PROS

Pharos · native · gru_s5

token id: #473
symbol: PROS
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-04-28
predictions: 504

Track record at +1d

assessed

167

of 168 predictions shown

direction hit

51.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0382

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0053

actual +0.0006

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.62925	0.62533	-0.62%	–	pending	–	–	0.69
2026-10-20	oos	0.6195	0.616839	-0.43%	0.62925	+1.57%	0.0219	✗	0.67
2026-10-19	oos	0.63415	0.63112	-0.48%	0.6195	-2.31%	0.0275	✓	0.66
2026-10-18	oos	0.6322	0.628705	-0.55%	0.63415	+0.31%	0.0100	✗	0.68
2026-10-17	oos	0.6148	0.612074	-0.44%	0.6322	+2.83%	0.0273	✗	0.66
2026-10-16	oos	0.6534	0.647919	-0.84%	0.6148	-5.91%	0.0515	✓	0.66
2026-10-15	oos	0.59205	0.589478	-0.43%	0.6534	+10.36%	0.1080	✗	0.66
2026-10-14	oos	0.58455	0.582206	-0.40%	0.59205	+1.28%	0.0122	✗	0.66
2026-10-13	oos	0.62335	0.619372	-0.64%	0.58455	-6.22%	0.0463	✓	0.62
2026-10-12	oos	0.6167	0.612716	-0.65%	0.62335	+1.08%	0.0070	✗	0.62
2026-10-11	oos	0.6777	0.671554	-0.91%	0.6167	-9.00%	0.0734	✓	0.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.67945	0.673259	-0.91%	0.6777	-0.26%	0.0015	✓	0.55
2026-10-09	oos	0.6611	0.655586	-0.83%	0.67945	+2.78%	0.0333	✗	0.55
2026-10-08	oos	0.6411	0.636214	-0.76%	0.6611	+3.12%	0.0328	✗	0.54
2026-10-07	oos	0.6584	0.652627	-0.88%	0.6411	-2.63%	0.0074	✓	0.54
2026-10-06	oos	0.65775	0.651828	-0.90%	0.6584	+0.10%	0.0246	✗	0.54
2026-10-05	oos	0.74105	0.733522	-1.02%	0.65775	-11.24%	0.1077	✓	0.54
2026-10-04	oos	0.81385	0.801253	-1.55%	0.74105	-8.95%	0.0737	✓	0.50
2026-10-03	oos	0.71825	0.711195	-0.98%	0.81385	+13.31%	0.1256	✗	0.45
2026-10-02	oos	0.747	0.73874	-1.11%	0.71825	-3.85%	0.0294	✓	0.44
2026-10-01	oos	0.702	0.695152	-0.98%	0.747	+6.41%	0.0738	✗	0.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.71695	0.707776	-1.28%	0.702	-2.09%	0.0153	✓	0.46
2026-09-29	oos	0.6801	0.673281	-1.00%	0.71695	+5.42%	0.0633	✗	0.46
2026-09-28	oos	0.67065	0.662429	-1.23%	0.6801	+1.41%	0.0254	✗	0.45
2026-09-27	oos	0.6561	0.646814	-1.42%	0.67065	+2.22%	0.0424	✗	0.52
2026-09-26	oos	0.61765	0.612297	-0.87%	0.6561	+6.23%	0.0688	✗	0.52
2026-09-25	oos	0.66155	0.652475	-1.37%	0.61765	-6.64%	0.0569	✓	0.52
2026-09-24	oos	0.6188	0.612913	-0.95%	0.66155	+6.91%	0.0782	✗	0.53
2026-09-23	oos	0.5799	0.574312	-0.96%	0.6188	+6.71%	0.0746	✗	0.53
