SWM
Swarm · · gru_s5
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +7d
assessed
49
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
55.1%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2592
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0383
actual +0.0251
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.08826 | -2.94% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.088322 | -2.76% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.089014 | -2.66% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.089528 | -2.62% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.091079 | -2.69% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.091156 | -2.62% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.092395 | -2.78% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.086537 | -2.43% | 0.090935 | +2.53% | 0.0887 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.087722 | -2.40% | 0.090825 | +1.06% | 0.0809 | ✗ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.100212 | -3.28% | 0.091445 | -11.74% | 0.0949 | ✓ | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.097912 | -3.03% | 0.09194 | -8.95% | 0.0609 | ✓ | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.097236 | -2.99% | 0.093595 | -6.62% | 0.0734 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.097109 | -2.95% | 0.09361 | -6.45% | 0.0693 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.096184 | -2.74% | 0.09504 | -3.89% | 0.0343 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.096377 | -2.66% | 0.08869 | -10.43% | 0.0738 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.093943 | -2.51% | 0.089875 | -6.73% | 0.0807 | ✓ | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.095579 | -2.83% | 0.10361 | +5.33% | 0.0277 | ✓ | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.083351 | -1.32% | 0.100975 | +19.55% | 0.1064 | ✗ | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.090414 | -2.63% | 0.10023 | +7.94% | 0.0418 | ✗ | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.08854 | -2.48% | 0.100065 | +10.21% | 0.0810 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.0909 | -2.97% | 0.09889 | +5.56% | 0.0398 | ✗ | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.092075 | -3.23% | 0.099015 | +4.07% | 0.0007 | ✓ | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.104481 | -3.42% | 0.096365 | -10.92% | 0.0871 | ✓ | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.121847 | -3.86% | 0.098365 | -22.39% | 0.1715 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.118758 | -3.87% | 0.084465 | -31.63% | 0.2896 | ✓ | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.149955 | -5.21% | 0.092855 | -41.30% | 0.4293 | ✓ | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.122502 | -4.22% | 0.090795 | -29.01% | 0.2917 | ✓ | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.101293 | -3.92% | 0.09368 | -11.14% | 0.0682 | ✓ | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.099795 | -4.05% | 0.095145 | -8.52% | 0.0366 | ✓ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.099447 | -4.27% | 0.10818 | +4.14% | 0.0644 | ✗ | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.090303 | -4.76% | 0.12674 | +33.67% | 0.2804 | ✗ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.098116 | -4.59% | 0.123535 | +20.12% | 0.1572 | ✗ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.108022 | -4.51% | 0.15819 | +39.84% | 0.4666 | ✗ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.113415 | -4.62% | 0.127905 | +7.56% | 0.2028 | ✗ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.113995 | -4.69% | 0.10542 | -11.86% | 0.0056 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.122723 | -5.09% | 0.10401 | -19.57% | 0.2655 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.132711 | -5.50% | 0.10388 | -26.03% | 0.3476 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.122969 | -5.27% | 0.094815 | -26.96% | 0.3914 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.146966 | -5.63% | 0.10284 | -33.96% | 0.4593 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.147373 | -5.90% | 0.11312 | -27.77% | 0.3197 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.172605 | -6.98% | 0.11891 | -35.91% | 0.4228 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.18069 | -7.86% | 0.1196 | -39.01% | 0.4590 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.169899 | -8.61% | 0.12931 | -30.44% | 0.2705 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.128304 | -6.14% | 0.14044 | +2.74% | 0.1181 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.128258 | -6.50% | 0.129815 | -5.36% | 0.0493 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.110753 | -5.73% | 0.15573 | +32.55% | 0.3525 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.098333 | -4.45% | 0.156615 | +52.18% | 0.5105 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.075241 | -2.26% | 0.18555 | +141.04% | 0.9353 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.074195 | -1.91% | 0.196105 | +159.26% | 1.0034 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.072381 | -1.24% | 0.18591 | +153.66% | 1.0032 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.069357 | -1.09% | 0.1367 | +94.95% | 0.6660 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.069106 | -0.97% | 0.13717 | +96.57% | 0.6721 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.068899 | -0.81% | 0.117485 | +69.14% | 0.5269 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.070521 | -1.29% | 0.102915 | +44.06% | 0.3441 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.070662 | -1.39% | 0.07698 | +7.42% | 0.0654 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.073134 | -2.00% | 0.07564 | +1.35% | 0.0104 | ✓ | 1.00 |