 | +0.57% | 0.0344 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 1.3928 | 1.3715 | -1.53% | 1.5753 | +13.10% | 0.1542 | ✗ | -1.52 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 1.2975 | 1.2763 | -1.64% | 1.3928 | +7.34% | 0.0586 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 1.2135 | 1.1937 | -1.63% | 1.2975 | +6.93% | 0.0432 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 1.2336 | 1.2104 | -1.88% | 1.2135 | -1.63% | 0.0012 | ✓ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 1.2458 | 1.2167 | -2.33% | 1.2336 | -0.98% | 0.0002 | ✓ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 1.0377 | 1.0224 | -1.48% | 1.2458 | +20.05% | 0.2342 | ✗ | -1.77 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 1.3815 | 1.3541 | -1.98% | 1.0377 | -24.89% | 0.2612 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 1.4183 | 1.387 | -2.20% | 1.3815 | -2.59% | 0.0112 | ✓ | -1.78 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 1.329 | 1.3008 | -2.12% | 1.4183 | +6.72% | 0.1146 | ✗ | -1.83 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 1.3887 | 1.3504 | -2.76% | 1.329 | -4.31% | 0.0179 | ✓ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 1.1192 | 1.0954 | -2.13% | 1.3887 | +24.08% | 0.2413 | ✗ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 1.2207 | 1.1913 | -2.41% | 1.1192 | -8.31% | 0.0861 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 1.0015 | 0.985161 | -1.64% | 1.2207 | +21.88% | 0.2154 | ✗ | -1.96 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 1.3154 | 1.2584 | -4.33% | 1.0015 | -23.86% | 0.2209 | ✓ | -1.93 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.9544 | 0.935915 | -1.94% | 1.3154 | +37.82% | 0.3340 | ✗ | -1.82 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 1.0378 | 1.0051 | -3.15% | 0.9544 | -8.04% | 0.0516 | ✓ | -1.84 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.8978 | 0.879201 | -2.07% | 1.0378 | +15.59% | 0.1872 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.8007 | 0.783109 | -2.20% | 0.8978 | +12.13% | 0.1413 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.74705 | 0.728855 | -2.44% | 0.8007 | +7.18% | 0.0292 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.5903 | 0.586787 | -0.60% | 0.74705 | +26.55% | 0.2424 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.6302 | 0.626098 | -0.65% | 0.5903 | -6.33% | 0.0633 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.7199 | 0.711963 | -1.10% | 0.6302 | -12.46% | 0.1796 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.7502 | 0.739057 | -1.49% | 0.7199 | -4.04% | 0.0289 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.70505 | 0.694404 | -1.51% | 0.7502 | +6.40% | 0.0699 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.5826 | 0.579031 | -0.61% | 0.70505 | +21.02% | 0.2306 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.73445 | 0.711484 | -3.13% | 0.5826 | -20.68% | 0.2176 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.5503 | 0.547156 | -0.57% | 0.73445 | +33.46% | 0.3004 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.5088 | 0.50741 | -0.27% | 0.5503 | +8.16% | 0.0804 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.50005 | 0.497668 | -0.48% | 0.5088 | +1.75% | 0.0134 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.4511 | 0.451098 | -0.00% | 0.50005 | +10.85% | 0.1256 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.43775 | 0.437919 | +0.04% | 0.4511 | +3.05% | 0.0318 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.45105 | 0.450782 | -0.06% | 0.43775 | -2.95% | 0.0212 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.4474 | 0.447408 | +0.00% | 0.45105 | +0.82% | 0.0238 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.4522 | 0.451947 | -0.06% | 0.4474 | -1.06% | 0.0165 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.45655 | 0.45587 | -0.15% | 0.4522 | -0.95% | 0.0100 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.4544 | 0.452703 | -0.37% | 0.45655 | +0.47% | 0.0282 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.4896 | 0.485282 | -0.88% | 0.4544 | -7.19% | 0.1157 | ✓ | 1.00 |