XEF

Xeffy · native · gru_s4

token id: #633
symbol: XEF
variant: –
chain: native
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-06-15
predictions: 363

Track record at +30d

assessed

91

of 121 predictions shown

direction hit

65.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2589

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0997

actual -0.0970

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.004312	0.004072	-5.56%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-21	oos	0.004312	0.004102	-4.87%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-20	oos	0.00434	0.004118	-5.13%	–	pending	–	–	-0.35
2026-10-19	oos	0.004365	0.004136	-5.25%	–	pending	–	–	-0.34
2026-10-18	oos	0.0043	0.00407	-5.34%	–	pending	–	–	-0.33
2026-10-17	oos	0.004521	0.00427	-5.57%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-16	oos	0.004544	0.004284	-5.73%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-15	oos	0.004581	0.004315	-5.82%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-14	oos	0.004339	0.004074	-6.12%	–	pending	–	–	-0.31
2026-10-13	oos	0.004166	0.003909	-6.17%	–	pending	–	–	-0.29
2026-10-12	oos	0.00412	0.00385	-6.57%	–	pending	–	–	-0.28
2026-10-11	oos	0.004012	0.00375	-6.54%	–	pending	–	–	-0.06
2026-10-10	oos	0.004044	0.003769	-6.79%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-09	oos	0.004051	0.003767	-7.01%	–	pending	–	–	-0.01
2026-10-08	oos	0.003918	0.003624	-7.50%	–	pending	–	–	-0.04
2026-10-07	oos	0.004142	0.003865	-6.71%	–	pending	–	–	-0.11
2026-10-06	oos	0.00412	0.003881	-5.81%	–	pending	–	–	-0.00
2026-10-05	oos	0.004078	0.003844	-5.74%	–	pending	–	–	-0.03
2026-10-04	oos	0.004432	0.00424	-4.35%	–	pending	–	–	-0.13
2026-10-03	oos	0.003817	0.00354	-7.26%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-02	oos	0.004988	0.004723	-5.32%	–	pending	–	–	-0.20
2026-10-01	oos	0.005017	0.004759	-5.14%	–	pending	–	–	-0.17
2026-09-30	oos	0.005013	0.004724	-5.77%	–	pending	–	–	-0.54
2026-09-29	oos	0.004268	0.004011	-6.01%	–	pending	–	–	-0.56
2026-09-28	oos	0.004541	0.004283	-5.69%	–	pending	–	–	-0.53
2026-09-27	oos	0.004455	0.004228	-5.08%	–	pending	–	–	-0.40
2026-09-26	oos	0.004617	0.004394	-4.83%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-25	oos	0.004728	0.004501	-4.80%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-24	oos	0.005116	0.00487	-4.80%	–	pending	–	–	-0.43
2026-09-23	oos	0.004436	0.004252	-4.14%	–	pending	–	–	-0.42
2026-09-22	oos	0.004354	0.004239	-2.65%	0.004312	-0.97%	0.0095	✓	-0.33
2026-09-21	oos	0.004336	0.004246	-2.08%	0.004312	-0.57%	0.0072	✓	-0.27
2026-09-20	oos	0.004372	0.004132	-5.50%	0.00434	-0.73%	0.0570	✗	-0.36
2026-09-19	oos	0.004563	0.004345	-4.78%	0.004365	-4.34%	0.0073	✓	-0.37
2026-09-18	oos	0.004794	0.004568	-4.73%	0.0043	-10.32%	0.0559	✓	-0.33
2026-09-17	oos	0.005449	0.00504	-7.52%	0.004521	-17.03%	0.0970	✓	-0.18
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.004187	-3.63%	0.004544	+4.61%	0.0942	✗	-0.18
2026-09-15	oos	0.003837	0.003734	-2.70%	0.004581	+19.39%	0.2399	✗	-0.43
