AVL

Avalon · Ethereum · gru_s5

token id: #696
symbol: AVL
variant: –
chain: Ethereum
address: 0x5c8d0c48810fd37a0a824d074ee290e64f7a8fa2
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-27
predictions: 144

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +1d

assessed

of 48 predictions shown

direction hit

63.8%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0413

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0052

actual -0.0006

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.021245	0.021066	-0.84%	–	pending	–	–	1.17
2026-10-21	oos	0.021361	0.021177	-0.86%	0.021245	-0.54%	0.0005	✓	1.17
2026-10-20	oos	0.019693	0.01959	-0.52%	0.021361	+8.47%	0.0719	✗	1.13
2026-10-19	oos	0.020678	0.020509	-0.82%	0.019693	-4.77%	0.0562	✓	1.17
2026-10-18	oos	0.019445	0.019335	-0.57%	0.020678	+6.34%	0.0696	✗	1.18
2026-10-17	oos	0.020546	0.020415	-0.64%	0.019445	-5.36%	0.0579	✓	1.20
2026-10-16	oos	0.022173	0.021937	-1.07%	0.020546	-7.34%	0.0638	✓	1.19
2026-10-15	oos	0.020543	0.020334	-1.02%	0.022173	+7.93%	0.0960	✗	1.23
2026-10-14	oos	0.018647	0.018593	-0.29%	0.020543	+10.17%	0.0916	✗	1.20
2026-10-13	oos	0.019376	0.019316	-0.31%	0.018647	-3.76%	0.0130	✓	1.19
2026-10-12	oos	0.018817	0.01877	-0.25%	0.019376	+2.97%	0.0124	✗	1.17
2026-10-11	oos	0.020663	0.020571	-0.44%	0.018817	-8.93%	0.0635	✓	1.09
2026-10-10	oos	0.022471	0.022291	-0.80%	0.020663	-8.05%	0.0863	✓	1.14
2026-10-09	oos	0.019944	0.019868	-0.38%	0.022471	+12.67%	0.1182	✗	1.11
2026-10-08	oos	0.019933	0.019857	-0.38%	0.019944	+0.05%	0.0071	✓	1.11
2026-10-07	oos	0.022334	0.022209	-0.56%	0.019933	-10.75%	0.0888	✓	1.01
2026-10-06	oos	0.02175	0.021642	-0.50%	0.022334	+2.68%	0.0614	✗	1.11
2026-10-05	oos	0.022515	0.022387	-0.57%	0.02175	-3.40%	0.0261	✓	1.11
2026-10-04	oos	0.022884	0.02275	-0.59%	0.022515	-1.61%	0.0006	✓	1.11
2026-10-03	oos	0.022833	0.022692	-0.62%	0.022884	+0.22%	0.0148	✓	1.13
2026-10-02	oos	0.022786	0.02265	-0.60%	0.022833	+0.21%	0.0049	✓	1.13
2026-10-01	oos	0.022953	0.022835	-0.51%	0.022786	-0.73%	0.0024	✓	1.13
2026-09-30	oos	0.023642	0.023504	-0.58%	0.022953	-2.92%	0.0417	✓	1.17
2026-09-29	oos	0.022532	0.02242	-0.50%	0.023642	+4.93%	0.0542	✗	1.17
2026-09-28	oos	0.021848	0.021747	-0.46%	0.022532	+3.13%	0.0329	✗	1.17
2026-09-27	oos	0.024924	0.024759	-0.66%	0.021848	-12.34%	0.1123	✓	1.07
2026-09-26	oos	0.025513	0.025323	-0.75%	0.024924	-2.31%	0.0164	✓	1.07
2026-09-25	oos	0.024789	0.02461	-0.72%	0.025513	+2.92%	0.0322	✗	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.024097	0.023933	-0.68%	0.024789	+2.87%	0.0386	✗	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.023279	0.023133	-0.63%	0.024097	+3.51%	0.0408	✗	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.024603	0.024423	-0.73%	0.023279	-5.38%	0.0266	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.023323	0.023171	-0.65%	0.024603	+5.49%	0.0646	✗	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.021137	0.021002	-0.64%	0.023323	+10.34%	0.0400	✗	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.021371	0.021241	-0.61%	0.021137	-1.09%	0.0040	✓	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.0216	0.021474	-0.58%	0.021371	-1.06%	0.0092	✓	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.020413	0.020306	-0.52%	0.0216	+5.81%	0.0042	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.020576	0.020472	-0.51%	0.020413	-0.79%	0.0055	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.021305	0.021179	-0.59%	0.020576	-3.42%	0.0363	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.020442	0.02036	-0.40%	0.021305	+4.22%	0.0791	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.020262	0.020172	-0.45%	0.020442	+0.89%	0.0045	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.021569	0.021395	-0.81%	0.020262	-6.06%	0.0484	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.020448	0.020368	-0.39%	0.021569	+5.48%	0.0566	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.018637	0.018624	-0.07%	0.020448	+9.71%	0.0847	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.02012	0.020089	-0.16%	0.018637	-7.37%	0.0524	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.020503	0.020479	-0.12%	0.02012	-1.87%	0.0156	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.020774	0.02076	-0.07%	0.020503	-1.30%	0.0043	✓	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.020602	0.020604	+0.01%	0.020774	+0.83%	0.0239	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.020591	0.020589	-0.01%	0.020602	+0.05%	0.0057	✓	1.00