2026-09-22	oos	0.5784	0.573611	-0.83%	0.5799	+0.26%	0.0231	✗	0.57
2026-09-21	oos	0.57385	0.568247	-0.98%	0.5784	+0.79%	0.0206	✗	0.63
2026-09-20	oos	0.51255	0.509497	-0.60%	0.57385	+11.96%	0.0837	✗	0.54
2026-09-19	oos	0.53845	0.534494	-0.73%	0.51255	-4.81%	0.0414	✓	0.53
2026-09-18	oos	0.5385	0.534237	-0.79%	0.53845	-0.01%	0.0055	✓	0.54
2026-09-17	oos	0.5153	0.511451	-0.75%	0.5385	+4.50%	0.0224	✗	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.5154	0.511482	-0.76%	0.5153	-0.02%	0.0061	✓	0.49
2026-09-15	oos	0.48715	0.483974	-0.65%	0.5154	+5.80%	0.0600	✗	0.40
2026-09-14	oos	0.49675	0.492808	-0.79%	0.48715	-1.93%	0.0018	✓	0.40
2026-09-13	oos	0.4746	0.471832	-0.58%	0.49675	+4.67%	0.0445	✗	0.39
2026-09-12	oos	0.4807	0.477844	-0.59%	0.4746	-1.27%	0.0045	✓	0.39
2026-09-11	oos	0.49005	0.485857	-0.86%	0.4807	-1.91%	0.0109	✓	0.38
2026-09-10	oos	0.4923	0.485703	-1.34%	0.49005	-0.46%	0.0057	✓	0.36
2026-09-09	oos	0.47825	0.472551	-1.19%	0.4923	+2.94%	0.0496	✗	0.38
2026-09-08	oos	0.4381	0.436164	-0.44%	0.47825	+9.16%	0.0928	✗	0.33
2026-09-07	oos	0.4485	0.445358	-0.70%	0.4381	-2.32%	0.0138	✓	0.33
2026-09-06	oos	0.423	0.422342	-0.16%	0.4485	+6.03%	0.0660	✗	0.38
2026-09-05	oos	0.4154	0.414741	-0.16%	0.423	+1.83%	0.0173	✗	0.39
2026-09-04	oos	0.4117	0.411008	-0.17%	0.4154	+0.90%	0.0099	✗	0.36
2026-09-03	oos	0.4087	0.408276	-0.10%	0.4117	+0.73%	0.0158	✗	0.38
2026-09-02	oos	0.4061	0.405057	-0.26%	0.4087	+0.64%	0.0051	✓	0.28
2026-09-01	oos	0.4139	0.412616	-0.31%	0.4061	-1.88%	0.0156	✓	0.28
2026-08-31	oos	0.41255	0.411325	-0.30%	0.4139	+0.33%	0.0101	✗	0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.41705	0.41554	-0.36%	0.41255	-1.08%	0.0106	✓	0.29
2026-08-29	oos	0.42505	0.423388	-0.39%	0.41705	-1.88%	0.0131	✓	0.27
2026-08-28	oos	0.4201	0.41856	-0.37%	0.42505	+1.18%	0.0140	✗	0.27
2026-08-27	oos	0.416	0.414653	-0.32%	0.4201	+0.99%	0.0220	✗	0.29
2026-08-26	oos	0.4084	0.407099	-0.32%	0.416	+1.86%	0.0172	✗	0.29
2026-08-25	oos	0.42005	0.418079	-0.47%	0.4084	-2.77%	0.0253	✓	0.29
2026-08-24	oos	0.4475	0.443694	-0.85%	0.42005	-6.13%	0.0533	✓	0.25
2026-08-23	oos	0.4067	0.405016	-0.41%	0.4475	+10.03%	0.0962	✗	0.22
2026-08-22	oos	0.3926	0.391549	-0.27%	0.4067	+3.59%	0.0361	✗	0.21
2026-08-21	oos	0.4206	0.41882	-0.42%	0.3926	-6.66%	0.0617	✓	0.18
2026-08-20	oos	0.3974	0.396098	-0.33%	0.4206	+5.84%	0.0534	✗	0.09
