ASTEROID1

? · · gru_s6

token id: #794
symbol: ASTEROID1
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-25
predictions: 513

Track record at +30d

assessed

141

of 171 predictions shown

direction hit

76.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.4568

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.1029

actual -0.3451

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001374	0.001257	-8.50%	–	pending	–	–	1.58
2026-10-20	oos	0.001259	0.001161	-7.73%	–	pending	–	–	1.54
2026-10-19	oos	0.001263	0.001166	-7.67%	–	pending	–	–	1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.001148	0.001061	-7.59%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-17	oos	0.001229	0.001126	-8.43%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-16	oos	0.001277	0.001161	-9.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.71
2026-10-15	oos	0.001258	0.001143	-9.15%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-14	oos	0.001084	0.00099884	-7.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-13	oos	0.001144	0.00105	-8.22%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-12	oos	0.001126	0.001036	-8.02%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-11	oos	0.001367	0.001246	-8.81%	–	pending	–	–	1.60
2026-10-10	oos	0.001357	0.001234	-9.05%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-09	oos	0.00123	0.001122	-8.79%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-10-08	oos	0.001355	0.001234	-8.93%	–	pending	–	–	1.67
2026-10-07	oos	0.001445	0.001318	-8.82%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-06	oos	0.001564	0.001448	-7.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.65
2026-10-05	oos	0.001631	0.001519	-6.89%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-10-04	oos	0.001638	0.001545	-5.64%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-10-03	oos	0.001698	0.001589	-6.40%	–	pending	–	–	1.80
2026-10-02	oos	0.001759	0.001638	-6.86%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-10-01	oos	0.001888	0.001754	-7.08%	–	pending	–	–	1.75
2026-09-30	oos	0.001874	0.001718	-8.32%	–	pending	–	–	1.81
2026-09-29	oos	0.001798	0.001657	-7.83%	–	pending	–	–	1.70
2026-09-28	oos	0.001702	0.001582	-7.08%	–	pending	–	–	1.68
2026-09-27	oos	0.001905	0.00178	-6.58%	–	pending	–	–	1.77
2026-09-26	oos	0.001983	0.001852	-6.63%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-25	oos	0.002018	0.001888	-6.45%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-24	oos	0.002258	0.002094	-7.25%	–	pending	–	–	1.76
2026-09-23	oos	0.001934	0.001846	-4.54%	–	pending	–	–	1.78
2026-09-22	oos	0.002158	0.002071	-4.05%	–	pending	–	–	1.79
2026-09-21	oos	0.001744	0.001717	-1.57%	0.001374	-21.22%	0.1385	✓	1.83
2026-09-20	oos	0.0015	0.001417	-5.53%	0.001259	-16.10%	0.1579	✓	1.81
2026-09-19	oos	0.001787	0.001698	-5.00%	0.001263	-29.32%	0.3089	✓	1.78
2026-09-18	oos	0.001831	0.001742	-4.88%	0.001148	-37.27%	0.4416	✓	1.82
2026-09-17	oos	0.001605	0.001488	-7.30%	0.001229	-23.40%	0.3013	✓	1.73
2026-09-16	oos	0.001692	0.001563	-7.62%	0.001277	-24.56%	0.3178	✓	1.70
2026-09-15	oos	0.001676	0.001545	-7.79%	0.001258	-24.94%	0.3339	✓	1.54
2026-09-14	oos	0.001803	0.001684	-6.60%	0.001084	-39.89%	0.5036	✓	1.48
2026-09-13	oos	0.001903	0.001755	-7.80%	0.001144	-39.88%	0.5480	✓	1.52
2026-09-12	oos	0.001828	0.00168	-8.12%	0.001126	-38.38%	0.4875	✓	1.56
