UMX

UMX · · gru_s5

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +30d

assessed

37

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

100.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1909

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0713

actual -0.2589

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.04463	-4.23%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041249	-3.88%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.052644	-4.54%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.052867	-4.58%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.053194	-4.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.056277	-4.77%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.056356	-4.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.056638	-4.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.056887	-4.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.057643	-4.60%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.057592	-4.34%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.057885	-4.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.058034	-4.78%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.057388	-5.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.058571	-5.26%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.058622	-5.01%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.058361	-5.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.05866	-4.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.058084	-5.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.058262	-5.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.05798	-5.69%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.057603	-6.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.057245	-6.48%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.056607	-6.61%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.056704	-6.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.056771	-7.02%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.056573	-7.13%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.056784	-7.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.056651	-7.39%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.056522	-6.94%	–	pending	–	–	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.057058	-6.72%	0.0466	-23.82%	0.1764	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.056295	-8.37%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.2833	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.055502	-8.20%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0106	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.056308	-8.25%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0241	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.056075	-8.30%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0369	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.056874	-8.28%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0032	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.056011	-7.97%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0108	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.055853	-7.71%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0326	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.056151	-7.61%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0069	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.057839	-7.60%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0072	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.060057	-7.67%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0500	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.060156	-7.54%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0428	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.060269	-7.08%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0292	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.061817	-7.04%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0526	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.063356	-6.92%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.0665	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.065217	-6.74%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.1106	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.06704	-6.73%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.1547	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.067295	-6.63%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.1689	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.068881	-5.81%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.1570	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.069494	-6.39%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.2080	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.069858	-6.08%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.2197	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.070602	-5.80%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.2014	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.071252	-5.99%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.2260	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.070798	-5.77%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.2199	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.071796	-5.94%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.2489	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.072648	-5.60%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.2241	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.076996	-6.30%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.2964	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.078203	-6.40%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.3176	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.083018	-6.42%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.3715	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.081348	-6.19%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.3956	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.081564	-5.93%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.4045	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.079216	-5.09%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.2897	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.077789	-6.01%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.3587	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.079156	-6.72%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.4090	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.078638	-7.43%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.4174	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.078348	-7.44%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.4002	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.077887	-7.78%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.4314	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.