ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s6

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +1d

assessed

170

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

58.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0988

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0076

actual -0.0113

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001364	-0.69%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001253	-0.42%	0.001374	+9.18%	0.0965	✗	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001258	-0.40%	0.001259	-0.36%	0.0206	✓	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001148	-0.02%	0.001263	+9.97%	0.0988	✗	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001227	-0.22%	0.001148	-6.59%	0.0790	✓	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001272	-0.37%	0.001229	-3.68%	0.0313	✓	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001254	-0.32%	0.001277	+1.47%	0.0307	✗	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.00109	+0.61%	0.001258	+16.11%	0.1319	✓	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.001148	+0.31%	0.001084	-5.29%	0.0266	✗	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001133	+0.57%	0.001144	+1.55%	0.0179	✗	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001362	-0.31%	0.001126	-17.56%	0.1526	✓	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001354	-0.24%	0.001367	+0.70%	0.0060	✓	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001233	+0.24%	0.001357	+10.33%	0.0884	✓	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001354	-0.04%	0.00123	-9.19%	0.1133	✓	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001442	-0.27%	0.001355	-6.30%	0.0305	✓	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001558	-0.37%	0.001445	-7.58%	0.0309	✓	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001625	-0.38%	0.001564	-4.14%	0.0343	✓	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001633	-0.28%	0.001631	-0.37%	0.0147	✗	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001692	-0.35%	0.001638	-3.56%	0.0699	✓	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001751	-0.45%	0.001698	-3.47%	0.0359	✓	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001877	-0.59%	0.001759	-6.83%	0.0578	✓	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001861	-0.70%	0.001888	+0.75%	0.0133	✓	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001788	-0.56%	0.001874	+4.23%	0.0487	✗	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001696	-0.36%	0.001798	+5.64%	0.0548	✗	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.001895	-0.54%	0.001702	-10.66%	0.0861	✓	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001971	-0.61%	0.001905	-3.93%	0.0350	✓	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.002005	-0.62%	0.001983	-1.73%	0.0181	✓	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002231	-1.20%	0.002018	-10.63%	0.0942	✓	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001926	-0.42%	0.002258	+16.75%	0.1589	✗	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.00214	-0.86%	0.001934	-10.40%	0.0631	✓	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001742	-0.10%	0.002158	+23.77%	0.2226	✗	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001502	+0.16%	0.001744	+16.27%	0.0319	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001784	-0.16%	0.0015	-16.06%	0.1718	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001827	-0.20%	0.001787	-2.40%	0.0304	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001611	+0.37%	0.001831	+14.08%	0.0282	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001696	+0.21%	0.001605	-5.14%	0.0594	✗	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001681	+0.28%	0.001692	+0.95%	0.0047	✗	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001801	-0.07%	0.001676	-7.02%	0.0222	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001899	-0.21%	0.001803	-5.28%	0.0792	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.001823	-0.25%	0.001903	+4.10%	0.0521	✗	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.001948	-0.42%	0.001828	-6.54%	0.0646	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.00203	-0.53%	0.001956	-4.14%	0.0508	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.00217	-0.75%	0.002041	-6.66%	0.0257	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002221	-0.80%	0.002186	-2.39%	0.0121	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002288	-0.86%	0.00224	-2.97%	0.0061	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002519	-1.04%	0.002308	-9.35%	0.0568	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.00246	-1.00%	0.002546	+2.48%	0.0224	✗	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002979	-1.50%	0.002485	-17.85%	0.1854	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.003047	-2.03%	0.003024	-2.73%	0.0310	✗	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002303	-0.98%	0.003109	+33.68%	0.2085	✗	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.00236	-0.92%	0.002326	-2.35%	0.0124	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002607	-1.02%	0.002382	-9.57%	0.0644	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002895	-1.75%	0.002634	-10.62%	0.1142	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002524	-1.30%	0.002947	+15.25%	0.1678	✗	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.002084	-0.83%	0.002557	+21.70%	