NIULAI

? · · gru_s4

token id: #227
symbol: NIULAI
variant: –
chain
address
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-19
predictions: 165

Track record at +1d

assessed

54

of 55 predictions shown

direction hit

59.3%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.0927

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0076

actual +0.0006

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-21	oos	0.06254	0.062539	-0.00%	–	pending	–	–	1.55
2026-10-20	oos	0.0625	0.062479	-0.03%	0.06254	+0.06%	0.0055	✗	1.55
2026-10-19	oos	0.05795	0.058057	+0.18%	0.0625	+7.85%	0.0533	✓	1.53
2026-10-18	oos	0.058765	0.058881	+0.20%	0.05795	-1.39%	0.0128	✗	1.53
2026-10-17	oos	0.059455	0.059606	+0.25%	0.058765	-1.16%	0.0259	✗	1.53
2026-10-16	oos	0.065015	0.065062	+0.07%	0.059455	-8.55%	0.0879	✗	1.52
2026-10-15	oos	0.06738	0.06738	-0.00%	0.065015	-3.51%	0.0242	✓	1.51
2026-10-14	oos	0.06963	0.069616	-0.02%	0.06738	-3.23%	0.0430	✓	1.51
2026-10-13	oos	0.07463	0.074461	-0.23%	0.06963	-6.70%	0.0396	✓	1.48
2026-10-12	oos	0.07206	0.072051	-0.01%	0.07463	+3.57%	0.0109	✗	1.47
2026-10-11	oos	0.07927	0.07899	-0.35%	0.07206	-9.10%	0.0590	✓	1.40
2026-10-10	oos	0.080075	0.079766	-0.39%	0.07927	-1.01%	0.0192	✓	1.41
2026-10-09	oos	0.07419	0.074197	+0.01%	0.080075	+7.93%	0.0700	✓	1.41
2026-10-08	oos	0.0731	0.073222	+0.17%	0.07419	+1.49%	0.0015	✓	1.41
2026-10-07	oos	0.071685	0.071875	+0.27%	0.0731	+1.97%	0.0446	✓	1.44
2026-10-06	oos	0.079075	0.078845	-0.29%	0.071685	-9.35%	0.0588	✓	1.36
2026-10-05	oos	0.0768	0.076716	-0.11%	0.079075	+2.96%	0.0336	✗	1.36
2026-10-04	oos	0.08235	0.082008	-0.41%	0.0768	-6.74%	0.0540	✓	1.32
2026-10-03	oos	0.08011	0.080028	-0.10%	0.08235	+2.80%	0.0012	✗	1.33
2026-10-02	oos	0.08755	0.087258	-0.33%	0.08011	-8.50%	0.0892	✓	1.32
2026-10-01	oos	0.09927	0.098673	-0.60%	0.08755	-11.81%	0.1144	✓	1.27
2026-09-30	oos	0.104825	0.104143	-0.65%	0.09927	-5.30%	0.0681	✓	1.32
2026-09-29	oos	0.10513	0.10444	-0.66%	0.104825	-0.29%	0.0050	✓	1.31
2026-09-28	oos	0.115845	0.114846	-0.86%	0.10513	-9.25%	0.0912	✓	1.30
2026-09-27	oos	0.10403	0.103295	-0.71%	0.115845	+11.36%	0.1311	✗	1.38
2026-09-26	oos	0.10584	0.105054	-0.74%	0.10403	-1.71%	0.0105	✓	1.37
2026-09-25	oos	0.104305	0.10356	-0.71%	0.10584	+1.47%	0.0165	✗	1.37
2026-09-24	oos	0.10064	0.100008	-0.63%	0.104305	+3.64%	0.0469	✗	1.38
2026-09-23	oos	0.10741	0.106624	-0.73%	0.10064	-6.30%	0.0579	✓	1.36
2026-09-22	oos	0.112325	0.111437	-0.79%	0.10741	-4.38%	0.0089	✓	1.31
2026-09-21	oos	0.10777	0.106987	-0.73%	0.112325	+4.23%	0.0548	✗	1.32
2026-09-20	oos	0.10109	0.100424	-0.66%	0.10777	+6.61%	0.0245	✓	1.47
2026-09-19	oos	0.107915	0.107051	-0.80%	0.10109	-6.32%	0.0560	✓	1.44
2026-09-18	oos	0.11962	0.118395	-1.02%	0.107915	-9.79%	0.0990	✓	1.43
2026-09-17	oos	0.10627	0.105229	-0.98%	0.11962	+12.56%	0.0706	✗	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.10055	0.099569	-0.98%	0.10627	+5.69%	0.0625	✗	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.11971	0.118071	-1.37%	0.10055	-16.01%	0.1680	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.12225	0.120517	-1.42%	0.11971	-2.08%	0.0270	✗	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.11709	0.115369	-1.47%	0.12225	+4.41%	0.0402	✗	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.134925	0.132912	-1.49%	0.11709	-13.22%	0.1207	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.125765	0.123971	-1.43%	0.134925	+7.28%	0.0840	✗	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.12138	0.119329	-1.69%	0.125765	+3.61%	0.0438	✗	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.078585	0.078413	-0.22%	0.12138	+54.46%	0.4595	✗	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.102125	0.100697	-1.40%	0.078585	-23.05%	0.2458	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.08165	0.080872	-0.95%	0.102125	+25.08%	0.2415	✗	1.00
2026-09-06	oos	0.09102	0.089502	-1.67%	0.08165	-10.29%	0.0762	✓	1.00
2026-09-05	oos	0.12056	0.118568	-1.65%	0.09102	-24.50%	0.2707	✓	1.00
2026-09-04	oos	0.08412	0.082639	-1.76%	0.12056	+43.32%	0.3757	✗	1.00
2026-09-03	oos	0.09631	0.094815	-1.55%	0.08412	-12.66%	0.0999	✓	1.00
2026-09-02	oos	0.07782	0.076198	-2.08%	0.09631	+23.76%	0.1843	✗	1.00
2026-09-01	oos	0.08336	0.082156	-1.44%	0.07782	-6.65%	0.0530	✓	1.00
2026-08-31	oos	0.10287	0.10127	-1.56%	0.08336	-18.97%	0.1797	✓	1.00
2026-08-30	oos	0.10148	0.097543	-3.88%	0.10287	+1.37%	0.0417	✗	1.00
2026-08-29	oos	0.05494	0.054964	+0.04%	0.10148	+84.71%	0.6205	✓	1.00
2026-08-28	oos	0.05606	0.055958	-0.18%	0.05494	-2.00%	0.0234	✓	1.00

predicted and realised values are beta-adjusted unless labelled otherwise: alpha = r_token − β_90d · r_BTC, so every figure means “performance versus this token’s own BTC beta”, not market direction. Prices are reconstructed under the flat-BTC assumption P̂ = P_last exp(clip(α̂, ±3)). In-sample (train) rows are excluded by default because the model trained on them. Read-only view of predictions.db.