2026-08-19	oos	0.3977	0.396082	-0.41%	0.3974	-0.08%	0.0027	✓	0.12
2026-08-18	oos	0.3879	0.386208	-0.44%	0.3977	+2.53%	0.0249	✗	0.06
2026-08-17	oos	0.3685	0.367375	-0.31%	0.3879	+5.26%	0.0541	✗	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.36755	0.366344	-0.33%	0.3685	+0.26%	0.0036	✗	0.09
2026-08-15	oos	0.3763	0.375185	-0.30%	0.36755	-2.33%	0.0203	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.3692	0.368354	-0.23%	0.3763	+1.92%	0.0213	✗	0.11
2026-08-13	oos	0.37805	0.377071	-0.26%	0.3692	-2.34%	0.0205	✓	0.08
2026-08-12	oos	0.3789	0.377871	-0.27%	0.37805	-0.22%	0.0005	✓	0.11
2026-08-11	oos	0.39165	0.390323	-0.34%	0.3789	-3.26%	0.0294	✓	0.16
2026-08-10	oos	0.40075	0.399274	-0.37%	0.39165	-2.27%	0.0182	✓	0.19
2026-08-09	oos	0.4089	0.407086	-0.44%	0.40075	-1.99%	0.0128	✓	0.20
2026-08-08	oos	0.39285	0.391293	-0.40%	0.4089	+4.09%	0.0442	✗	0.21
2026-08-07	oos	0.3932	0.391617	-0.40%	0.39285	-0.09%	0.0031	✓	0.14
2026-08-06	oos	0.39495	0.393222	-0.44%	0.3932	-0.44%	0.0018	✓	0.18
2026-08-05	oos	0.3944	0.392696	-0.43%	0.39495	+0.14%	0.0069	✗	0.23
2026-08-04	oos	0.4014	0.399692	-0.43%	0.3944	-1.74%	0.0154	✓	0.24
2026-08-03	oos	0.4148	0.412732	-0.50%	0.4014	-3.23%	0.0302	✓	0.26
2026-08-02	oos	0.4402	0.437725	-0.56%	0.4148	-5.77%	0.0537	✓	0.25
2026-08-01	oos	0.445	0.442452	-0.57%	0.4402	-1.08%	0.0077	✓	0.22
2026-07-31	oos	0.4356	0.433337	-0.52%	0.445	+2.16%	0.0268	✗	0.22
2026-07-30	oos	0.45125	0.448557	-0.60%	0.4356	-3.47%	0.0233	✓	0.20
2026-07-29	oos	0.43425	0.431719	-0.58%	0.45125	+3.91%	0.0428	✗	0.12
2026-07-28	oos	0.4267	0.423831	-0.67%	0.43425	+1.77%	0.0242	✗	0.08
2026-07-27	oos	0.39845	0.397152	-0.33%	0.4267	+7.09%	0.0715	✗	0.10
2026-07-26	oos	0.3781	0.37722	-0.23%	0.39845	+5.38%	0.0586	✗	0.15
2026-07-25	oos	0.3859	0.384886	-0.26%	0.3781	-2.02%	0.0203	✓	0.16
2026-07-24	oos	0.38545	0.384269	-0.31%	0.3859	+0.12%	0.0037	✗	0.16
2026-07-23	oos	0.38005	0.378615	-0.38%	0.38545	+1.42%	0.0204	✗	0.17
2026-07-22	oos	0.36415	0.363581	-0.16%	0.38005	+4.37%	0.0474	✗	0.20
2026-07-21	oos	0.3413	0.34123	-0.02%	0.36415	+6.69%	0.0664	✗	0.21
2026-07-20	oos	0.32435	0.324435	+0.03%	0.3413	+5.23%	0.0474	✓	0.16
2026-07-19	oos	0.3499	0.349819	-0.02%	0.32435	-7.30%	0.0771	✓	0.19
2026-07-18	oos	0.36655	0.366317	-0.06%	0.3499	-4.54%	0.0455	✓	0.19
2026-07-17	oos	0.3948	0.394252	-0.14%	0.36655	-7.16%	0.0760	✓	0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.3936	0.393127	-0.12%	0.3948	+0.30%	0.0038	✗	0.22