0.1960	✗	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002299	-0.88%	0.002101	-9.40%	0.0375	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002148	-0.85%	0.002319	+7.06%	0.0505	✗	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001924	-0.67%	0.002166	+11.82%	0.1078	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002252	-0.79%	0.001937	-14.67%	0.1421	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002339	-0.87%	0.00227	-3.81%	0.0549	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002611	-1.11%	0.00236	-10.61%	0.1149	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002556	-1.00%	0.00264	+2.25%	0.0587	✗	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002981	-2.33%	0.002582	-15.40%	0.2970	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002252	-1.61%	0.003052	+33.33%	0.2102	✗	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001922	-1.44%	0.002289	+17.38%	0.0579	✗	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001956	-1.52%	0.00195	-1.81%	0.0082	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001847	-1.41%	0.001986	+6.03%	0.0306	✗	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001925	-1.52%	0.001873	-4.19%	0.0228	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.00205	-1.75%	0.001955	-6.32%	0.0488	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001909	-1.61%	0.002087	+7.58%	0.1010	✗	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.002163	-2.17%	0.00194	-12.26%	0.1092	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001986	-2.24%	0.002211	+8.86%	0.1107	✗	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.00172	-1.77%	0.002031	+15.99%	0.1764	✗	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001683	-1.98%	0.001751	+1.98%	0.0642	✗	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001559	-1.87%	0.001717	+8.06%	0.0978	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001572	-1.79%	0.001589	-0.75%	0.0101	✓	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.002066	-2.51%	0.001601	-24.45%	0.2705	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001947	-2.55%	0.002119	+6.06%	0.0929	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.002262	-5.03%	0.001998	-16.12%	0.1371	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001335	-1.52%	0.002382	+75.66%	0.5657	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001334	-1.45%	0.001356	+0.15%	0.0168	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001547	-1.66%	0.001354	-13.92%	0.1512	✓	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001647	-1.76%	0.001573	-6.15%	0.0442	✓	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001666	-1.76%	0.001676	-1.18%	0.0498	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001717	-1.74%	0.001696	-2.92%	0.0313	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.001772	-1.73%	0.001747	-3.11%	0.0152	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.002028	-2.29%	0.001803	-13.15%	0.1212	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.00199	-2.19%	0.002076	+2.06%	0.0805	✗	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.00223	-3.23%	0.002034	-11.72%	0.1173	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.002205	-4.74%	0.002304	-0.48%	0.0392	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.00146	-1.47%	0.002315	+56.21%	0.4849	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001346	-1.06%	0.001482	+8.97%	0.1229	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.00152	-2.00%	0.00136	-12.31%	0.1005	✓	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001192	-0.53%	0.001551	+29.47%	0.2345	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001218	-0.44%	0.001198	-2.04%	0.0283	✓	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001338	-0.78%	0.001223	-9.34%	0.0876	✓	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001406	-1.28%	0.001349	-5.27%	0.0623	✓	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.001048	+0.65%	0.001424	+36.79%	0.3040	✓	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.001053	+0.69%	0.001041	-0.48%	0.0101	✓	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001162	+0.34%	0.001046	-9.67%	0.0989	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.001058	+1.14%	0.001158	+10.71%	0.0320	✓	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001213	+0.62%	0.001046	-13.20%	0.1175	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001327	+0.27%	0.001205	-8.92%	0.0955	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001156	+1.07%	0.001323	+15.65%	0.1421	✓	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001109	+1.44%	0.001144	+4.67%	0.0121	✓	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.001021	+1.81%	0.001093	+8.97%	0.0498	✓	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001156	+1.45%	0.001003	-11.94%	0.1213	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001404	+0.84%	0.001139	-18.18%	0.1970	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001474	+0.80%	0.001392	-4.79%	0.0644	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001549	+0.76%	0.001462	-4.88%	0.0667	✗	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001863	+0.43%	0.001537	-17.14%	0.2035	✗	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.00157	+0.98%	0.001855	+19.29%	0.1484	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001829	+0.75%	0.001555	-14.33%	0.1944	✗	