SWM

Swarm · · gru_s5

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 168

Track record at +1d

assessed

55

of 56 predictions shown

direction hit

45.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0731

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0084

actual +0.0044

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.090935	0.090295	-0.70%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-21	oos	0.090825	0.09028	-0.60%	0.090935	+0.12%	0.0108	✗	-1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.090915	-0.58%	0.090825	-0.68%	0.0194	✗	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091407	-0.58%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0214	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.093027	-0.61%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0150	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.093056	-0.59%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0179	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094446	-0.62%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0112	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088263	-0.48%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0621	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089458	-0.46%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0020	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102839	-0.74%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1663	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.100296	-0.67%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0609	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.099572	-0.66%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0269	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099404	-0.66%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0244	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098295	-0.60%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0256	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098425	-0.60%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0230	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095833	-0.55%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0010	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097737	-0.64%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0633	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.084273	-0.23%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1503	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.092366	-0.53%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1056	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090371	-0.47%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0661	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.093153	-0.56%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0203	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094598	-0.57%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0175	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107455	-0.67%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0932	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.125634	-0.87%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1514	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.122482	-0.85%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0383	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.155894	-1.45%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2577	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.126554	-1.06%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2242	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.104537	-0.84%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2095	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.103132	-0.84%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0149	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.102973	-0.87%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0102	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.094028	-0.83%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0582	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.101993	-0.82%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0821	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.112149	-0.86%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0517	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.117831	-0.91%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0428	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.11853	-0.89%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0127	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.128004	-1.01%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1255	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.138794	-1.17%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0734	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.128507	-1.01%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0814	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.153816	-1.23%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1359	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.154614	-1.28%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0106	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.182391	-1.70%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1463	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.192053	-2.07%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0351	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.181396	-2.43%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0692	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.134523	-1.59%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3461	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.134731	-1.78%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0166	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.115558	-1.64%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1796	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.101565	-1.31%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1613	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076508	-0.61%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2902	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.075233	-0.54%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0210	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.07301	-0.38%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0551	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.069906	-0.31%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0026	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069575	-0.29%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0090	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069264	-0.28%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0223	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.071136	-0.43%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0353	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.071299	-0.50%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0093	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.074055	-0.77%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0379	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.