SWM

Swarm · · gru_s4

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +7d

assessed

48

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

66.7%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.2523

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0553

actual +0.0240

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.09181	0.089256	-2.78%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.088904	-2.78%	–	pending	–	–	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.089518	-2.63%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.090962	-2.81%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.090954	-2.84%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.092059	-3.14%	–	pending	–	–	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.085677	-3.40%	–	pending	–	–	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.086618	-3.62%	0.09181	+2.15%	0.0796	✗	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.099047	-4.40%	0.091445	-11.74%	0.0832	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.096793	-4.14%	0.09194	-8.95%	0.0494	✓	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.095699	-4.52%	0.093595	-6.62%	0.0575	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.09565	-4.41%	0.09361	-6.45%	0.0542	✓	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.094641	-4.30%	0.09504	-3.89%	0.0181	✓	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.094849	-4.21%	0.08869	-10.43%	0.0579	✓	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.092157	-4.37%	0.089875	-6.73%	0.0615	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.093416	-5.03%	0.10361	+5.33%	0.0506	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.081173	-3.90%	0.100975	+19.55%	0.1329	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.088411	-4.79%	0.10023	+7.94%	0.0642	✗	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.086976	-4.21%	0.100065	+10.21%	0.0988	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.089444	-4.52%	0.09889	+5.56%	0.0560	✗	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.090289	-5.10%	0.099015	+4.07%	0.0203	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.101724	-5.97%	0.096365	-10.92%	0.0604	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.117782	-7.07%	0.098365	-22.39%	0.1376	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.114407	-7.39%	0.084465	-31.63%	0.2523	✓	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.144962	-8.36%	0.092855	-41.30%	0.3955	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.118995	-6.97%	0.090795	-29.01%	0.2626	✓	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.099455	-5.66%	0.09368	-11.14%	0.0499	✓	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.09834	-5.45%	0.095145	-8.52%	0.0219	✓	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.098362	-5.31%	0.10818	+4.14%	0.0754	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.090211	-4.86%	0.12674	+33.67%	0.2814	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.097557	-5.14%	0.123535	+20.12%	0.1629	✗	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.10759	-4.89%	0.15819	+39.84%	0.4706	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.112655	-5.26%	0.127905	+7.56%	0.2095	✗	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.113005	-5.51%	0.10542	-11.86%	0.0143	✓	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.121313	-6.18%	0.10401	-19.57%	0.2540	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.129637	-7.69%	0.10388	-26.03%	0.3242	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.115357	-11.14%	0.094815	-26.96%	0.3275	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.136289	-12.48%	0.10284	-33.96%	0.3839	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.134869	-13.89%	0.11312	-27.77%	0.2311	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.164053	-11.59%	0.11891	-35.91%	0.3719	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.176038	-10.23%	0.1196	-39.01%	0.4329	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.168359	-9.44%	0.12931	-30.44%	0.2614	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.125052	-8.52%	0.14044	+2.74%	0.1438	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.126615	-7.69%	0.129815	-5.36%	0.0621	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.109194	-7.06%	0.15573	+32.55%	0.3667	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.096454	-6.28%	0.156615	+52.18%	0.5298	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.074455	-3.28%	0.18555	+141.04%	0.9458	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.073698	-2.57%	0.196105	+159.26%	1.0101	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.072218	-1.46%	0.18591	+153.66%	1.0055	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.070318	+0.28%	0.1367	+94.95%	0.6522	✓	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.070328	+0.79%	0.13717	+96.57%	0.6546	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.07034	+1.27%	0.117485	+69.14%	0.5063	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.072125	+0.96%	0.102915	+44.06%	0.3217	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.072233	+0.80%	0.07698	+7.42%	0.0434	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.074168	-0.62%	0.07564	+1.35%	0.0037	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.