MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s5

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 135

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 45 predictions shown

direction hit

61.4%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1494

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0025

actual -0.0513

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.001936	0.001918	-0.93%	–	pending	–	–	0.82
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001787	-0.68%	0.001936	+7.59%	0.0824	✗	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001926	-0.83%	0.0018	-7.34%	0.0796	✓	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001778	-0.43%	0.001942	+8.73%	0.0900	✗	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.002077	-0.83%	0.001786	-14.71%	0.1580	✓	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002335	-1.14%	0.002094	-11.33%	0.1074	✓	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002391	-1.30%	0.002361	-2.54%	0.0054	✓	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002231	-0.98%	0.002423	+7.55%	0.0764	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.002032	-0.52%	0.002253	+10.28%	0.1235	✗	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002141	-0.60%	0.002043	-5.18%	0.0656	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.00183	+0.03%	0.002155	+17.76%	0.1982	✓	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001832	+0.17%	0.001829	+0.03%	0.0150	✗	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001853	+0.26%	0.001829	-1.05%	0.0197	✗	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002106	+0.04%	0.001849	-12.19%	0.1461	✗	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002404	-0.32%	0.002105	-12.73%	0.1052	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.002373	-0.27%	0.002412	+1.34%	0.0607	✗	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002851	-0.92%	0.00238	-17.27%	0.1764	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.002322	-0.21%	0.002877	+23.66%	0.2307	✗	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001728	+0.59%	0.002327	+35.42%	0.2682	✓	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.001697	+0.75%	0.001718	+1.99%	0.0082	✓	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001703	+0.88%	0.001685	-0.21%	0.0050	✓	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002406	+0.65%	0.001688	-29.37%	0.3809	✗	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003104	+0.30%	0.00239	-22.77%	0.2597	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003636	+0.01%	0.003095	-14.88%	0.1649	✗	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003671	+0.02%	0.003635	-0.94%	0.0023	✓	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.004543	-0.45%	0.00367	-19.59%	0.2140	✓	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.00491	-0.64%	0.004564	-7.64%	0.0769	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.00448	-0.33%	0.004941	+9.93%	0.1015	✗	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.004572	-0.33%	0.004495	-2.01%	0.0171	✓	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004819	-0.48%	0.004587	-5.27%	0.0280	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.00531	-0.71%	0.004842	-9.46%	0.0877	✓	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.004463	-0.05%	0.005348	+19.78%	0.1161	✗	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.004273	+0.09%	0.004465	+4.59%	0.0449	✓	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005592	-0.19%	0.004269	-23.81%	0.2744	✓	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.00551	+0.01%	0.005603	+1.71%	0.0408	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004356	+0.29%	0.005509	+26.82%	0.2321	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.005931	+0.16%	0.004344	-26.65%	0.3188	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.008516	-0.36%	0.005922	-30.71%	0.3295	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.006289	+0.04%	0.008547	+35.96%	0.2890	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.008388	-0.19%	0.006287	-25.20%	0.2824	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.006328	-0.52%	0.008404	+32.11%	0.2829	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.008429	-0.29%	0.006361	-24.74%	0.2901	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.010415	-0.67%	0.008453	-19.38%	0.1862	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.017804	-0.29%	0.010485	-41.28%	0.5274	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.017897	-0.60%	0.017855	-0.83%	0.0058	✓	1.00