2026-09-11	oos	0.001956	0.00179	-8.47%	0.001367	-30.14%	0.3946	✓	1.55
2026-09-10	oos	0.002041	0.001855	-9.10%	0.001357	-33.50%	0.4386	✓	1.58
2026-09-09	oos	0.002186	0.00199	-8.96%	0.00123	-43.73%	0.5649	✓	1.58
2026-09-08	oos	0.00224	0.002039	-8.95%	0.001355	-39.52%	0.4862	✓	1.90
2026-09-07	oos	0.002308	0.002109	-8.62%	0.001445	-37.37%	0.4749	✓	1.88
2026-09-06	oos	0.002546	0.002324	-8.74%	0.001564	-38.57%	0.5196	✓	1.97
2026-09-05	oos	0.002485	0.002267	-8.77%	0.001631	-34.33%	0.4663	✓	1.92
2026-09-04	oos	0.003024	0.002729	-9.76%	0.001638	-45.86%	0.6683	✓	1.91
2026-09-03	oos	0.003109	0.00282	-9.32%	0.001698	-45.39%	0.5883	✓	1.94
2026-09-02	oos	0.002326	0.002112	-9.18%	0.001759	-24.38%	0.3465	✓	1.84
2026-09-01	oos	0.002382	0.002179	-8.54%	0.001888	-20.74%	0.3133	✓	1.85
2026-08-31	oos	0.002634	0.002429	-7.77%	0.001874	-28.85%	0.3664	✓	1.74
2026-08-30	oos	0.002947	0.002699	-8.43%	0.001798	-38.99%	0.5320	✓	1.70
2026-08-29	oos	0.002557	0.002366	-7.49%	0.001702	-33.44%	0.4424	✓	1.75
2026-08-28	oos	0.002101	0.001947	-7.34%	0.001905	-9.33%	0.1635	✓	1.74
2026-08-27	oos	0.002319	0.002193	-5.41%	0.001983	-14.49%	0.1864	✓	1.70
2026-08-26	oos	0.002166	0.002034	-6.10%	0.002018	-6.83%	0.1119	✓	1.68
2026-08-25	oos	0.001937	0.001818	-6.16%	0.002258	+16.57%	0.0953	✗	1.69
2026-08-24	oos	0.00227	0.002135	-5.93%	0.001934	-14.80%	0.1972	✓	1.49
2026-08-23	oos	0.00236	0.002202	-6.69%	0.002158	-8.54%	0.1805	✓	1.55
2026-08-22	oos	0.00264	0.002453	-7.10%	0.001744	-33.94%	0.5271	✓	1.59
2026-08-21	oos	0.002582	0.002426	-6.04%	0.0015	-41.91%	0.5381	✓	1.61
2026-08-20	oos	0.003052	0.002737	-10.33%	0.001787	-41.45%	0.6591	✓	2.18
2026-08-19	oos	0.002289	0.002014	-12.00%	0.001831	-20.01%	0.3729	✓	1.80
2026-08-18	oos	0.00195	0.001685	-13.61%	0.001605	-17.69%	0.3295	✓	1.69
2026-08-17	oos	0.001986	0.001715	-13.65%	0.001692	-14.80%	0.2890	✓	1.66
2026-08-16	oos	0.001873	0.001612	-13.93%	0.001676	-10.52%	0.2633	✓	1.64
2026-08-15	oos	0.001955	0.001676	-14.25%	0.001803	-7.80%	0.2807	✓	1.64
2026-08-14	oos	0.002087	0.001787	-14.38%	0.001903	-8.82%	0.2642	✓	1.65
2026-08-13	oos	0.00194	0.001655	-14.67%	0.001828	-5.77%	0.2276	✓	1.66
2026-08-12	oos	0.002211	0.001877	-15.11%	0.001956	-11.53%	0.2920	✓	1.69
2026-08-11	oos	0.002031	0.001707	-15.93%	0.002041	+0.47%	0.1347	✓	1.68
2026-08-10	oos	0.001751	0.001476	-15.70%	0.002186	+24.84%	0.0466	✓	1.71
2026-08-09	oos	0.001717	0.001427	-16.87%	0.00224	+30.43%	0.1296	✓	1.69
2026-08-08	oos	0.001589	0.001312	-17.41%	0.002308	+45.25%	0.2363	✗	1.66
2026-08-07	oos	0.001601	0.001324	-17.31%	0.002546	+59.03%	0.3318	✗	1.51
2026-08-06	oos	0.002119	0.001749	-17.45%	0.002485	+17.25%	0.0014	✓	1.61
2026-08-05	oos	0.001998	0.001636	-18.11%	0.003024	+51.38%	0.2836	✗	1.58
2026-08-04	oos	0.002382	0.001907	-19.95%	0.003109	+30.54%	0.1307	✓	1.51
2026-08-03	oos	0.001356	0.001135	-16.30%	0.002326	+71.53%	0.4391	✗	1.41
2026-08-02	oos	0.001354	0.001135	-16.19%	0.002382	+75.92%	0.4615	✗	1.41
2026-08-01	oos	0.001573	0.001311	-16.64%	0.002634	+67.45%	0.3500	✗	1.55
2026-07-31	oos	0.001676	0.001397	-16.63%	0.002947	+75.84%	0.4178	✗	1.55
2026-07-30	oos	0.001696	0.001417	-16.47%	0.002557	+50.77%	0.3109	✗	1.48
2026-07-29	oos	0.001747	0.001469	-15.94%	0.002101	+20.26%	0.0623	✓	1.50
2026-07-28	oos	0.001803	0.00152	-15.72%	0.002319	+28.62%	0.0897	✓	1.45