2026-09-14	oos	0.003874	0.003867	-0.19%	0.004339	+12.01%	0.1282	✗	-0.30
2026-09-13	oos	0.003645	0.003639	-0.16%	0.004166	+14.28%	0.1540	✗	-0.24
2026-09-12	oos	0.003056	0.00304	-0.51%	0.00412	+34.84%	0.3150	✗	-0.19
2026-09-11	oos	0.003884	0.003903	+0.49%	0.004012	+3.30%	0.0438	✓	-0.20
2026-09-10	oos	0.003968	0.00397	+0.04%	0.004044	+1.89%	0.0345	✓	-0.20
2026-09-09	oos	0.00401	0.004032	+0.55%	0.004051	+1.04%	0.0155	✓	-0.20
2026-09-08	oos	0.004901	0.004862	-0.81%	0.003918	-20.06%	0.2067	✓	-0.22
2026-09-07	oos	0.004835	0.004792	-0.88%	0.004142	-14.32%	0.1345	✓	-0.22
2026-09-06	oos	0.004718	0.004704	-0.30%	0.00412	-12.67%	0.1201	✓	-0.20
2026-09-05	oos	0.004529	0.00456	+0.68%	0.004078	-9.97%	0.0973	✗	-0.20
2026-09-04	oos	0.004744	0.004798	+1.16%	0.004432	-6.56%	0.0626	✗	-0.20
2026-09-03	oos	0.005066	0.005152	+1.69%	0.003817	-24.66%	0.2897	✗	-0.24
2026-09-02	oos	0.005016	0.005053	+0.74%	0.004988	-0.55%	0.0143	✓	-0.30
2026-09-01	oos	0.004993	0.005067	+1.48%	0.005017	+0.48%	0.0180	✓	-0.30
2026-08-31	oos	0.004669	0.004753	+1.80%	0.005013	+7.36%	0.0690	✓	-0.26
2026-08-30	oos	0.005046	0.005135	+1.75%	0.004268	-15.43%	0.1674	✗	-0.24
2026-08-29	oos	0.005104	0.005196	+1.79%	0.004541	-11.03%	0.1194	✗	-0.24
2026-08-28	oos	0.005199	0.005284	+1.63%	0.004455	-14.32%	0.1515	✗	-0.24
2026-08-27	oos	0.005385	0.00554	+2.88%	0.004617	-14.26%	0.1687	✗	-0.27
2026-08-26	oos	0.005417	0.005516	+1.82%	0.004728	-12.72%	0.1370	✗	-0.28
2026-08-25	oos	0.005231	0.005287	+1.08%	0.005116	-2.20%	0.0125	✗	-0.28
2026-08-24	oos	0.005276	0.005346	+1.32%	0.004436	-15.93%	0.1680	✗	-0.28
2026-08-23	oos	0.005177	0.005182	+0.11%	0.004354	-15.89%	0.1429	✗	-0.30
2026-08-22	oos	0.005087	0.005045	-0.82%	0.004336	-14.75%	0.1150	✓	-0.31
2026-08-21	oos	0.004926	0.004902	-0.49%	0.004372	-11.25%	0.1045	✓	-0.28
2026-08-20	oos	0.00578	0.005601	-3.10%	0.004563	-21.05%	0.2175	✓	0.12
2026-08-19	oos	0.005749	0.005443	-5.32%	0.004794	-16.60%	0.1391	✓	0.08
2026-08-18	oos	0.00582	0.00545	-6.35%	0.005449	-6.36%	0.0152	✓	0.09
2026-08-17	oos	0.00589	0.005515	-6.37%	0.004344	-26.25%	0.2535	✓	0.09
2026-08-16	oos	0.00599	0.005589	-6.70%	0.003837	-35.94%	0.3939	✓	0.10
2026-08-15	oos	0.005993	0.005595	-6.64%	0.003874	-35.35%	0.3889	✓	0.10
2026-08-14	oos	0.005916	0.005546	-6.25%	0.003645	-38.39%	0.4387	✓	0.10
2026-08-13	oos	0.005929	0.005556	-6.28%	0.003056	-48.46%	0.6183	✓	0.10
2026-08-12	oos	0.006068	0.005687	-6.29%	0.003884	-35.99%	0.4016	✓	0.10
2026-08-11	oos	0.006474	0.006042	-6.68%	0.003968	-38.70%	0.4388	✓	0.10
2026-08-10	oos	0.006798	0.006311	-7.16%	0.00401	-41.02%	0.4710	✓	0.09
2026-08-09	oos	0.006782	0.006285	-7.33%	0.004901	-27.73%	0.2688	✓	0.11
2026-08-08	oos	0.006455	0.005989	-7.21%	0.004835	-25.10%	0.2356	✓	0.11
2026-08-07	oos	0.006942	0.006396	-7.87%	0.004718	-32.04%	0.3282	✓	0.11
2026-08-06	oos	0.007076	0.006497	-8.19%	0.004529	-35.99%	0.3858	✓	0.12
2026-08-05	oos	0.00732	0.006658	-9.05%	0.004744	-35.20%	0.3618	✓	0.11
2026-08-04	oos	0.006568	0.005998	-8.69%	0.005066	-22.87%	0.1735	✓	0.02
