UMX

UMX · · gru_s4

token id: #759
symbol: UMX
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-07
predictions: 201

Track record at +30d

assessed

37

of 67 predictions shown

direction hit

100.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.1334

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.1484

actual -0.2589

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.0466	0.04491	-3.63%	–	pending	–	–	0.19
2026-10-20	oos	0.042915	0.041779	-2.65%	–	pending	–	–	0.22
2026-10-19	oos	0.05515	0.053314	-3.33%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-18	oos	0.055405	0.05339	-3.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-17	oos	0.05585	0.053759	-3.74%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-16	oos	0.059095	0.056745	-3.98%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-15	oos	0.059045	0.05679	-3.82%	–	pending	–	–	0.30
2026-10-14	oos	0.05934	0.057156	-3.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.29
2026-10-13	oos	0.05942	0.057723	-2.86%	–	pending	–	–	0.32
2026-10-12	oos	0.06042	0.058424	-3.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.31
2026-10-11	oos	0.060205	0.058936	-2.11%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-10	oos	0.06067	0.059139	-2.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-09	oos	0.060945	0.05914	-2.96%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-08	oos	0.06053	0.05789	-4.36%	–	pending	–	–	0.34
2026-10-07	oos	0.061825	0.058599	-5.22%	–	pending	–	–	0.35
2026-10-06	oos	0.061715	0.058544	-5.14%	–	pending	–	–	0.40
2026-10-05	oos	0.06169	0.057885	-6.17%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-04	oos	0.06171	0.058104	-5.84%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-10-03	oos	0.061395	0.057391	-6.52%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-02	oos	0.0617	0.057604	-6.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.06148	0.057556	-6.38%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-30	oos	0.06139	0.056919	-7.28%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-29	oos	0.06121	0.056616	-7.51%	–	pending	–	–	0.42
2026-09-28	oos	0.060615	0.056039	-7.55%	–	pending	–	–	0.43
2026-09-27	oos	0.06074	0.056485	-7.00%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-26	oos	0.06106	0.056533	-7.41%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-25	oos	0.060915	0.056237	-7.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.46
2026-09-24	oos	0.06117	0.056473	-7.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-23	oos	0.06117	0.056282	-7.99%	–	pending	–	–	0.48
2026-09-22	oos	0.060735	0.056503	-6.97%	–	pending	–	–	0.55
2026-09-21	oos	0.06117	0.057035	-6.76%	0.0466	-23.82%	0.1760	✓	0.56
2026-09-20	oos	0.061435	0.05495	-10.56%	0.042915	-30.15%	0.2591	✓	0.55
2026-09-19	oos	0.06046	0.054072	-10.57%	0.05515	-8.78%	0.0155	✓	0.57
2026-09-18	oos	0.06137	0.054599	-11.03%	0.055405	-9.72%	0.0068	✓	0.57
2026-09-17	oos	0.06115	0.053751	-12.10%	0.05585	-8.67%	0.0055	✓	0.51
2026-09-16	oos	0.06201	0.054346	-12.36%	0.059095	-4.70%	0.0487	✓	0.52
2026-09-15	oos	0.06086	0.053535	-12.04%	0.059045	-2.98%	0.0560	✓	0.51
2026-09-14	oos	0.06052	0.053396	-11.77%	0.05934	-1.95%	0.0776	✓	0.66
2026-09-13	oos	0.060775	0.053485	-12.00%	0.05942	-2.23%	0.0555	✓	0.63
2026-09-12	oos	0.062595	0.054753	-12.53%	0.06042	-3.47%	0.0620	✓	0.65
2026-09-11	oos	0.065045	0.05648	-13.17%	0.060205	-7.44%	0.0114	✓	0.65
2026-09-10	oos	0.06506	0.05647	-13.20%	0.06067	-6.75%	0.0205	✓	0.64
2026-09-09	oos	0.06486	0.056453	-12.96%	0.060945	-6.04%	0.0362	✓	0.76
2026-09-08	oos	0.066495	0.057637	-13.32%	0.06053	-8.97%	0.0174	✓	0.78
2026-09-07	oos	0.068065	0.058715	-13.74%	0.061825	-9.17%	0.0095	✓	0.82
2026-09-06	oos	0.06993	0.060383	-13.65%	0.061715	-11.75%	0.0336	✓	0.88
2026-09-05	oos	0.071875	0.061638	-14.24%	0.06169	-14.17%	0.0707	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07207	0.061751	-14.32%	0.06171	-14.37%	0.0829	✓	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07313	0.063172	-13.62%	0.061395	-16.05%	0.0704	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07424	0.06273	-15.50%	0.0617	-16.89%	0.1056	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.07438	0.062783	-15.59%	0.06148	-17.34%	0.1129	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.07495	0.06353	-15.24%	0.06139	-18.09%	0.0959	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07579	0.063993	-15.57%	0.06121	-19.24%	0.1186	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07513	0.06376	-15.13%	0.060615	-19.32%	0.1152	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07633	0.064513	-15.48%	0.06074	-20.42%	0.1419	✓	1.00
2026-08-27	oos	0.07696	0.065486	-14.91%	0.06106	-20.66%	0.1203	✓	1.00
2026-08-26	oos	0.08217	0.068691	-16.40%	0.060915	-25.87%	0.1823	✓	1.00
2026-08-25	oos	0.08355	0.069412	-16.92%	0.06117	-26.79%	0.1984	✓	1.00
2026-08-24	oos	0.08871	0.073303	-17.37%	0.06117	-31.04%	0.2470	✓	1.00
2026-08-23	oos	0.08672	0.071737	-17.28%	0.060735	-29.96%	0.2699	✓	1.00
2026-08-22	oos	0.08671	0.07198	-16.99%	0.06117	-29.45%	0.2795	✓	1.00
2026-08-21	oos	0.08346	0.070872	-15.08%	0.061435	-26.39%	0.1784	✓	1.00
2026-08-20	oos	0.08276	0.069687	-15.80%	0.06046	-26.95%	0.2487	✓	1.00
2026-08-19	oos	0.08486	0.071251	-16.04%	0.06137	-27.68%	0.3038	✓	1.00
2026-08-18	oos	0.08495	0.074343	-12.49%	0.06115	-28.02%	0.3612	✓	1.00
2026-08-17	oos	0.08465	0.074349	-12.17%	0.06201	-26.75%	0.3478	✓	1.00
2026-08-16	oos	0.08446	0.074988	-11.21%	0.06086	-27.94%	0.3935	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.