2026-07-27	oos	0.002076	0.001733	-16.51%	0.002166	+4.34%	0.0870	✓	1.44
2026-07-26	oos	0.002034	0.001709	-15.97%	0.001937	-4.77%	0.1485	✓	1.49
2026-07-25	oos	0.002304	0.001906	-17.27%	0.00227	-1.48%	0.1504	✓	1.58
2026-07-24	oos	0.002315	0.001896	-18.11%	0.00236	+1.94%	0.0506	✓	1.40
2026-07-23	oos	0.001482	0.001296	-12.56%	0.00264	+78.14%	0.4393	✗	1.61
2026-07-22	oos	0.00136	0.001206	-11.32%	0.002582	+89.85%	0.4776	✗	1.67
2026-07-21	oos	0.001551	0.00136	-12.35%	0.003052	+96.78%	0.6547	✗	1.65
2026-07-20	oos	0.001198	0.001078	-10.00%	0.002289	+91.07%	0.6635	✗	1.47
2026-07-19	oos	0.001223	0.001111	-9.13%	0.00195	+59.44%	0.5623	✗	1.47
2026-07-18	oos	0.001349	0.001223	-9.37%	0.001986	+47.22%	0.4924	✗	1.47
2026-07-17	oos	0.001424	0.001287	-9.61%	0.001873	+31.53%	0.4002	✗	1.51
2026-07-16	oos	0.001041	0.000972726	-6.56%	0.001955	+87.80%	0.7153	✗	1.46
2026-07-15	oos	0.001046	0.000975027	-6.79%	0.002087	+99.52%	0.8012	✗	1.47
2026-07-14	oos	0.001158	0.001077	-6.99%	0.00194	+67.53%	0.6242	✗	1.47
2026-07-13	oos	0.001046	0.000991695	-5.19%	0.002211	+111.38%	0.7769	✗	1.36
2026-07-12	oos	0.001205	0.001136	-5.76%	0.002031	+68.55%	0.5857	✗	1.29
2026-07-11	oos	0.001323	0.001247	-5.73%	0.001751	+32.35%	0.3365	✗	1.30
2026-07-10	oos	0.001144	0.001086	-5.07%	0.001717	+50.09%	0.4434	✗	1.32
2026-07-09	oos	0.001093	0.001047	-4.22%	0.001589	+45.38%	0.3825	✗	1.28
2026-07-08	oos	0.001003	0.000965759	-3.71%	0.001601	+59.62%	0.4545	✗	1.22
2026-07-07	oos	0.001139	0.001103	-3.13%	0.002119	+86.04%	0.6352	✗	1.17
2026-07-06	oos	0.001392	0.001368	-1.73%	0.001998	+43.53%	0.3684	✗	1.12
2026-07-05	oos	0.001462	0.001443	-1.30%	0.002382	+62.93%	0.4929	✗	1.13
2026-07-04	oos	0.001537	0.001522	-1.01%	0.001356	-11.78%	0.1221	✓	1.15
2026-07-03	oos	0.001855	0.001833	-1.17%	0.001354	-27.01%	0.3223	✓	1.24
2026-07-02	oos	0.001555	0.001546	-0.56%	0.001573	+1.16%	0.0053	✓	1.09
2026-07-01	oos	0.001815	0.001803	-0.67%	0.001676	-7.66%	0.1332	✓	1.29
2026-06-30	oos	0.001818	0.00181	-0.45%	0.001696	-6.71%	0.1966	✓	1.31
2026-06-29	oos	0.002226	0.002183	-1.93%	0.001747	-21.52%	0.2920	✓	1.15
2026-06-28	oos	0.002274	0.002227	-2.06%	0.001803	-20.71%	0.2937	✓	1.16
2026-06-27	oos	0.002491	0.002424	-2.68%	0.002076	-16.66%	0.2250	✓	1.15
2026-06-26	oos	0.002527	0.002451	-3.02%	0.002034	-19.51%	0.2844	✓	1.15
2026-06-25	oos	0.002311	0.002258	-2.30%	0.002304	-0.30%	0.0619	✓	1.11
2026-06-24	oos	0.002585	0.002497	-3.39%	0.002315	-10.44%	0.1279	✓	1.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.002713	0.002601	-4.14%	0.001482	-45.37%	0.6018	✓	1.05
2026-06-22	oos	0.003108	0.00294	-5.40%	0.00136	-56.24%	0.8026	✓	0.96
2026-06-21	oos	0.003271	0.003082	-5.77%	0.001551	-52.58%	0.7372	✓	1.00
2026-06-20	oos	0.003663	0.003403	-7.11%	0.001198	-67.29%	1.0584	✓	0.95
2026-06-19	oos	0.003814	0.003526	-7.55%	0.001223	-67.93%	1.0773	✓	0.98
2026-06-18	oos	0.004509	0.004047	-10.25%	0.001349	-70.08%	1.1313	✓	1.09
2026-06-17	oos	0.003947	0.003613	-8.47%	0.001424	-63.92%	0.9201	✓	1.27
2026-06-16	oos	0.003759	0.003454	-8.11%	0.001041	-72.31%	1.1613	✓	1.34
2026-06-15	oos	0.003974	0.003603	-9.35%	0.001046	-73.68%	1.2051	✓	1.33
2026-06-14	oos	0.003552	0.003276	-7.76%	0.001158	-67.40%	1.0263	✓	1.25
2026-06-13	oos	0.003566	0.003288	-7.80%	0.001046	-70.67%	1.1018	✓	1.27
2026-06-12	oos	0.003336	0.003107	-6.86%	0.001205	-63.88%	0.9511	✓	1.21