2026-07-15	oos	0.38725	0.386852	-0.10%	0.3936	+1.64%	0.0208	✗	0.24
2026-07-14	oos	0.3841	0.38373	-0.10%	0.38725	+0.82%	0.0101	✗	0.24
2026-07-13	oos	0.39075	0.390392	-0.09%	0.3841	-1.70%	0.0277	✓	0.27
2026-07-12	oos	0.4157	0.415033	-0.16%	0.39075	-6.00%	0.0549	✓	0.23
2026-07-11	oos	0.4171	0.416365	-0.18%	0.4157	-0.34%	0.0015	✓	0.23
2026-07-10	oos	0.4142	0.413386	-0.20%	0.4171	+0.70%	0.0102	✗	0.23
2026-07-09	oos	0.393	0.392397	-0.15%	0.4142	+5.39%	0.0512	✗	0.19
2026-07-08	oos	0.3995	0.398789	-0.18%	0.393	-1.63%	0.0176	✓	0.20
2026-07-07	oos	0.4145	0.413458	-0.25%	0.3995	-3.62%	0.0312	✓	0.18
2026-07-06	oos	0.4056	0.404617	-0.24%	0.4145	+2.19%	0.0262	✗	0.19
2026-07-05	oos	0.391	0.390362	-0.16%	0.4056	+3.73%	0.0371	✗	0.18
2026-07-04	oos	0.4201	0.41932	-0.19%	0.391	-6.93%	0.0715	✓	0.20
2026-07-03	oos	0.4244	0.423581	-0.19%	0.4201	-1.01%	0.0101	✓	0.20
2026-07-02	oos	0.41635	0.415662	-0.17%	0.4244	+1.93%	0.0178	✗	0.18
2026-07-01	oos	0.416	0.415427	-0.14%	0.41635	+0.08%	0.0021	✓	0.17
2026-06-30	oos	0.4175	0.41709	-0.10%	0.416	-0.36%	0.0066	✓	0.17
2026-06-29	oos	0.4548	0.453391	-0.31%	0.4175	-8.20%	0.0800	✓	0.09
2026-06-28	oos	0.4599	0.458037	-0.41%	0.4548	-1.11%	0.0081	✓	0.09
2026-06-27	oos	0.45985	0.458798	-0.23%	0.4599	+0.01%	0.0031	✗	0.09
2026-06-26	oos	0.4278	0.427788	-0.00%	0.45985	+7.49%	0.0724	✗	0.08
2026-06-25	oos	0.4346	0.434685	+0.02%	0.4278	-1.56%	0.0164	✗	0.08
2026-06-24	oos	0.4589	0.458647	-0.06%	0.4346	-5.30%	0.0528	✓	0.05
2026-06-23	oos	0.50205	0.501029	-0.20%	0.4589	-8.59%	0.0889	✓	-0.04
2026-06-22	oos	0.54155	0.539603	-0.36%	0.50205	-7.29%	0.0741	✓	-0.10
2026-06-21	oos	0.551	0.548922	-0.38%	0.54155	-1.72%	0.0125	✓	-0.09
2026-06-20	oos	0.5585	0.556119	-0.43%	0.551	-1.34%	0.0107	✓	-0.10
2026-06-19	oos	0.56415	0.562025	-0.38%	0.5585	-1.00%	0.0052	✓	-0.10
2026-06-18	oos	0.603	0.59925	-0.62%	0.56415	-6.44%	0.0598	✓	-0.06
2026-06-17	oos	0.5519	0.549975	-0.35%	0.603	+9.26%	0.0933	✗	0.05
2026-06-16	oos	0.55775	0.555514	-0.40%	0.5519	-1.05%	0.0056	✓	0.05
2026-06-15	oos	0.58475	0.581609	-0.54%	0.55775	-4.62%	0.0415	✓	0.04
2026-06-14	oos	0.5825	0.57972	-0.48%	0.58475	+0.39%	0.0084	✗	0.03
2026-06-13	oos	0.5929	0.590092	-0.47%	0.5825	-1.75%	0.0137	✓	0.04
2026-06-12	oos	0.6168	0.612906	-0.63%	0.5929	-3.87%	0.0342	✓	0.07
2026-06-11	oos	0.5536	0.552071	-0.28%	0.6168	+11.42%	0.1109	✗	0.05
