BTW
Bitway · Ethereum · gru_s5
- token id
- #40
- symbol
- BTW
- variant
- –
- chain
- Ethereum
- address
- 0x3a63de3572c69a1307ff08394f3ee7702c16d25d
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-24
- predictions
- 150
Track record at +1d
assessed
49
of 50 predictions shown
direction hit
36.7%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.1146
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.0145
actual +0.0275
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 2.1044 | 2.0734 | -1.47% | – | pending | – | – | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 2.0432 | 2.0137 | -1.44% | 2.1044 | +3.00% | 0.0397 | ✗ | -1.48 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 1.9664 | 1.9385 | -1.42% | 2.0432 | +3.91% | 0.0727 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 2.4152 | 2.3705 | -1.85% | 1.9664 | -18.58% | 0.1901 | ✓ | -1.54 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 2.4383 | 2.3798 | -2.40% | 2.4152 | -0.95% | 0.0264 | ✗ | -1.53 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 1.9279 | 1.8924 | -1.84% | 2.4383 | +26.48% | 0.2513 | ✗ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 1.8166 | 1.7916 | -1.38% | 1.9279 | +6.12% | 0.0619 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 2.3803 | 2.3171 | -2.66% | 1.8166 | -23.68% | 0.2338 | ✓ | -1.40 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 2.0884 | 2.0298 | -2.81% | 2.3803 | +13.98% | 0.1347 | ✗ | -1.32 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 1.7495 | 1.7133 | -2.07% | 2.0884 | +19.36% | 0.2222 | ✗ | -1.47 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 1.6258 | 1.5946 | -1.91% | 1.7495 | +7.61% | 0.0587 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 1.5842 | 1.5568 | -1.73% | 1.6258 | +2.62% | 0.0568 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 1.5753 | 1.5457 | -1.87% | 1.5842 | +0.57% | 0.0310 | ✗ | -1.46 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 1.3928 | 1.3716 | -1.52% | 1.5753 | +13.10% | 0.1542 | ✗ | -1.52 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 1.2975 | 1.2785 | -1.47% | 1.3928 | +7.34% | 0.0569 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 1.2135 | 1.1976 | -1.31% | 1.2975 | +6.93% | 0.0399 | ✗ | -1.50 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 1.2336 | 1.216 | -1.43% | 1.2135 | -1.63% | 0.0057 | ✓ | -1.51 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 1.2458 | 1.2263 | -1.57% | 1.2336 | -0.98% | 0.0076 | ✓ | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 1.0377 | 1.0254 | -1.19% | 1.2458 | +20.05% | 0.2313 | ✗ | -1.77 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 1.3815 | 1.3587 | -1.65% | 1.0377 | -24.89% | 0.2646 | ✓ | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 1.4183 | 1.3934 | -1.75% | 1.3815 | -2.59% | 0.0158 | ✓ | -1.78 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 1.329 | 1.3061 | -1.72% | 1.4183 | +6.72% | 0.1105 | ✗ | -1.83 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 1.3887 | 1.3607 | -2.02% | 1.329 | -4.31% | 0.0254 | ✓ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 1.1192 | 1.1014 | -1.59% | 1.3887 | +24.08% | 0.2359 | ✗ | -1.85 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 1.2207 | 1.2002 | -1.68% | 1.1192 | -8.31% | 0.0936 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 1.0015 | 0.989343 | -1.22% | 1.2207 | +21.88% | 0.2112 | ✗ | -1.96 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 1.3154 | 1.276 | -2.99% | 1.0015 | -23.86% | 0.2348 | ✓ | -1.93 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.9544 | 0.940383 | -1.47% | 1.3154 | +37.82% | 0.3292 | ✗ | -1.82 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 1.0378 | 1.0151 | -2.19% | 0.9544 | -8.04% | 0.0615 | ✓ | -1.84 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.8978 | 0.884457 | -1.49% | 1.0378 | +15.59% | 0.1812 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.8007 | 0.788279 | -1.55% | 0.8978 | +12.13% | 0.1347 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.74705 | 0.734922 | -1.62% | 0.8007 | +7.18% | 0.0209 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.5903 | 0.585948 | -0.74% | 0.74705 | +26.55% | 0.2438 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.6302 | 0.625142 | -0.80% | 0.5903 | -6.33% | 0.0618 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.7199 | 0.711531 | -1.16% | 0.6302 | -12.46% | 0.1790 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.7502 | 0.738355 | -1.58% | 0.7199 | -4.04% | 0.0280 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.70505 | 0.693512 | -1.64% | 0.7502 | +6.40% | 0.0712 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.5826 | 0.576451 | -1.06% | 0.70505 | +21.02% | 0.2351 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.73445 | 0.712937 | -2.93% | 0.5826 | -20.68% | 0.2196 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.5503 | 0.544647 | -1.03% | 0.73445 | +33.46% | 0.3050 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.5088 | 0.505136 | -0.72% | 0.5503 | +8.16% | 0.0849 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.50005 | 0.495256 | -0.96% | 0.5088 | +1.75% | 0.0182 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.4511 | 0.449699 | -0.31% | 0.50005 | +10.85% | 0.1287 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.43775 | 0.43687 | -0.20% | 0.4511 | +3.05% | 0.0341 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.45105 | 0.449515 | -0.34% | 0.43775 | -2.95% | 0.0183 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.4474 | 0.446559 | -0.19% | 0.45105 | +0.82% | 0.0257 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.4522 | 0.450978 | -0.27% | 0.4474 | -1.06% | 0.0143 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.45655 | 0.454906 | -0.36% | 0.4522 | -0.95% | 0.0079 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.4544 | 0.452154 | -0.49% | 0.45655 | +0.47% | 0.0294 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.4896 | 0.485152 | -0.91% | 0.4544 | -7.19% | 0.1154 | ✓ | 1.00 |