SWM

Swarm · · gru_s4

token id: #257
symbol: SWM
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +1d

assessed

54

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

50.0%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0737

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0109

actual +0.0042

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.09181	0.091439	-0.40%	–	pending	–	–	-1.57
2026-10-20	oos	0.091445	0.091082	-0.40%	0.09181	+0.40%	0.0034	✓	-1.56
2026-10-19	oos	0.09194	0.091599	-0.37%	0.091445	-0.54%	0.0193	✗	-1.57
2026-10-18	oos	0.093595	0.093208	-0.41%	0.09194	-1.77%	0.0170	✓	-1.58
2026-10-17	oos	0.09361	0.093211	-0.43%	0.093595	-0.02%	0.0162	✗	-1.58
2026-10-16	oos	0.09504	0.094573	-0.49%	0.09361	-1.50%	0.0125	✓	-1.58
2026-10-15	oos	0.08869	0.088253	-0.49%	0.09504	+7.16%	0.0623	✗	-1.55
2026-10-14	oos	0.089875	0.089407	-0.52%	0.08869	-1.32%	0.0025	✓	-1.55
2026-10-13	oos	0.10361	0.102832	-0.75%	0.089875	-13.26%	0.1662	✓	-1.69
2026-10-12	oos	0.100975	0.100281	-0.69%	0.10361	+2.61%	0.0611	✗	-1.72
2026-10-11	oos	0.10023	0.09945	-0.78%	0.100975	+0.74%	0.0257	✓	-1.75
2026-10-10	oos	0.100065	0.099275	-0.79%	0.10023	+0.16%	0.0257	✗	-1.75
2026-10-09	oos	0.09889	0.098128	-0.77%	0.100065	+1.19%	0.0273	✗	-1.75
2026-10-08	oos	0.099015	0.098225	-0.80%	0.09889	-0.13%	0.0250	✗	-1.76
2026-10-07	oos	0.096365	0.095523	-0.87%	0.099015	+2.75%	0.0022	✓	-1.76
2026-10-06	oos	0.098365	0.097229	-1.15%	0.096365	-2.03%	0.0581	✓	-1.83
2026-10-05	oos	0.084465	0.083866	-0.71%	0.098365	+16.46%	0.1551	✗	-1.78
2026-10-04	oos	0.092855	0.091905	-1.02%	0.084465	-9.04%	0.1006	✓	-1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.090795	0.090058	-0.81%	0.092855	+2.27%	0.0696	✗	-1.89
2026-10-02	oos	0.09368	0.09287	-0.86%	0.090795	-3.08%	0.0173	✓	-1.89
2026-10-01	oos	0.095145	0.094294	-0.89%	0.09368	-1.54%	0.0142	✓	-1.90
2026-09-30	oos	0.10818	0.107015	-1.08%	0.095145	-12.05%	0.0891	✓	-1.86
2026-09-29	oos	0.12674	0.124968	-1.40%	0.10818	-14.64%	0.1461	✓	-1.89
2026-09-28	oos	0.123535	0.121739	-1.45%	0.12674	+2.59%	0.0444	✗	-1.89
2026-09-27	oos	0.15819	0.154672	-2.22%	0.123535	-21.91%	0.2498	✓	-2.09
2026-09-26	oos	0.127905	0.125577	-1.82%	0.15819	+23.68%	0.2320	✗	-2.04
2026-09-25	oos	0.10542	0.103955	-1.39%	0.127905	+21.33%	0.2151	✗	-2.03
2026-09-24	oos	0.10401	0.102582	-1.37%	0.10542	+1.36%	0.0203	✗	-2.02
2026-09-23	oos	0.10388	0.102423	-1.40%	0.10401	+0.13%	0.0155	✗	-2.02
2026-09-22	oos	0.094815	0.09371	-1.17%	0.10388	+9.56%	0.0616	✗	-1.94
2026-09-21	oos	0.10284	0.101529	-1.27%	0.094815	-7.80%	0.0775	✓	-1.98
2026-09-20	oos	0.11312	0.111751	-1.21%	0.10284	-9.09%	0.0552	✗	-2.13
2026-09-19	oos	0.11891	0.117326	-1.33%	0.11312	-4.87%	0.0385	✓	-2.15
2026-09-18	oos	0.1196	0.118071	-1.28%	0.11891	-0.58%	0.0166	✗	-2.15
2026-09-17	oos	0.12931	0.127551	-1.36%	0.1196	-7.51%	0.1220	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.14044	0.138119	-1.65%	0.12931	-7.93%	0.0686	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.129815	0.126896	-2.25%	0.14044	+8.18%	0.0940	✗	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.15573	0.151855	-2.49%	0.129815	-16.64%	0.1231	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.156615	0.152289	-2.76%	0.15573	-0.57%	0.0046	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.18555	0.181255	-2.31%	0.156615	-15.59%	0.1401	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.196105	0.191852	-2.17%	0.18555	-5.38%	0.0341	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.18591	0.181693	-2.27%	0.196105	+5.48%	0.0676	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.1367	0.134336	-1.73%	0.18591	+36.00%	0.3475	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.13717	0.134811	-1.72%	0.1367	-0.34%	0.0160	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.117485	0.11546	-1.72%	0.13717	+16.76%	0.1805	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.102915	0.10125	-1.62%	0.117485	+14.16%	0.1644	✗	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.07698	0.076522	-0.60%	0.102915	+33.69%	0.2900	✗	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.07564	0.075261	-0.50%	0.07698	+1.77%	0.0206	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.07329	0.073125	-0.23%	0.07564	+3.21%	0.0536	✗	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07012	0.070206	+0.12%	0.07329	+4.52%	0.0069	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.06978	0.069877	+0.14%	0.07012	+0.49%	0.0047	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.06946	0.069581	+0.17%	0.06978	+0.46%	0.0178	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.07144	0.071419	-0.03%	0.06946	-2.77%	0.0393	✓	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.07166	0.0715	-0.22%	0.07144	-0.31%	0.0065	✗	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.07463	0.07392	-0.95%	0.07166	-3.98%	0.0361	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.