XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s4

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 360

Track record at +1d

assessed

119

of 120 predictions shown

direction hit

55.5%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0604

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0030

actual -0.0077

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.004362	0.004345	-0.38%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004325	-0.35%	0.004362	+0.50%	0.0074	✗	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004351	-0.34%	0.00434	-0.57%	0.0022	✓	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.004286	-0.32%	0.004365	+1.53%	0.0177	✗	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.004505	-0.37%	0.0043	-4.90%	0.0443	✓	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004526	-0.41%	0.004521	-0.51%	0.0014	✓	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004559	-0.48%	0.004544	-0.80%	0.0056	✓	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004318	-0.48%	0.004581	+5.57%	0.0612	✗	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.004147	-0.46%	0.004339	+4.17%	0.0401	✗	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.0041	-0.49%	0.004166	+1.10%	0.0205	✗	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.003995	-0.44%	0.00412	+2.69%	0.0295	✗	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.004025	-0.47%	0.004012	-0.77%	0.0030	✓	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.004031	-0.49%	0.004044	-0.18%	0.0031	✓	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003902	-0.42%	0.004051	+3.39%	0.0380	✗	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.004123	-0.47%	0.003918	-5.42%	0.0531	✓	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.004103	-0.42%	0.004142	+0.54%	0.0095	✗	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.004063	-0.36%	0.00412	+1.04%	0.0139	✗	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.004413	-0.44%	0.004078	-8.01%	0.0802	✓	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.003807	-0.25%	0.004432	+16.13%	0.1562	✗	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004959	-0.58%	0.003817	-23.48%	0.2613	✓	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004987	-0.59%	0.004988	-0.58%	0.0005	✓	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.00498	-0.67%	0.005017	+0.08%	0.0158	✗	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004251	-0.40%	0.005013	+17.46%	0.1644	✗	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.00452	-0.47%	0.004268	-6.02%	0.0563	✓	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004436	-0.41%	0.004541	+1.95%	0.0186	✗	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004597	-0.43%	0.004455	-3.51%	0.0312	✓	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004708	-0.43%	0.004617	-2.36%	0.0179	✓	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.005084	-0.61%	0.004728	-7.58%	0.0742	✓	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004423	-0.30%	0.005116	+15.33%	0.1457	✗	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004346	-0.18%	0.004436	+1.88%	0.0135	✗	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004332	-0.10%	0.004354	+0.40%	0.0038	✗	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.00437	-0.05%	0.004336	-0.82%	0.0155	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004562	-0.04%	0.004372	-4.19%	0.0427	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004791	-0.08%	0.004563	-4.81%	0.0471	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.005415	-0.62%	0.004794	-12.02%	0.1114	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.00436	+0.36%	0.005449	+25.44%	0.2235	✓	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003866	+0.75%	0.004344	+13.22%	0.1198	✓	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003904	+0.77%	0.003837	-0.96%	0.0276	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003678	+0.91%	0.003874	+6.28%	0.0561	✓	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.00309	+1.14%	0.003645	+19.30%	0.1639	✓	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003916	+0.81%	0.003056	-21.33%	0.2479	✗	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.003995	+0.67%	0.003884	-2.12%	0.0264	✗	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004034	+0.62%	0.003968	-1.03%	0.0210	✗	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004916	+0.30%	0.00401	-18.19%	0.2043	✗	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004847	+0.26%	0.004901	+1.38%	0.0093	✓	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004739	+0.45%	0.004835	+2.48%	0.0170	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.004554	+0.55%	0.004718	+4.16%	0.0365	✓	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004767	+0.49%	0.004529	-4.52%	0.0508	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005086	+0.39%	0.004744	-6.37%	0.0746	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.00502	+0.08%	0.005066	+1.01%	0.0245	✓	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.004997	+0.09%	0.005016	+0.46%	0.0034	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004678	+0.18%	0.004993	+6.93%	0.0614	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.00505	+0.08%	0.004669	-7.47%	0.0757	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005107	+0.05%	0.005046	-1.14%	0.0137	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005198	-0.02%	0.005104	-1.82%	0.0169	✓	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.00538	-0.08%	0.005199	-3.45%	0.0426	✓	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005405	-0.23%	0.005385	-0.60%	0.0005	✓	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005217	-0.27%	0.005417	+3.57%	0.0395	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005257	