ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s6

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 516

Track record at +7d

assessed

165

of 172 predictions shown

direction hit

58.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2355

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0419

actual -0.0908

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.001541	0.001458	-5.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.90
2026-10-21	oos	0.001549	0.001462	-5.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001221	-2.94%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001226	-2.92%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001127	-1.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001195	-2.80%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001227	-3.91%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.0012	-4.65%	0.001541	+22.50%	0.2077	✗	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.001081	-0.19%	0.001549	+42.96%	0.3096	✗	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001111	-2.91%	0.001259	+10.01%	0.1282	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.00112	-0.60%	0.001263	+12.12%	0.1185	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001292	-5.49%	0.001148	-15.95%	0.0851	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001282	-5.51%	0.001229	-9.40%	0.0108	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001196	-2.78%	0.001277	+3.78%	0.0867	✗	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001305	-3.66%	0.001258	-7.12%	0.0454	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001368	-5.33%	0.001084	-25.04%	0.1992	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001484	-5.12%	0.001144	-26.85%	0.2126	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001552	-4.85%	0.001126	-30.95%	0.2395	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001573	-3.96%	0.001367	-16.55%	0.0816	✓	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001612	-5.05%	0.001357	-20.08%	0.1330	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001645	-6.48%	0.00123	-30.07%	0.2487	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001756	-7.00%	0.001355	-28.26%	0.1932	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001735	-7.41%	0.001445	-22.87%	0.1766	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001679	-6.63%	0.001564	-13.01%	0.1091	✓	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001613	-5.25%	0.001631	-4.14%	0.0340	✓	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001804	-5.32%	0.001638	-14.04%	0.1391	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001873	-5.53%	0.001698	-14.37%	0.1050	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001907	-5.49%	0.001759	-12.83%	0.0896	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002122	-6.01%	0.001888	-16.39%	0.1267	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.00184	-4.86%	0.001874	-3.10%	0.0358	✓	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002049	-5.08%	0.001798	-16.70%	0.0768	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001664	-4.60%	0.001702	-2.41%	0.0901	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001489	-0.71%	0.001905	+27.00%	0.1740	✗	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001735	-2.89%	0.001983	+10.97%	0.0651	✗	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.00178	-2.79%	0.002018	+10.21%	0.0547	✗	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.00167	+4.07%	0.002258	+40.69%	0.1280	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001747	+3.27%	0.001934	+14.30%	0.0726	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001743	+3.98%	0.002158	+28.79%	0.0112	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001847	+2.48%	0.001744	-3.25%	0.2088	✗	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.00194	+1.93%	0.0015	-21.18%	0.3413	✗	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001865	+2.04%	0.001787	-2.24%	0.1212	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.00198	+1.20%	0.001831	-6.39%	0.1498	✗	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.002044	+0.18%	0.001605	-21.34%	0.2379	✗	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.002153	-1.50%	0.001692	-22.60%	0.1973	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002203	-1.61%	0.001676	-25.16%	0.2029	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002265	-1.86%	0.001803	-21.90%	0.2064	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002476	-2.74%	0.001903	-25.26%	0.1744	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002412	-2.93%	0.001828	-26.42%	0.2142	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002891	-4.43%	0.001956	-35.33%	0.3304	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.002968	-4.55%	0.002041	-34.38%	0.2586	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002254	-3.09%	0.002186	-6.02%	0.0538	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002306	-3.21%	0.00224	-5.98%	0.0540	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002557	-2.91%	0.002308	-12.38%	0.1143	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002824	-4.17%	0.002546	-13.61%	0.1612	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002491	-2.59%	0.002485	-2.84%	0.0380	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002085	-0.75%	0.003024	+43.96%	0.3314	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002309	-0.44%	0.003109	+34.09%	0.2770	✗	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002158	-0.38%	0.002326	+7.39%	0.1119	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001944	+0.35%	0.002382	+22.97%	0.2277	✓	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002259	-0.48%	0.002634	+16.04%	0.1614	✗	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002334	-1.10%	0.002947	+24.87%	0.2344	✗	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002587	-2.01%	0.002557	-3.14%	0.0359	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002536	-1.77%	0.002101	-18.63%	0.1782	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.00288	-5.63%	0.002319	-24.02%	0.4238	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002137	-6.65%	0.002166	-5.37%	0.2223	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001818	-6.76%	0.001937	-0.67%	0.2655	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001845	-7.08%	0.00227	+14.30%	0.1291	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.00177	-5.48%	0.00236	+26.00%	0.0604	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001831	-6.34%	0.00264	+35.04%	0.0363	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001935	-7.29%	0.002582	+23.72%	0.0711	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001799	-7.26%	0.003052	+57.32%	0.2954	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002012	-9.02%	0.002289	+3.53%	0.0211	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001835	-9.64%	0.00195	-3.99%	0.0305	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.0016	-8.61%	0.001986	+13.42%	0.2010	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001551	-9.64%	0.001873	+9.09%	0.2415	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001442	-9.24%	0.001955	+23.03%	0.3533	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.00146	-8.78%	0.002087	+30.36%	0.4022	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001894	-10.63%	0.00194	-8.45%	0.0454	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001775	-11.15%	0.002211	+10.66%	0.2489	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002048	-14.01%	0.002031	-14.74%	0.0037	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.00127	-6.35%	0.001751	+29.13%	0.3114	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001278	-5.61%	0.001717	+26.81%	0.2655	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001476	-6.15%	0.001589	+1.02%	0.0216	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001575	-6.03%	0.001601	-4.47%	0.0337	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001607	-5.27%	0.002119	+24.94%	0.2872	