XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s4

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +7d

assessed

113

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

59.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1782

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0214

actual -0.0467

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004238	-2.83%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.00422	-2.77%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004245	-2.76%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.00418	-2.78%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004391	-2.87%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.00441	-2.96%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004441	-3.06%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004206	-3.08%	0.004362	+0.52%	0.0407	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004042	-2.96%	0.00434	+4.19%	0.0705	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.003995	-3.05%	0.004365	+5.95%	0.0890	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003902	-2.75%	0.0043	+7.15%	0.0957	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003929	-2.84%	0.004521	+11.81%	0.1403	✗	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003934	-2.89%	0.004544	+12.18%	0.1441	✗	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003807	-2.84%	0.004581	+16.92%	0.1854	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004022	-2.92%	0.004339	+4.75%	0.0737	✗	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004007	-2.75%	0.004166	+1.11%	0.0388	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003968	-2.68%	0.00412	+1.05%	0.0360	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.0043	-3.00%	0.004012	-9.48%	0.0735	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003719	-2.57%	0.004044	+5.94%	0.0793	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004801	-3.75%	0.004051	-18.79%	0.1745	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004831	-3.70%	0.003918	-21.90%	0.2159	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004824	-3.76%	0.004142	-17.37%	0.1542	✓	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004132	-3.18%	0.00412	-3.46%	0.0096	✓	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004387	-3.41%	0.004078	-10.21%	0.0586	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.00431	-3.25%	0.004432	-0.50%	0.0377	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004462	-3.35%	0.003817	-17.32%	0.1545	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004572	-3.31%	0.004988	+5.50%	0.0892	✗	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.004941	-3.42%	0.005017	-1.93%	0.0176	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004318	-2.65%	0.005013	+13.01%	0.1451	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004262	-2.12%	0.004268	-1.98%	0.0084	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004258	-1.81%	0.004541	+4.73%	0.0545	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004287	-1.96%	0.004455	+1.88%	0.0527	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.00448	-1.82%	0.004617	+1.17%	0.0442	✗	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004714	-1.67%	0.004728	-1.38%	0.0160	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005333	-2.13%	0.005116	-6.12%	0.0235	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004387	+0.99%	0.004436	+2.11%	0.0295	✓	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003941	+2.70%	0.004354	+13.47%	0.1557	✓	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003998	+3.20%	0.004336	+11.93%	0.1122	✓	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003794	+4.08%	0.004372	+19.94%	0.1552	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.003209	+5.00%	0.004563	+49.34%	0.3620	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.004021	+3.52%	0.004794	+23.43%	0.1853	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.004075	+2.69%	0.005449	+37.31%	0.2901	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004107	+2.44%	0.004344	+8.34%	0.0505	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.00496	+1.19%	0.003837	-21.71%	0.2650	✗	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004887	+1.08%	0.003874	-19.87%	0.2347	✗	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004813	+2.01%	0.003645	-22.73%	0.2866	✗	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004644	+2.52%	0.003056	-32.54%	0.4251	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004852	+2.28%	0.003884	-18.12%	0.2289	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005162	+1.89%	0.003968	-21.67%	0.2776	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005018	+0.04%	0.00401	-20.06%	0.2205	✗	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004997	+0.08%	0.004901	-1.83%	0.0152	✗	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004688	+0.40%	0.004835	+3.54%	0.0326	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005048	+0.03%	0.004718	-6.51%	0.0596	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005101	-0.06%	0.004529	-11.27%	0.1142	✓	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.00518	-0.37%	0.004744	-8.76%	0.0824	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.005383	-0.03%	0.005066	-5.91%	0.0574	✓	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005386	-0.58%	0.005016	-7.41%	0.0773	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005191	-0.77%	0.004993	-4.55%	0.0429	✓	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005233	-0.82%	0.004669	-11.50%	0.1155	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005121	