UMX

UMX · · gru_s5

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +1d

assessed

66

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

62.1%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0230

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0062

actual -0.0127

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.046414	-0.40%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042742	-0.40%	0.0466	+8.59%	0.0871	✗	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054673	-0.87%	0.042915	-22.18%	0.2460	✓	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055124	-0.51%	0.05515	-0.46%	0.0011	✓	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055565	-0.51%	0.055405	-0.80%	0.0051	✓	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058773	-0.54%	0.05585	-5.49%	0.0506	✓	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058724	-0.54%	0.059095	+0.08%	0.0086	✗	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.058962	-0.64%	0.059045	-0.50%	0.0006	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059017	-0.68%	0.05934	-0.13%	0.0114	✗	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.05999	-0.71%	0.05942	-1.66%	0.0147	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059761	-0.74%	0.06042	+0.36%	0.0192	✗	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060207	-0.76%	0.060205	-0.77%	0.0033	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060472	-0.78%	0.06067	-0.45%	0.0017	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.06008	-0.74%	0.060945	+0.69%	0.0108	✗	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061348	-0.77%	0.06053	-2.09%	0.0066	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061286	-0.70%	0.061825	+0.18%	0.0196	✗	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061185	-0.82%	0.061715	+0.04%	0.0096	✗	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061205	-0.82%	0.06169	-0.03%	0.0117	✗	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060871	-0.85%	0.06171	+0.51%	0.0052	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.061164	-0.87%	0.061395	-0.49%	0.0026	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.061044	-0.71%	0.0617	+0.36%	0.0124	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060902	-0.79%	0.06148	+0.15%	0.0031	✓	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060832	-0.62%	0.06139	+0.29%	0.0096	✗	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.060226	-0.64%	0.06121	+0.98%	0.0153	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.06034	-0.66%	0.060615	-0.21%	0.0100	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.060665	-0.65%	0.06074	-0.52%	0.0010	✓	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060498	-0.68%	0.06106	+0.24%	0.0075	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.060721	-0.73%	0.060915	-0.42%	0.0048	✓	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.060697	-0.77%	0.06117	+0.00%	0.0077	✓	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060307	-0.71%	0.06117	+0.72%	0.0259	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060727	-0.72%	0.060735	-0.71%	0.0027	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.06091	-0.85%	0.06117	-0.43%	0.0314	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.059976	-0.80%	0.061435	+1.61%	0.0245	✗	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.060897	-0.77%	0.06046	-1.48%	0.0097	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.060759	-0.64%	0.06137	+0.36%	0.0196	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.061611	-0.64%	0.06115	-1.39%	0.0089	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.060563	-0.49%	0.06201	+1.89%	0.0199	✗	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.060251	-0.44%	0.06086	+0.56%	0.0322	✗	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.060566	-0.34%	0.06052	-0.42%	0.0119	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.062362	-0.37%	0.060775	-2.91%	0.0219	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064766	-0.43%	0.062595	-3.77%	0.0346	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.064803	-0.39%	0.065045	-0.02%	0.0019	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064631	-0.35%	0.06506	+0.31%	0.0238	✗	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.066237	-0.39%	0.06486	-2.46%	0.0194	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067748	-0.47%	0.066495	-2.31%	0.0120	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069609	-0.46%	0.068065	-2.67%	0.0086	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071514	-0.50%	0.06993	-2.71%	0.0287	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071731	-0.47%	0.071875	-0.27%	0.0000	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072819	-0.42%	0.07207	-1.45%	0.0094	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.073905	-0.45%	0.07313	-1.50%	0.0605	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.074052	-0.44%	0.07424	-0.19%	0.0037	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074622	-0.44%	0.07438	-0.76%	0.0117	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075438	-0.46%	0.07495	-1.11%	0.0180	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.074807	-0.43%	0.07579	+0.88%	0.0204	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.075982	-0.46%	0.07513	-1.57%	0.0163	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.07662	-0.44%	0.07633	-0.82%	0.0270	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.081707	-0.56%	0.07696	-6.34%	0.0755	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.08305	-0.60%	0.08217	-1.65%	0.0170	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.088068	-0.72%	0.08355	-5.82%	0.0469	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.08611	-0.70%	0.08871	+2.29%	0.0138	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.086075	-0.73%	0.08672	+0.01%	0.0013	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.082911	-0.66%	0.08671	+3.89%	0.0612	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.082191	-0.69%	0.08346	+0.85%	0.0549	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.084205	-0.77%	0.08276	-2.47%	0.0695	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.08429	-0.78%	0.08486	-0.11%	0.0622	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.084022	-0.74%	0.08495	+0.35%	0.0078	✗	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.083884	-0.68%	0.08465	+0.22%	0.0167	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.