2026-06-10	oos	0.5864	0.584568	-0.31%	0.5536	-5.59%	0.0599	✓	0.16
2026-06-09	oos	0.5821	0.580392	-0.29%	0.5864	+0.74%	0.0109	✗	0.16
2026-06-08	oos	0.6027	0.600293	-0.40%	0.5821	-3.42%	0.0277	✓	0.14
2026-06-07	oos	0.6361	0.632762	-0.52%	0.6027	-5.25%	0.0481	✓	0.14
2026-06-06	oos	0.6441	0.641003	-0.48%	0.6361	-1.24%	0.0144	✓	0.17
2026-06-05	oos	0.6468	0.64279	-0.62%	0.6441	-0.42%	0.0025	✓	0.17
2026-06-04	oos	0.6134	0.610986	-0.39%	0.6468	+5.45%	0.0745	✗	0.39
2026-06-03	oos	0.6096	0.607324	-0.37%	0.6134	+0.62%	0.0114	✗	0.39
2026-06-02	oos	0.6055	0.602689	-0.46%	0.6096	+0.68%	0.0314	✗	0.50
2026-06-01	oos	0.6317	0.626671	-0.80%	0.6055	-4.15%	0.0003	✓	0.51
2026-05-31	oos	0.62555	0.620705	-0.77%	0.6317	+0.98%	0.0394	✗	0.70
2026-05-30	oos	0.6181	0.613893	-0.68%	0.62555	+1.21%	0.0207	✗	0.71
2026-05-29	oos	0.60905	0.605439	-0.59%	0.6181	+1.49%	0.0170	✗	0.68
2026-05-28	oos	0.6264	0.621888	-0.72%	0.60905	-2.77%	0.0195	✓	0.68
2026-05-27	oos	0.639	0.63371	-0.83%	0.6264	-1.97%	0.0007	✓	1.00
2026-05-26	oos	0.6087	0.604782	-0.64%	0.639	+4.98%	0.0752	✗	1.00
2026-05-25	oos	0.6174	0.613299	-0.66%	0.6087	-1.41%	0.0111	✗	1.00
2026-05-24	oos	0.6173	0.613485	-0.62%	0.6174	+0.02%	0.0028	✓	1.00
2026-05-23	oos	0.6524	0.647583	-0.74%	0.6173	-5.38%	0.0521	✓	1.00
2026-05-22	oos	0.6387	0.634317	-0.69%	0.6524	+2.14%	0.0122	✗	1.00
2026-05-21	oos	0.6602	0.654731	-0.83%	0.6387	-3.26%	0.0027	✓	1.00
2026-05-20	oos	0.6316	0.627573	-0.64%	0.6602	+4.53%	0.0498	✗	1.00
2026-05-19	oos	0.5749	0.573053	-0.32%	0.6316	+9.86%	0.0881	✗	1.00
2026-05-18	oos	0.6347	0.631486	-0.51%	0.5749	-9.42%	0.0916	✓	1.00
2026-05-17	oos	0.7222	0.717122	-0.70%	0.6347	-12.12%	0.1161	✓	1.00
2026-05-16	oos	0.763	0.756334	-0.87%	0.7222	-5.35%	0.0372	✓	1.00
2026-05-15	oos	0.7118	0.70749	-0.61%	0.763	+7.19%	0.0877	✗	1.00
2026-05-14	oos	0.7403	0.735171	-0.69%	0.7118	-3.85%	0.0071	✓	1.00
2026-05-13	oos	0.7024	0.698391	-0.57%	0.7403	+5.40%	0.0359	✗	1.00
2026-05-12	oos	0.7669	0.761737	-0.67%	0.7024	-8.41%	0.0661	✓	1.00
2026-05-11	oos	0.8004	0.794758	-0.70%	0.7669	-4.19%	0.0204	✓	1.00
2026-05-10	oos	0.9108	0.900248	-1.16%	0.8004	-12.12%	0.1118	✓	1.00
2026-05-09	oos	1.0032	0.981212	-2.19%	0.9108	-9.21%	0.0934	✓	1.00
2026-05-08	oos	0.8663	0.847556	-2.16%	1.0032	+15.80%	0.1628	✗	1.00
2026-05-07	oos	0.6322	0.629611	-0.41%	0.8663	+37.03%	0.3168	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.