UMX

UMX · · gru_s5

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +7d

assessed

61

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

83.6%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0765

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0137

actual -0.0783

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.04123	-1.47%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.038735	-1.54%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042224	-1.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054055	-1.99%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.054537	-1.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.054968	-1.58%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058174	-1.56%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058194	-1.44%	0.041845	-29.13%	0.3373	✓	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.05846	-1.48%	0.03934	-33.70%	0.4048	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058641	-1.31%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3116	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.05955	-1.44%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0771	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.05948	-1.20%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0639	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059877	-1.31%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0631	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060068	-1.44%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0119	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059433	-1.81%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0083	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.060611	-1.96%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0138	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.060663	-1.70%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0090	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.060263	-2.31%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0223	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.06033	-2.24%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0122	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.059922	-2.40%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0214	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.060244	-2.36%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0213	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.060237	-2.02%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0211	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060022	-2.23%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0310	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060036	-1.92%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0180	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.059455	-1.91%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0253	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.059696	-1.72%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0223	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.06003	-1.69%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0207	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.059836	-1.77%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0284	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.0601	-1.75%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0201	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060103	-1.75%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0259	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.059889	-1.39%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0383	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.06035	-1.34%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0252	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.060123	-2.14%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0117	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059271	-1.97%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0080	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.060184	-1.93%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0101	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.060004	-1.87%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0322	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.060882	-1.82%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0483	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.060056	-1.32%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0552	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.059766	-1.25%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0440	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.060201	-0.94%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0145	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.06188	-1.14%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0557	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.06415	-1.38%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0745	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.064253	-1.24%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0479	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064158	-1.08%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0130	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.065753	-1.12%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0484	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067333	-1.07%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0972	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069299	-0.90%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0915	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071253	-0.87%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0968	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071555	-0.71%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0639	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072849	-0.38%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0532	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.073752	-0.66%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.1410	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.073968	-0.55%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.1200	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074636	-0.42%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0989	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075393	-0.52%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.1091	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074812	-0.42%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0603	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.07596	-0.48%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0759	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.076812	-0.19%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0614	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.081883	-0.35%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0760	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.083209	-0.41%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0977	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.088375	-0.38%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.1594	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.086264	-0.53%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.1286	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.086173	-0.62%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.1523	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.083113	-0.42%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0789	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.081709	-1.27%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1547	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.083231	-1.92%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1442	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.083053	-2.23%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1880	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.082716	-2.28%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1329	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.082577	-2.23%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1637	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.