2026-08-03	oos	0.006383	0.005817	-8.87%	0.005016	-21.42%	0.1449	✓	-0.02
2026-08-02	oos	0.00607	0.005531	-8.88%	0.004993	-17.74%	0.0986	✓	-0.02
2026-08-01	oos	0.005956	0.005419	-9.01%	0.004669	-21.61%	0.1359	✓	-0.06
2026-07-31	oos	0.006009	0.005444	-9.41%	0.005046	-16.03%	0.0635	✓	-0.06
2026-07-30	oos	0.005979	0.005398	-9.73%	0.005104	-14.63%	0.0563	✓	0.00
2026-07-29	oos	0.006029	0.005444	-9.70%	0.005199	-13.77%	0.0434	✓	-0.01
2026-07-28	oos	0.005854	0.005283	-9.75%	0.005385	-8.01%	0.0239	✓	-0.02
2026-07-27	oos	0.006121	0.005508	-10.02%	0.005417	-11.50%	0.0135	✓	-0.01
2026-07-26	oos	0.006336	0.005653	-10.78%	0.005231	-17.44%	0.0696	✓	-0.04
2026-07-25	oos	0.006314	0.005605	-11.23%	0.005276	-16.43%	0.0428	✓	-0.09
2026-07-24	oos	0.006277	0.005539	-11.76%	0.005177	-17.53%	0.0490	✓	-0.10
2026-07-23	oos	0.006211	0.005454	-12.19%	0.005087	-18.09%	0.0610	✓	-0.05
2026-07-22	oos	0.006132	0.005361	-12.57%	0.004926	-19.66%	0.0855	✓	0.01
2026-07-21	oos	0.006357	0.005513	-13.27%	0.00578	-9.08%	0.0474	✓	-0.00
2026-07-20	oos	0.00625	0.005388	-13.79%	0.005749	-8.03%	0.0702	✓	-0.09
2026-07-19	oos	0.005801	0.00502	-13.47%	0.00582	+0.32%	0.1478	✗	-0.18
2026-07-18	oos	0.005801	0.004988	-14.02%	0.00589	+1.54%	0.1654	✗	-0.18
2026-07-17	oos	0.005798	0.00496	-14.46%	0.00599	+3.30%	0.1848	✗	-0.23
2026-07-16	oos	0.006041	0.005131	-15.07%	0.005993	-0.80%	0.1525	✓	-0.23
2026-07-15	oos	0.006107	0.005124	-16.09%	0.005916	-3.12%	0.1382	✓	-0.21
2026-07-14	oos	0.00645	0.00537	-16.75%	0.005929	-8.08%	0.1234	✓	1.00
2026-07-13	oos	0.00544	0.004567	-16.05%	0.006068	+11.55%	0.2660	✗	1.00
2026-07-12	oos	0.005863	0.004858	-17.14%	0.006474	+10.43%	0.2905	✗	1.00
2026-07-11	oos	0.005483	0.004458	-18.70%	0.006798	+23.98%	0.4198	✗	1.00
2026-07-10	oos	0.005	0.003991	-20.17%	0.006782	+35.64%	0.5190	✗	1.00
2026-07-09	oos	0.005597	0.004547	-18.76%	0.006455	+15.32%	0.3233	✗	1.00
2026-07-08	oos	0.004082	0.003346	-18.02%	0.006942	+70.08%	0.6881	✗	1.00
2026-07-07	oos	0.003864	0.003065	-20.67%	0.007076	+83.15%	0.8218	✗	1.00
2026-07-06	oos	0.00324	0.002005	-38.12%	0.00732	+125.94%	1.2857	✗	1.00
2026-07-05	oos	0.003242	0.001813	-44.08%	0.006568	+102.62%	1.2801	✗	1.00
2026-07-04	oos	0.003	0.001258	-58.06%	0.006383	+112.76%	1.6179	✗	1.00
2026-07-03	oos	0.002442	0.000708814	-70.98%	0.00607	+148.53%	2.1319	✗	1.00
2026-07-02	oos	0.006625	0.006287	-5.10%	0.005956	-10.09%	0.0746	✓	1.00
2026-07-01	oos	0.007189	0.006838	-4.88%	0.006009	-16.41%	0.1759	✓	1.00
2026-06-30	oos	0.006933	0.006601	-4.79%	0.005979	-13.75%	0.1995	✓	1.00
2026-06-29	oos	0.007913	0.007529	-4.86%	0.006029	-23.81%	0.2823	✓	1.00
2026-06-28	oos	0.008785	0.008413	-4.23%	0.005854	-33.37%	0.4336	✓	1.00
2026-06-27	oos	0.008992	0.008599	-4.37%	0.006121	-31.93%	0.4007	✓	1.00
2026-06-26	oos	0.009169	0.008767	-4.39%	0.006336	-30.90%	0.4100	✓	1.00
2026-06-25	oos	0.009313	0.008914	-4.29%	0.006314	-32.21%	0.4190	✓	1.00
2026-06-24	oos	0.010452	0.010022	-4.12%	0.006277	-39.94%	0.5174	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.