SWM
Swarm · · gru_s4
- token id
- #257
- symbol
- SWM
- variant
- –
- chain
- address
- cohort
- datapoint (mid-window listing)
- first bar
- 2026-08-19
- predictions
- 168
Track record at +30d
assessed
26
of 56 predictions shown
direction hit
65.4%
alpha space; 50% is a coin flip
MAE (alpha)
0.2876
mean absolute log-return error
mean pred / actual
-0.1886
actual -0.1438
History
| as of | split | anchor px | pred px | pred Δ | actual px | actual Δ | alpha err | hit | β90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | oos | 0.090935 | 0.07875 | -13.40% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-21 | oos | 0.090825 | 0.079186 | -12.81% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-20 | oos | 0.091445 | 0.079911 | -12.61% | – | pending | – | – | -1.56 |
| 2026-10-19 | oos | 0.09194 | 0.080394 | -12.56% | – | pending | – | – | -1.57 |
| 2026-10-18 | oos | 0.093595 | 0.081574 | -12.84% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-17 | oos | 0.09361 | 0.081444 | -13.00% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-16 | oos | 0.09504 | 0.082498 | -13.20% | – | pending | – | – | -1.58 |
| 2026-10-15 | oos | 0.08869 | 0.077581 | -12.53% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-14 | oos | 0.089875 | 0.078609 | -12.53% | – | pending | – | – | -1.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | oos | 0.10361 | 0.088721 | -14.37% | – | pending | – | – | -1.69 |
| 2026-10-12 | oos | 0.100975 | 0.087068 | -13.77% | – | pending | – | – | -1.72 |
| 2026-10-11 | oos | 0.10023 | 0.086298 | -13.90% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-10 | oos | 0.100065 | 0.086256 | -13.80% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | oos | 0.09889 | 0.085613 | -13.43% | – | pending | – | – | -1.75 |
| 2026-10-08 | oos | 0.099015 | 0.085834 | -13.31% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-07 | oos | 0.096365 | 0.083504 | -13.35% | – | pending | – | – | -1.76 |
| 2026-10-06 | oos | 0.098365 | 0.084608 | -13.99% | – | pending | – | – | -1.83 |
| 2026-10-05 | oos | 0.084465 | 0.073508 | -12.97% | – | pending | – | – | -1.78 |
| 2026-10-04 | oos | 0.092855 | 0.07949 | -14.39% | – | pending | – | – | -1.84 |
| 2026-10-03 | oos | 0.090795 | 0.078017 | -14.07% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-02 | oos | 0.09368 | 0.079855 | -14.76% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-10-01 | oos | 0.095145 | 0.080415 | -15.48% | – | pending | – | – | -1.90 |
| 2026-09-30 | oos | 0.10818 | 0.091659 | -15.27% | – | pending | – | – | -1.86 |
| 2026-09-29 | oos | 0.12674 | 0.107445 | -15.22% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-28 | oos | 0.123535 | 0.104426 | -15.47% | – | pending | – | – | -1.89 |
| 2026-09-27 | oos | 0.15819 | 0.133495 | -15.61% | – | pending | – | – | -2.09 |
| 2026-09-26 | oos | 0.127905 | 0.108113 | -15.47% | – | pending | – | – | -2.04 |
| 2026-09-25 | oos | 0.10542 | 0.088036 | -16.49% | – | pending | – | – | -2.03 |
| 2026-09-24 | oos | 0.10401 | 0.085921 | -17.39% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-23 | oos | 0.10388 | 0.084799 | -18.37% | – | pending | – | – | -2.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | oos | 0.094815 | 0.07401 | -21.94% | 0.090935 | -4.09% | 0.1608 | ✓ | -1.94 |
| 2026-09-21 | oos | 0.10284 | 0.080379 | -21.84% | 0.090825 | -11.68% | 0.0624 | ✓ | -1.98 |
| 2026-09-20 | oos | 0.11312 | 0.091813 | -18.84% | 0.091445 | -19.16% | 0.0422 | ✓ | -2.13 |
| 2026-09-19 | oos | 0.11891 | 0.096205 | -19.09% | 0.09194 | -22.68% | 0.0294 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-18 | oos | 0.1196 | 0.096093 | -19.65% | 0.093595 | -21.74% | 0.0035 | ✓ | -2.15 |
| 2026-09-17 | oos | 0.12931 | 0.105146 | -18.69% | 0.09361 | -27.61% | 0.1801 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-16 | oos | 0.14044 | 0.113863 | -18.92% | 0.09504 | -32.33% | 0.2487 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | oos | 0.129815 | 0.104584 | -19.44% | 0.08869 | -31.68% | 0.2478 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | oos | 0.15573 | 0.126143 | -19.00% | 0.089875 | -42.29% | 0.3815 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-13 | oos | 0.156615 | 0.126177 | -19.44% | 0.10361 | -33.84% | 0.2759 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-12 | oos | 0.18555 | 0.147472 | -20.52% | 0.100975 | -45.58% | 0.4351 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | oos | 0.196105 | 0.153894 | -21.52% | 0.10023 | -48.89% | 0.5093 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | oos | 0.18591 | 0.144786 | -22.12% | 0.100065 | -46.18% | 0.4494 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-09 | oos | 0.1367 | 0.111957 | -18.10% | 0.09889 | -27.66% | 0.1771 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-08 | oos | 0.13717 | 0.112081 | -18.29% | 0.099015 | -27.82% | 0.1645 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-07 | oos | 0.117485 | 0.096943 | -17.49% | 0.096365 | -17.98% | 0.0575 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-06 | oos | 0.102915 | 0.086724 | -15.73% | 0.098365 | -4.42% | 0.0632 | ✓ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-05 | oos | 0.07698 | 0.066855 | -13.15% | 0.084465 | +9.72% | 0.1623 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | oos | 0.07564 | 0.066589 | -11.97% | 0.092855 | +22.76% | 0.2502 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-03 | oos | 0.07329 | 0.065186 | -11.06% | 0.090795 | +23.88% | 0.2894 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-02 | oos | 0.07012 | 0.063029 | -10.11% | 0.09368 | +33.60% | 0.3073 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-09-01 | oos | 0.06978 | 0.062801 | -10.00% | 0.095145 | +36.35% | 0.3235 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-31 | oos | 0.06946 | 0.061802 | -11.03% | 0.10818 | +55.74% | 0.4982 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-30 | oos | 0.07144 | 0.062369 | -12.70% | 0.12674 | +77.41% | 0.6350 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-29 | oos | 0.07166 | 0.060413 | -15.69% | 0.123535 | +72.39% | 0.6507 | ✗ | 1.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | oos | 0.07463 | 0.06089 | -18.41% | 0.15819 | +111.97% | 0.8731 | ✗ | 1.00 |