-0.37%	0.005231	-0.86%	0.0065	✓	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005157	-0.38%	0.005276	+1.93%	0.0277	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.00507	-0.33%	0.005177	+1.76%	0.0235	✗	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004916	-0.21%	0.005087	+3.26%	0.0296	✗	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005754	-0.45%	0.004926	-14.77%	0.1636	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005721	-0.49%	0.00578	+0.54%	0.0062	✗	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.00579	-0.51%	0.005749	-1.22%	0.0134	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005859	-0.53%	0.00582	-1.20%	0.0070	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005956	-0.57%	0.00589	-1.66%	0.0136	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005958	-0.58%	0.00599	-0.04%	0.0057	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005884	-0.55%	0.005993	+1.29%	0.0183	✗	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005898	-0.52%	0.005916	-0.21%	0.0038	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.006037	-0.52%	0.005929	-2.30%	0.0180	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006435	-0.60%	0.006068	-6.27%	0.0585	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.00675	-0.71%	0.006474	-4.76%	0.0412	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006732	-0.73%	0.006798	+0.23%	0.0112	✗	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.006413	-0.64%	0.006782	+5.07%	0.0560	✗	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006889	-0.76%	0.006455	-7.02%	0.0652	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.00702	-0.80%	0.006942	-1.89%	0.0122	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.007243	-1.06%	0.007076	-3.33%	0.0227	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.006512	-0.86%	0.00732	+11.45%	0.1168	✗	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.00633	-0.83%	0.006568	+2.91%	0.0372	✗	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.006025	-0.73%	0.006383	+5.16%	0.0576	✗	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005917	-0.67%	0.00607	+1.90%	0.0262	✗	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005969	-0.68%	0.005956	-0.88%	0.0021	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005936	-0.73%	0.006009	+0.50%	0.0123	✗	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005988	-0.69%	0.005979	-0.82%	0.0012	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005816	-0.65%	0.006029	+3.00%	0.0361	✗	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.006081	-0.66%	0.005854	-4.37%	0.0381	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.006286	-0.79%	0.006121	-3.39%	0.0277	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.006266	-0.76%	0.006336	+0.36%	0.0126	✗	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.006228	-0.78%	0.006314	+0.58%	0.0139	✗	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.006158	-0.84%	0.006277	+1.07%	0.0183	✗	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.006077	-0.90%	0.006211	+1.29%	0.0219	✗	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.006287	-1.11%	0.006132	-3.54%	0.0250	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.006172	-1.25%	0.006357	+1.71%	0.0313	✗	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.005747	-0.94%	0.00625	+7.74%	0.0855	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.005745	-0.96%	0.005801	+0.01%	0.0094	✓	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.005746	-0.90%	0.005801	+0.04%	0.0127	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005984	-0.95%	0.005798	-4.02%	0.0310	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.006039	-1.12%	0.006041	-1.07%	0.0026	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.006349	-1.56%	0.006107	-5.32%	0.0347	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.005404	-0.67%	0.00645	+18.56%	0.1341	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.0058	-1.07%	0.00544	-7.20%	0.0406	✓	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.005427	-1.02%	0.005863	+6.93%	0.0778	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.004961	-0.79%	0.005483	+9.66%	0.1057	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.005489	-1.94%	0.005	-10.67%	0.1082	✓	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.004094	+0.31%	0.005597	+37.13%	0.2977	✓	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003884	+0.53%	0.004082	+5.64%	0.0669	✓	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.003274	+1.04%	0.003864	+19.25%	0.1763	✓	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.003284	+1.30%	0.00324	-0.06%	0.0200	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.003045	+1.49%	0.003242	+8.06%	0.0549	✓	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.002454	+0.47%	0.003	+22.84%	0.1920	✓	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.00662	-0.08%	0.002442	-63.13%	1.0138	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.007204	+0.21%	0.006625	-7.85%	0.1089	✗	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.00697	+0.53%	0.007189	+3.69%	0.0067	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007917	+0.05%	0.006933	-12.39%	0.1051	✗	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008779	-0.07%	0.007913	-9.92%	0.1153	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008984	-0.09%	0.008785	-2.31%	0.0147	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.009162	-0.08%	0.008992	-1.93%	0.0176	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.00931	-0.04%	0.009169	-1.55%	0.0202	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010437	-0.14%	0.009313	-10.90%	0.0927	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.