NIULAI

? · · gru_s5

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +1d

assessed

54

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

59.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0923

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0092

actual +0.0006

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.06254	0.062156	-0.61%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.062085	-0.66%	0.06254	+0.06%	0.0118	✗	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.057781	-0.29%	0.0625	+7.85%	0.0581	✗	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.058624	-0.24%	0.05795	-1.39%	0.0084	✓	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.059397	-0.10%	0.058765	-1.16%	0.0224	✓	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.06484	-0.27%	0.059455	-8.55%	0.0845	✓	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.067174	-0.31%	0.065015	-3.51%	0.0212	✓	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.069427	-0.29%	0.06738	-3.23%	0.0402	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.074218	-0.55%	0.06963	-6.70%	0.0363	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.071893	-0.23%	0.07463	+3.57%	0.0131	✗	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.078782	-0.62%	0.07206	-9.10%	0.0564	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.07961	-0.58%	0.07927	-1.01%	0.0172	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.074129	-0.08%	0.080075	+7.93%	0.0709	✗	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.073196	+0.13%	0.07419	+1.49%	0.0011	✓	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.071837	+0.21%	0.0731	+1.97%	0.0451	✓	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.078861	-0.27%	0.071685	-9.35%	0.0590	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.076733	-0.09%	0.079075	+2.96%	0.0334	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.08206	-0.35%	0.0768	-6.74%	0.0546	✓	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.080052	-0.07%	0.08235	+2.80%	0.0009	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.087254	-0.34%	0.08011	-8.50%	0.0891	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.098572	-0.70%	0.08755	-11.81%	0.1134	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.103972	-0.81%	0.09927	-5.30%	0.0665	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.10425	-0.84%	0.104825	-0.29%	0.0068	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.114525	-1.14%	0.10513	-9.25%	0.0884	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.103093	-0.90%	0.115845	+11.36%	0.1331	✗	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.104813	-0.97%	0.10403	-1.71%	0.0082	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.10331	-0.95%	0.10584	+1.47%	0.0189	✗	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.099741	-0.89%	0.104305	+3.64%	0.0495	✗	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.106249	-1.08%	0.10064	-6.30%	0.0543	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.110949	-1.22%	0.10741	-4.38%	0.0045	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.10649	-1.19%	0.112325	+4.23%	0.0594	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.100055	-1.02%	0.10777	+6.61%	0.0208	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.106597	-1.22%	0.10109	-6.32%	0.0517	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.117885	-1.45%	0.107915	-9.79%	0.0947	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.104958	-1.23%	0.11962	+12.56%	0.0732	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.099266	-1.28%	0.10627	+5.69%	0.0655	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.117842	-1.56%	0.10055	-16.01%	0.1661	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.120242	-1.64%	0.11971	-2.08%	0.0293	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.115226	-1.59%	0.12225	+4.41%	0.0414	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.13251	-1.79%	0.11709	-13.22%	0.1177	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.123583	-1.73%	0.134925	+7.28%	0.0871	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.118847	-2.09%	0.125765	+3.61%	0.0478	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.077736	-1.08%	0.12138	+54.46%	0.4682	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.100606	-1.49%	0.078585	-23.05%	0.2449	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.080399	-1.53%	0.102125	+25.08%	0.2474	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.089553	-1.61%	0.08165	-10.29%	0.0767	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.118223	-1.94%	0.09102	-24.50%	0.2678	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.083189	-1.11%	0.12056	+43.32%	0.3691	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.095086	-1.27%	0.08412	-12.66%	0.1028	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.077162	-0.85%	0.09631	+23.76%	0.1718	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.082595	-0.92%	0.07782	-6.65%	0.0584	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.101034	-1.78%	0.08336	-18.97%	0.1774	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.098456	-2.98%	0.10287	+1.37%	0.0324	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.054795	-0.26%	0.10148	+84.71%	0.6236	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.055825	-0.42%	0.05494	-2.00%	0.0210	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.