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.00165	-5.55%	0.001998	+14.37%	0.1749	✗	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001697	-5.87%	0.002382	+32.11%	0.3343	✗	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.00191	-7.99%	0.001356	-34.68%	0.3374	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001887	-7.22%	0.001354	-33.43%	0.2894	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.002077	-9.87%	0.001573	-31.73%	0.2397	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002044	-11.72%	0.001676	-27.60%	0.1707	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001418	-4.31%	0.001696	+14.44%	0.1871	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001318	-3.07%	0.001747	+28.46%	0.3379	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.001474	-4.99%	0.001803	+16.25%	0.2694	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001167	-2.62%	0.002076	+73.29%	0.6110	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.00119	-2.73%	0.002034	+66.31%	0.5215	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.0013	-3.62%	0.002304	+70.79%	0.5836	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001349	-5.29%	0.002315	+62.57%	0.5359	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001014	-2.61%	0.001482	+42.36%	0.3506	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001021	-2.44%	0.00136	+30.02%	0.2563	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001127	-2.72%	0.001551	+33.94%	0.2856	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001029	-1.62%	0.001198	+14.53%	0.0890	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001177	-2.31%	0.001223	+1.49%	0.0193	✓	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.00128	-3.23%	0.001349	+1.97%	0.0317	✓	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001118	-2.29%	0.001424	+24.48%	0.2469	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001077	-1.47%	0.001041	-4.76%	0.0460	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001005	+0.17%	0.001046	+4.29%	0.0073	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001145	+0.50%	0.001158	+1.67%	0.0189	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001395	+0.20%	0.001046	-24.86%	0.2569	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001464	+0.12%	0.001205	-17.58%	0.1973	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001542	+0.29%	0.001323	-13.92%	0.1653	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001835	-1.09%	0.001144	-38.33%	0.5038	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001578	+1.47%	0.001093	-29.71%	0.3968	✗	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001826	+0.60%	0.001003	-44.74%	0.6471	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001836	+0.99%	0.001139	-37.35%	0.5805	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002211	-0.69%	0.001392	-37.47%	0.5336	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002252	-0.96%	0.001462	-35.71%	0.5097	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002449	-1.70%	0.001537	-38.30%	0.5246	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002479	-1.90%	0.001855	-26.59%	0.3372	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.00229	-0.90%	0.001555	-32.71%	0.4197	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002549	-1.39%	0.001815	-29.79%	0.3219	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002667	-1.70%	0.001818	-32.99%	0.3120	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003026	-2.63%	0.002226	-28.38%	0.2483	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003184	-2.66%	0.002274	-30.48%	0.2754	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003526	-3.74%	0.002491	-32.00%	0.2821	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003667	-3.86%	0.002527	-33.74%	0.3173	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004257	-5.59%	0.002311	-48.75%	0.5545	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003762	-4.68%	0.002585	-34.51%	0.3051	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.00359	-4.50%	0.002713	-27.83%	0.2181	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.00376	-5.38%	0.003108	-21.79%	0.1431	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003386	-4.67%	0.003271	-7.91%	0.0135	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003389	-4.97%	0.003663	+2.72%	0.0819	✗	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003194	-4.27%	0.003814	+14.33%	0.1787	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003966	-7.84%	0.004509	+4.79%	0.1421	✗	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002865	-1.93%	0.003947	+35.12%	0.3002	✗	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002719	-1.18%	0.003759	+36.62%	0.2979	✗	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003255	-4.27%	0.003974	+16.88%	0.1882	✗	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002681	-1.03%	0.003552	+31.12%	0.2733	✗	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002557	+0.84%	0.003566	+40.62%	0.3355	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002761	+0.05%	0.003336	+20.87%	0.1907	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003335	-3.11%	0.004303	+25.01%	0.2523	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003719	-4.01%	0.002921	-24.60%	0.2677	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003752	-4.10%	0.002752	-29.67%	0.3619	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004064	-4.55%	0.0034	-20.15%	0.3766	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004387	-5.45%	0.002709	-41.62%	0.8024	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.00475	-6.48%	0.002536	-50.07%	1.0404	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005141	-7.68%	0.00276	-50.43%	1.0041	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004936	-7.35%	0.003442	-35.40%	0.6542	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.00547	-10.21%	0.003874	-36.41%	0.6844	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004256	-4.36%	0.003912	-12.09%	0.2594	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004719	-7.29%	0.004258	-16.35%	0.2472	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004053	-2.41%	0.00464	+11.73%	0.1804	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004249	-3.66%	0.005079	+15.17%	0.2168	✗	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.004002	-1.40%	0.005568	+37.18%	0.3581	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003774	-0.03%	0.005328	+41.14%	0.3983	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003873	-0.34%	0.006092	+56.77%	0.4947	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004208	-1.64%	0.00445	+4.02%	0.0683	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.00494	-4.36%	0.00509	-1.45%	0.0260	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.00513	-5.27%	0.004153	-23.31%	0.2056	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005261	-6.22%	0.00441	-21.39%	0.1577	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005245	-6.81%	0.004059	-27.88%	0.2095	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005642	-7.55%	0.003775	-38.15%	0.3573	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005486	-8.47%	0.003886	-35.17%	0.3218	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005739	-8.84%	0.004278	-32.05%	0.2466	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.00544	-7.98%	0.005165	-12.64%	0.0084	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004712	-6.07%	0.005415	+7.95%	0.1992	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005578	-7.87%	0.00561	-7.33%	0.0379	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005819	-8.54%	0.005628	-11.55%	0.0193	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007377	-11.48%	0.006103	-26.77%	0.2030	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.005929	-10.11%	0.005994	-9.13%	0.0377	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004116	-5.52%	0.006296	+44.54%	0.4304	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004043	-5.55%	0.005912	+38.10%	0.3567	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.