UMX

UMX · · gru_s4

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +7d

assessed

60

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

83.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0502

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0410

actual -0.0708

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.045779	-1.76%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042322	-1.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054152	-1.81%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.05446	-1.70%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.054903	-1.70%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058034	-1.79%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058014	-1.75%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.05834	-1.68%	0.0466	-21.47%	0.2287	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.058517	-1.52%	0.042915	-27.78%	0.3095	✓	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.059468	-1.58%	0.05515	-8.72%	0.0757	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.05941	-1.32%	0.055405	-7.97%	0.0627	✓	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059826	-1.39%	0.05585	-7.94%	0.0623	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060039	-1.49%	0.059095	-3.04%	0.0114	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.059424	-1.83%	0.059045	-2.45%	0.0082	✓	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.060489	-2.16%	0.05934	-4.02%	0.0118	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.060379	-2.17%	0.05942	-3.72%	0.0043	✓	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.060128	-2.53%	0.06042	-2.06%	0.0246	✓	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.06019	-2.46%	0.060205	-2.44%	0.0146	✓	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.059767	-2.65%	0.06067	-1.18%	0.0240	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.060018	-2.73%	0.060945	-1.22%	0.0251	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.059869	-2.62%	0.06053	-1.55%	0.0272	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.059558	-2.98%	0.061825	+0.71%	0.0388	✗	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.059354	-3.03%	0.061715	+0.83%	0.0295	✓	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.058757	-3.07%	0.06169	+1.77%	0.0371	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.058954	-2.94%	0.06171	+1.60%	0.0348	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.059167	-3.10%	0.061395	+0.55%	0.0352	✗	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.058967	-3.20%	0.0617	+1.29%	0.0431	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.059187	-3.24%	0.06148	+0.51%	0.0354	✗	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.05909	-3.40%	0.06139	+0.36%	0.0429	✗	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.058841	-3.12%	0.06121	+0.78%	0.0560	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.059278	-3.09%	0.060615	-0.91%	0.0432	✗	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.058798	-4.29%	0.06074	-1.13%	0.0106	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.057866	-4.29%	0.06106	+0.99%	0.0320	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.058637	-4.45%	0.060915	-0.74%	0.0160	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.058389	-4.52%	0.06117	+0.03%	0.0049	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.059183	-4.56%	0.06117	-1.35%	0.0200	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.058295	-4.21%	0.060735	-0.21%	0.0254	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.057957	-4.23%	0.06117	+1.07%	0.0133	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.058309	-4.06%	0.061435	+1.09%	0.0174	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.059889	-4.32%	0.06046	-3.41%	0.0230	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.062041	-4.62%	0.06137	-5.65%	0.0411	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.062172	-4.44%	0.06115	-6.01%	0.0150	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.061927	-4.52%	0.06201	-4.39%	0.0224	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.06333	-4.76%	0.06086	-8.47%	0.0108	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.064528	-5.20%	0.06052	-11.08%	0.0546	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.066141	-5.42%	0.060775	-13.09%	0.0448	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.067758	-5.73%	0.062595	-12.91%	0.0466	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.067957	-5.71%	0.065045	-9.75%	0.0123	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.068939	-5.73%	0.06506	-11.04%	0.0020	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.069886	-5.86%	0.06486	-12.63%	0.0872	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.06996	-5.94%	0.066495	-10.60%	0.0643	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.070391	-6.08%	0.068065	-9.19%	0.0403	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.07122	-6.03%	0.06993	-7.73%	0.0521	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.07071	-5.88%	0.071875	-4.33%	0.0039	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.071778	-5.96%	0.07207	-5.58%	0.0193	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.072193	-6.19%	0.07313	-4.98%	0.0006	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.076528	-6.87%	0.07424	-9.65%	0.0084	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.077667	-7.04%	0.07438	-10.98%	0.0288	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.081955	-7.61%	0.07495	-15.51%	0.0840	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.080488	-7.19%	0.07579	-12.60%	0.0593	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.080744	-6.88%	0.07513	-13.35%	0.0872	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.078575	-5.85%	0.07633	-8.54%	0.0228	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.078573	-5.06%	0.07696	-7.01%	0.1156	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.081033	-4.51%	0.08217	-3.17%	0.1174	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.083849	-1.30%	0.08355	-1.65%	0.1975	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.083663	-1.17%	0.08871	+4.80%	0.1443	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.084111	-0.41%	0.08672	+2.68%	0.1822	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.