MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s5

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 138

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

of 46 predictions shown

direction hit

79.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.3405

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0191

actual -0.2757

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.003037	0.002778	-8.51%	–	pending	–	–	1.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.002985	0.002757	-7.65%	–	pending	–	–	1.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001724	-4.19%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001853	-4.57%	–	pending	–	–	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001722	-3.59%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.001991	-4.90%	–	pending	–	–	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002226	-5.72%	–	pending	–	–	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.00228	-5.89%	0.003037	+25.32%	0.2626	✗	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002143	-4.90%	0.002985	+32.51%	0.3048	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.001969	-3.61%	0.0018	-11.92%	0.0880	✓	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002077	-3.58%	0.001942	-9.86%	0.0687	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.001805	-1.34%	0.001786	-2.38%	0.0196	✗	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001816	-0.73%	0.002094	+14.49%	0.1701	✗	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001841	-0.41%	0.002361	+27.75%	0.2677	✗	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002075	-1.44%	0.002423	+15.11%	0.1472	✗	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002341	-2.93%	0.002253	-6.59%	0.0084	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.002312	-2.87%	0.002043	-14.16%	0.0755	✓	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.00275	-4.42%	0.002155	-25.11%	0.1666	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.002283	-1.88%	0.001829	-21.36%	0.1600	✓	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001744	+1.52%	0.001829	+6.46%	0.0785	✓	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001724	+2.37%	0.001849	+9.74%	0.1026	✓	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.00174	+3.09%	0.002105	+24.70%	0.2453	✓	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002432	+1.77%	0.002412	+0.92%	0.0025	✓	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003092	-0.09%	0.00238	-23.09%	0.2996	✓	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003585	-1.39%	0.002877	-20.86%	0.2658	✓	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003614	-1.53%	0.002327	-36.61%	0.4643	✓	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.004406	-3.47%	0.001718	-62.36%	0.9456	✓	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.004745	-3.97%	0.001685	-65.91%	1.0405	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004363	-2.93%	0.001688	-62.45%	0.9552	✓	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004453	-2.91%	0.00239	-47.90%	0.6126	✓	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004674	-3.47%	0.003095	-36.09%	0.3822	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.005132	-4.03%	0.003635	-32.02%	0.3079	✓	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.0044	-1.46%	0.00367	-17.81%	0.2213	✓	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004231	-0.90%	0.004564	+6.91%	0.0374	✗	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005498	-1.88%	0.004941	-11.81%	0.1457	✓	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005473	-0.65%	0.004495	-18.41%	0.2970	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004359	+0.34%	0.004587	+5.59%	0.0517	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.005914	-0.13%	0.004842	-18.24%	0.3314	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.008385	-1.89%	0.005348	-37.43%	0.5521	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.00625	-0.59%	0.004465	-28.97%	0.3915	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.00831	-1.12%	0.004269	-49.20%	0.7162	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006123	-3.75%	0.005603	-11.92%	0.1352	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008248	-2.42%	0.005509	-34.83%	0.4012	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.010028	-4.36%	0.004344	-58.57%	0.8089	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.017532	-1.81%	0.005922	-66.83%	1.0482	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.01739	-3.42%	0.008547	-52.53%	0.6986	✓	1.00