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.001834	+0.89%	0.001815	-0.17%	0.0423	✗	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002234	+0.37%	0.001818	-18.33%	0.1744	✗	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002283	+0.39%	0.002226	-2.11%	0.0386	✗	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002497	+0.23%	0.002274	-8.71%	0.0845	✗	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002532	+0.19%	0.002491	-1.42%	0.0150	✗	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.00232	+0.38%	0.002527	+9.35%	0.0800	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002589	+0.15%	0.002311	-10.60%	0.0913	✗	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002714	+0.02%	0.002585	-4.72%	0.0204	✗	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.003102	-0.20%	0.002713	-12.71%	0.1141	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003263	-0.25%	0.003108	-4.98%	0.0598	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003645	-0.48%	0.003271	-10.70%	0.0936	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003792	-0.57%	0.003663	-3.96%	0.0462	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004443	-1.45%	0.003814	-15.41%	0.1630	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003915	-0.82%	0.004509	+14.24%	0.1726	✗	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003733	-0.70%	0.003947	+5.00%	0.0799	✗	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.00393	-1.11%	0.003759	-5.41%	0.0312	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.00353	-0.63%	0.003974	+11.88%	0.1077	✗	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003543	-0.66%	0.003552	-0.39%	0.0223	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003323	-0.40%	0.003566	+6.89%	0.0538	✗	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.00418	-2.87%	0.003336	-22.47%	0.2249	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002932	+0.39%	0.004303	+47.31%	0.3690	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002772	+0.73%	0.002921	+6.16%	0.0541	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003392	-0.24%	0.002752	-19.07%	0.2042	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002734	+0.91%	0.0034	+25.51%	0.2190	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002572	+1.43%	0.002709	+6.82%	0.0538	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002795	+1.26%	0.002536	-8.12%	0.0973	✗	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003454	+0.36%	0.00276	-19.81%	0.2530	✗	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003874	-0.01%	0.003442	-11.15%	0.1205	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003903	-0.24%	0.003874	-0.97%	0.0342	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.004219	-0.91%	0.003912	-8.13%	0.1845	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.004577	-1.37%	0.004258	-8.23%	0.1386	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.00499	-1.75%	0.00464	-8.64%	0.0785	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.005437	-2.34%	0.005079	-8.78%	0.0568	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.005217	-2.08%	0.005568	+4.50%	0.0610	✗	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.005851	-3.95%	0.005328	-12.54%	0.1185	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.004404	-1.03%	0.006092	+36.90%	0.2970	✗	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.004971	-2.34%	0.00445	-12.57%	0.1443	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.004129	-0.58%	0.00509	+22.56%	0.2057	✗	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.004367	-0.98%	0.004153	-5.83%	0.0545	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.00405	-0.22%	0.00441	+8.65%	0.0693	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.00377	-0.14%	0.004059	+7.52%	0.1015	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003875	-0.28%	0.003775	-2.86%	0.0271	✓	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.004255	-0.53%	0.003886	-9.16%	0.1000	✓	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.005108	-1.10%	0.004278	-17.17%	0.1751	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.005348	-1.23%	0.005165	-4.62%	0.0289	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.005538	-1.28%	0.005415	-3.48%	0.0135	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.005563	-1.16%	0.00561	-0.32%	0.0206	✗	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.006028	-1.22%	0.005628	-7.78%	0.0435	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.005914	-1.34%	0.006103	+1.82%	0.0092	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.0062	-1.53%	0.005994	-4.80%	0.0188	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005836	-1.28%	0.006296	+6.50%	0.0911	✗	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004981	-0.69%	0.005912	+17.86%	0.1771	✗	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005978	-1.25%	0.005016	-17.15%	0.1945	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.006265	-1.54%	0.006054	-4.86%	0.0400	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.007938	-4.75%	0.006363	-23.65%	0.2235	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.006394	-3.06%	0.008334	+26.35%	0.2827	✗	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004323	-0.76%	0.006596	+51.42%	0.4160	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.004244	-0.86%	0.004356	+1.75%	0.0129	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.