-1.08%	0.005046	-2.52%	0.0149	✓	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005026	-1.19%	0.005104	+0.35%	0.0201	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004888	-0.79%	0.005199	+5.53%	0.0600	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005653	-2.19%	0.005385	-6.84%	0.0600	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005583	-2.89%	0.005417	-5.76%	0.0404	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.005634	-3.19%	0.005231	-10.11%	0.0917	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005698	-3.26%	0.005276	-10.42%	0.0951	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005791	-3.33%	0.005177	-13.58%	0.1327	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.00579	-3.39%	0.005087	-15.11%	0.1493	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005719	-3.33%	0.004926	-16.73%	0.1701	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005734	-3.30%	0.00578	-2.51%	0.0064	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005861	-3.41%	0.005749	-5.27%	0.0286	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006241	-3.60%	0.00582	-10.11%	0.0717	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006539	-3.81%	0.00589	-13.35%	0.1052	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006514	-3.95%	0.00599	-11.68%	0.0805	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.0062	-3.94%	0.005993	-7.16%	0.0308	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006658	-4.10%	0.005916	-14.78%	0.1147	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006784	-4.13%	0.005929	-16.21%	0.1332	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006993	-4.48%	0.006068	-17.10%	0.1397	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006288	-4.27%	0.006474	-1.44%	0.0294	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.006112	-4.25%	0.006798	+6.50%	0.1065	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005816	-4.17%	0.006782	+11.74%	0.1540	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005713	-4.08%	0.006455	+8.37%	0.1239	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.00576	-4.15%	0.006942	+15.52%	0.1885	✗	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.00571	-4.50%	0.007076	+18.34%	0.2145	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005762	-4.43%	0.00732	+21.41%	0.2395	✗	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005591	-4.49%	0.006568	+12.21%	0.1612	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005843	-4.54%	0.006383	+4.27%	0.0883	✗	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006025	-4.91%	0.00607	-4.21%	0.0061	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006011	-4.79%	0.005956	-5.66%	0.0113	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005975	-4.82%	0.006009	-4.27%	0.0039	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005893	-5.11%	0.005979	-3.72%	0.0143	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.0058	-5.42%	0.006029	-1.67%	0.0390	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005992	-5.74%	0.005854	-7.92%	0.0234	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005881	-5.90%	0.006121	-2.07%	0.0379	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005481	-5.52%	0.006336	+9.22%	0.1469	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005471	-5.69%	0.006314	+8.84%	0.1419	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005478	-5.52%	0.006277	+8.26%	0.1368	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005698	-5.69%	0.006211	+2.81%	0.0908	✗	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005729	-6.19%	0.006132	+0.41%	0.0723	✗	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006024	-6.60%	0.006357	-1.44%	0.0305	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005199	-4.43%	0.00625	+14.89%	0.1379	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.005545	-5.42%	0.005801	-1.05%	0.0306	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005203	-5.10%	0.005801	+5.80%	0.0928	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004785	-4.29%	0.005798	+15.97%	0.1957	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005294	-5.41%	0.006041	+7.93%	0.1226	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.004098	+0.40%	0.006107	+49.61%	0.3598	✓	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003914	+1.30%	0.00645	+66.95%	0.4736	✓	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003345	+3.25%	0.00544	+67.91%	0.5138	✓	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003388	+4.51%	0.005863	+80.84%	0.5459	✓	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.003158	+5.28%	0.005483	+82.76%	0.5407	✓	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.002446	+0.16%	0.005	+104.73%	0.6896	✓	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.00658	-0.68%	0.005597	-15.51%	0.1889	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007172	-0.23%	0.004082	-43.22%	0.6010	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.007004	+1.02%	0.003864	-44.27%	0.6737	✗	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007833	-1.01%	0.00324	-59.06%	0.9447	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.00866	-1.42%	0.003242	-63.10%	1.0494	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008852	-1.56%	0.003	-66.64%	1.1332	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.009025	-1.57%	0.002442	-73.37%	1.3482	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.009175	-1.48%	0.006625	-28.87%	0.3551	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010256	-1.87%	0.007189	-31.22%	0.3385	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.