NIULAI

? · · gru_s5

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +7d

assessed

48

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

68.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1783

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0465

actual -0.0428

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.06254	0.06031	-3.57%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.060295	-3.53%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.05643	-2.62%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.057292	-2.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.058198	-2.11%	–	pending	–	–	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.06322	-2.76%	–	pending	–	–	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.065384	-2.96%	–	pending	–	–	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.067605	-2.91%	0.06254	-10.18%	0.0987	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.071862	-3.71%	0.0625	-16.25%	0.1367	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.070052	-2.79%	0.05795	-19.58%	0.1914	✓	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.076123	-3.97%	0.058765	-25.87%	0.2305	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.077141	-3.66%	0.059455	-25.75%	0.2342	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.072581	-2.17%	0.065015	-12.37%	0.0922	✓	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.07223	-1.19%	0.06738	-7.82%	0.0769	✓	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.071007	-0.95%	0.06963	-2.87%	0.0104	✗	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.076993	-2.63%	0.07463	-5.62%	0.0080	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.075242	-2.03%	0.07206	-6.17%	0.0220	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.080055	-2.79%	0.07927	-3.74%	0.0342	✗	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.07857	-1.92%	0.080075	-0.04%	0.0481	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.085033	-2.88%	0.07419	-15.26%	0.1053	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.095285	-4.01%	0.0731	-26.36%	0.2168	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.100284	-4.33%	0.071685	-31.61%	0.3313	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.100448	-4.45%	0.079075	-24.78%	0.2687	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.110072	-4.98%	0.0768	-33.70%	0.3951	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.099352	-4.50%	0.08235	-20.84%	0.2206	✓	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.100858	-4.71%	0.08011	-24.31%	0.2356	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.099405	-4.70%	0.08755	-16.06%	0.1337	✓	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.095958	-4.65%	0.09927	-1.36%	0.0264	✓	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.101767	-5.25%	0.104825	-2.41%	0.0429	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.106099	-5.54%	0.10513	-6.41%	0.0303	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.101847	-5.50%	0.115845	+7.49%	0.1776	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.095772	-5.26%	0.10403	+2.91%	0.0242	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.101428	-6.01%	0.10584	-1.92%	0.0127	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.112168	-6.23%	0.104305	-12.80%	0.1286	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.099761	-6.12%	0.10064	-5.30%	0.0913	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.093499	-7.01%	0.10741	+6.82%	0.0360	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.110903	-7.36%	0.112325	-6.17%	0.1187	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.113107	-7.48%	0.10777	-11.84%	0.1506	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.108159	-7.63%	0.10109	-13.66%	0.1228	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.125673	-6.86%	0.107915	-20.02%	0.2025	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.11793	-6.23%	0.11962	-4.89%	0.0322	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.114024	-6.06%	0.10627	-12.45%	0.0680	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.073786	-6.11%	0.10055	+27.95%	0.3372	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.095973	-6.02%	0.11971	+17.22%	0.2582	✗	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.075014	-8.13%	0.12225	+49.72%	0.5000	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.083914	-7.81%	0.11709	+28.64%	0.3782	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.113746	-5.65%	0.134925	+11.92%	0.2035	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.079943	-4.97%	0.125765	+49.51%	0.4846	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.092296	-4.17%	0.12138	+26.03%	0.3339	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.07496	-3.67%	0.078585	+0.98%	0.0347	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.080803	-3.07%	0.102125	+22.51%	0.2207	✗	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.099105	-3.66%	0.08165	-20.63%	0.2004	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.096805	-4.61%	0.09102	-10.31%	0.0955	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.054765	-0.32%	0.12056	+119.44%	0.7689	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.055824	-0.42%	0.08412	+50.05%	0.3867	✗	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.