2026-06-11	oos	0.004303	0.003766	-12.48%	0.001323	-69.25%	1.0502	✓	1.26
2026-06-10	oos	0.002921	0.002784	-4.69%	0.001144	-60.84%	0.9075	✓	0.43
2026-06-09	oos	0.002752	0.002635	-4.22%	0.001093	-60.28%	0.8902	✓	0.42
2026-06-08	oos	0.0034	0.003156	-7.17%	0.001003	-70.50%	1.1434	✓	0.23
2026-06-07	oos	0.002709	0.002578	-4.83%	0.001139	-57.95%	0.8170	✓	0.21
2026-06-06	oos	0.002536	0.002442	-3.69%	0.001392	-45.11%	0.5596	✓	-0.05
2026-06-05	oos	0.00276	0.002644	-4.20%	0.001462	-47.03%	0.5908	✓	-0.04
2026-06-04	oos	0.003442	0.003194	-7.20%	0.001537	-55.35%	0.7389	✓	-0.64
2026-06-03	oos	0.003874	0.003531	-8.85%	0.001855	-52.12%	0.6590	✓	-0.64
2026-06-02	oos	0.003912	0.003498	-10.58%	0.001555	-60.25%	0.8649	✓	-0.67
2026-06-01	oos	0.004258	0.003657	-14.12%	0.001815	-57.37%	0.9800	✓	-1.61
2026-05-31	oos	0.00464	0.0039	-15.94%	0.001818	-60.82%	1.2509	✓	-2.13
2026-05-30	oos	0.005079	0.00421	-17.10%	0.002226	-56.17%	1.0746	✓	-2.14
2026-05-29	oos	0.005568	0.004537	-18.52%	0.002274	-59.16%	1.1265	✓	-2.08
2026-05-28	oos	0.005328	0.004366	-18.06%	0.002491	-53.25%	0.9845	✓	-2.07
2026-05-27	oos	0.006092	0.004819	-20.90%	0.002527	-58.52%	1.1333	✓	-2.28
2026-05-26	oos	0.00445	0.003775	-15.18%	0.002311	-48.07%	0.8156	✓	-1.36
2026-05-25	oos	0.00509	0.00423	-16.90%	0.002585	-49.21%	0.9195	✓	-1.81
2026-05-24	oos	0.004153	0.003585	-13.68%	0.002713	-34.67%	0.0726	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.00441	0.003779	-14.31%	0.003108	-29.52%	0.0143	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.004059	0.00352	-13.28%	0.003271	-19.41%	0.1031	✓	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.003775	0.003297	-12.67%	0.003663	-2.97%	0.2939	✗	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.003886	0.003395	-12.63%	0.003814	-1.85%	0.3157	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.004278	0.003734	-12.71%	0.004509	+5.40%	0.3881	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.005165	0.00448	-13.26%	0.003947	-23.58%	0.0506	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.005415	0.0047	-13.20%	0.003759	-30.58%	0.0582	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.00561	0.004897	-12.70%	0.003974	-29.16%	0.0447	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.005628	0.004979	-11.53%	0.003552	-36.89%	0.1527	✓	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.006103	0.005479	-10.23%	0.003566	-41.57%	0.1996	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.005994	0.0053	-11.58%	0.003336	-44.34%	0.2414	✓	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.006296	0.005609	-10.91%	0.004303	-31.66%	0.0291	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.005912	0.005394	-8.76%	0.002921	-50.59%	0.3281	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.005016	0.004661	-7.08%	0.002752	-45.15%	0.2399	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	0.006054	0.005485	-9.40%	0.0034	-43.84%	0.2322	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.006363	0.005712	-10.23%	0.002709	-57.43%	0.5096	✓	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.008334	0.006991	-16.11%	0.002536	-69.57%	0.7404	✓	1.00
2026-05-06	oos	0.006596	0.00595	-9.80%	0.00276	-58.16%	0.4797	✓	1.00
2026-05-05	oos	0.004356	0.004051	-6.99%	0.003442	-20.98%	0.0745	✗	1.00
2026-05-04	oos	0.004281	0.003942	-7.91%	0.003874	-9.51%	0.2032	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.