SWM
Swarm · · gru_s5
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +30d
assessed
26
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
65.4%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2829
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.1253
actual -0.1438
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.083559 | -8.11% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.083928 | -7.59% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.08459 | -7.50% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.085017 | -7.53% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.08634 | -7.75% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.086365 | -7.74% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.087195 | -8.25% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.081797 | -7.77% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.082783 | -7.89% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.09385 | -9.42% | – | pending | – | – | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.09167 | -9.22% | – | pending | – | – | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.091141 | -9.07% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.090852 | -9.21% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.089957 | -9.03% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.08996 | -9.14% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.087797 | -8.89% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.089461 | -9.05% | – | pending | – | – | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.077925 | -7.74% | – | pending | – | – | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.084587 | -8.90% | – | pending | – | – | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.082403 | -9.24% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.08442 | -9.88% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.085481 | -10.16% | – | pending | – | – | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.09725 | -10.10% | – | pending | – | – | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.113165 | -10.71% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.110248 | -10.76% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.137615 | -13.01% | – | pending | – | – | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.113493 | -11.27% | – | pending | – | – | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.093884 | -10.94% | – | pending | – | – | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.092335 | -11.23% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.09178 | -11.65% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.082879 | -12.59% | 0.090935 | -4.09% | 0.0476 | ✓ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.090464 | -12.03% | 0.090825 | -11.68% | 0.0558 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.099318 | -12.20% | 0.091445 | -19.16% | 0.0363 | ✓ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.104227 | -12.35% | 0.09194 | -22.68% | 0.1095 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.104641 | -12.51% | 0.093595 | -21.74% | 0.0817 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.111692 | -13.62% | 0.09361 | -27.61% | 0.2404 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.120296 | -14.34% | 0.09504 | -32.33% | 0.3036 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.111581 | -14.05% | 0.08869 | -31.68% | 0.3126 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.13327 | -14.42% | 0.089875 | -42.29% | 0.4364 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.133012 | -15.07% | 0.10361 | -33.84% | 0.3287 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.15411 | -16.94% | 0.100975 | -45.58% | 0.4792 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.159931 | -18.45% | 0.10023 | -48.89% | 0.5477 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.149435 | -19.62% | 0.100065 | -46.18% | 0.4810 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.115941 | -15.19% | 0.09889 | -27.66% | 0.2121 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.115587 | -15.73% | 0.099015 | -27.82% | 0.1953 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.100941 | -14.08% | 0.096365 | -17.98% | 0.0979 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.091063 | -11.52% | 0.098365 | -4.42% | 0.0144 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.07085 | -7.96% | 0.084465 | +9.72% | 0.1043 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.070116 | -7.30% | 0.092855 | +22.76% | 0.1986 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.068869 | -6.03% | 0.090795 | +23.88% | 0.2345 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.065464 | -6.64% | 0.09368 | +33.60% | 0.2694 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.065412 | -6.26% | 0.095145 | +36.35% | 0.2828 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.06555 | -5.63% | 0.10818 | +55.74% | 0.4394 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.066959 | -6.27% | 0.12674 | +77.41% | 0.5640 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.067292 | -6.10% | 0.123535 | +72.39% | 0.5429 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.06969 | -6.62% | 0.15819 | +111.97% | 0.7381 | ✗ | 1.00 |