UMX

UMX · · gru_s4

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 204

Track record at +1d

assessed

67

of 68 predictions shown

direction hit

62.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0235

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0068

actual -0.0142

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.041845	0.041661	-0.44%	–	pending	–	–	0.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.03934	0.03922	-0.30%	0.041845	+6.37%	0.0643	✗	0.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.042743	-0.40%	0.03934	-8.33%	0.0858	✓	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.054619	-0.96%	0.042915	-22.18%	0.2450	✓	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.055142	-0.47%	0.05515	-0.46%	0.0007	✓	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.055604	-0.44%	0.055405	-0.80%	0.0058	✓	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.058828	-0.45%	0.05585	-5.49%	0.0515	✓	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.058776	-0.46%	0.059095	+0.08%	0.0077	✗	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.059011	-0.55%	0.059045	-0.50%	0.0014	✓	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.059072	-0.59%	0.05934	-0.13%	0.0105	✗	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.060039	-0.63%	0.05942	-1.66%	0.0156	✓	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.059821	-0.64%	0.06042	+0.36%	0.0182	✗	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.060255	-0.68%	0.060205	-0.77%	0.0040	✓	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.060513	-0.71%	0.06067	-0.45%	0.0010	✓	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.060112	-0.69%	0.060945	+0.69%	0.0102	✗	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.061393	-0.70%	0.06053	-2.09%	0.0074	✓	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.061346	-0.60%	0.061825	+0.18%	0.0186	✗	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.061202	-0.79%	0.061715	+0.04%	0.0094	✗	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.061197	-0.83%	0.06169	-0.03%	0.0118	✗	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.060803	-0.96%	0.06171	+0.51%	0.0063	✓	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.061074	-1.01%	0.061395	-0.49%	0.0041	✓	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.06098	-0.81%	0.0617	+0.36%	0.0135	✗	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.060832	-0.91%	0.06148	+0.15%	0.0042	✓	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.060809	-0.65%	0.06139	+0.29%	0.0099	✗	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.060201	-0.68%	0.06121	+0.98%	0.0157	✗	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.060324	-0.69%	0.060615	-0.21%	0.0103	✗	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.060653	-0.67%	0.06074	-0.52%	0.0012	✓	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.060486	-0.70%	0.06106	+0.24%	0.0077	✗	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.06071	-0.75%	0.060915	-0.42%	0.0050	✓	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.06071	-0.75%	0.06117	+0.00%	0.0075	✓	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.060303	-0.71%	0.06117	+0.72%	0.0260	✗	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.060728	-0.72%	0.060735	-0.71%	0.0027	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.061036	-0.65%	0.06117	-0.43%	0.0334	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.060122	-0.56%	0.061435	+1.61%	0.0221	✗	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.061053	-0.52%	0.06046	-1.48%	0.0123	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.060907	-0.40%	0.06137	+0.36%	0.0221	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.061758	-0.41%	0.06115	-1.39%	0.0113	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.060692	-0.28%	0.06201	+1.89%	0.0178	✗	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.060387	-0.22%	0.06086	+0.56%	0.0300	✗	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.060671	-0.17%	0.06052	-0.42%	0.0137	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.062456	-0.22%	0.060775	-2.91%	0.0234	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.064848	-0.30%	0.062595	-3.77%	0.0358	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.064869	-0.29%	0.065045	-0.02%	0.0029	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.064665	-0.30%	0.06506	+0.31%	0.0233	✗	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.066254	-0.36%	0.06486	-2.46%	0.0196	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.067762	-0.44%	0.066495	-2.31%	0.0122	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.069586	-0.49%	0.068065	-2.67%	0.0083	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.071531	-0.48%	0.06993	-2.71%	0.0290	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.071754	-0.44%	0.071875	-0.27%	0.0003	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.072833	-0.41%	0.07207	-1.45%	0.0092	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.074013	-0.31%	0.07313	-1.50%	0.0619	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.074157	-0.30%	0.07424	-0.19%	0.0023	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.074674	-0.37%	0.07438	-0.76%	0.0110	✗	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.075465	-0.43%	0.07495	-1.11%	0.0183	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.07474	-0.52%	0.07579	+0.88%	0.0212	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.075856	-0.62%	0.07513	-1.57%	0.0147	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.076367	-0.77%	0.07633	-0.82%	0.0303	✗	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.08153	-0.78%	0.07696	-6.34%	0.0734	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.082839	-0.85%	0.08217	-1.65%	0.0145	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.087941	-0.87%	0.08355	-5.82%	0.0455	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.085835	-1.02%	0.08871	+2.29%	0.0170	✗	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.085696	-1.17%	0.08672	+0.01%	0.0032	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.082175	-1.54%	0.08671	+3.89%	0.0701	✗	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.081308	-1.75%	0.08346	+0.85%	0.0441	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.08347	-1.64%	0.08276	-2.47%	0.0607	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.083746	-1.42%	0.08486	-0.11%	0.0558	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.083255	-1.65%	0.08495	+0.35%	0.0170	✗	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.083045	-1.67%	0.08465	+0.22%	0.0066	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.