MICRODUCK

microduck · Robinhood · gru_s4

token id: #784
symbol: MICRODUCK
variant: –
chain: Robinhood
address: 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725
cohort: datapoint (mid-window listing)
first bar: 2026-08-29
predictions: 138

+1d +7d +30d

Track record at +7d

assessed

of 46 predictions shown

direction hit

76.9%

alpha space; 50% is a coin flip

MAE (alpha)

0.3493

mean absolute log-return error

mean pred / actual

-0.0909

actual -0.2757

History

as of	split	anchor px	pred px	pred Δ	actual px	actual Δ	alpha err	hit	β90d
2026-10-22	oos	0.003037	0.002701	-11.06%	–	pending	–	–	1.20
2026-10-21	oos	0.002985	0.002618	-12.31%	–	pending	–	–	1.20
2026-10-20	oos	0.0018	0.001747	-2.92%	–	pending	–	–	0.84
2026-10-19	oos	0.001942	0.001871	-3.64%	–	pending	–	–	0.88
2026-10-18	oos	0.001786	0.001744	-2.35%	–	pending	–	–	0.90
2026-10-17	oos	0.002094	0.002004	-4.30%	–	pending	–	–	0.95
2026-10-16	oos	0.002361	0.002227	-5.68%	–	pending	–	–	0.94
2026-10-15	oos	0.002423	0.002275	-6.11%	0.003037	+25.32%	0.2648	✗	0.95
2026-10-14	oos	0.002253	0.002156	-4.29%	0.002985	+32.51%	0.2984	✗	0.91
2026-10-13	oos	0.002043	0.001992	-2.48%	0.0018	-11.92%	0.0996	✓	1.10
2026-10-12	oos	0.002155	0.002104	-2.34%	0.001942	-9.86%	0.0814	✓	1.12
2026-10-11	oos	0.001829	0.00183	+0.04%	0.001786	-2.38%	0.0057	✓	1.50
2026-10-10	oos	0.001829	0.001838	+0.52%	0.002094	+14.49%	0.1576	✓	1.47
2026-10-09	oos	0.001849	0.001859	+0.55%	0.002361	+27.75%	0.2581	✓	1.47
2026-10-08	oos	0.002105	0.002095	-0.49%	0.002423	+15.11%	0.1376	✗	1.52
2026-10-07	oos	0.002412	0.002354	-2.40%	0.002253	-6.59%	0.0139	✓	1.45
2026-10-06	oos	0.00238	0.002296	-3.52%	0.002043	-14.16%	0.0688	✓	1.66
2026-10-05	oos	0.002877	0.002722	-5.37%	0.002155	-25.11%	0.1565	✓	1.62
2026-10-04	oos	0.002327	0.002235	-3.94%	0.001829	-21.36%	0.1389	✓	1.84
2026-10-03	oos	0.001718	0.001431	-16.71%	0.001829	+6.46%	0.2764	✗	1.42
2026-10-02	oos	0.001685	0.00125	-25.82%	0.001849	+9.74%	0.4247	✗	1.41
2026-10-01	oos	0.001688	0.001119	-33.71%	0.002105	+24.70%	0.6868	✗	1.45
2026-09-30	oos	0.00239	0.002313	-3.23%	0.002412	+0.92%	0.0478	✗	1.73
2026-09-29	oos	0.003095	0.003111	+0.55%	0.00238	-23.09%	0.3060	✗	1.69
2026-09-28	oos	0.003635	0.003618	-0.49%	0.002877	-20.86%	0.2748	✓	1.69
2026-09-27	oos	0.00367	0.003605	-1.78%	0.002327	-36.61%	0.4618	✓	1.00
2026-09-26	oos	0.004564	0.004404	-3.52%	0.001718	-62.36%	0.9451	✓	1.00
2026-09-25	oos	0.004941	0.004739	-4.11%	0.001685	-65.91%	1.0392	✓	1.00
2026-09-24	oos	0.004495	0.004323	-3.83%	0.001688	-62.45%	0.9458	✓	1.00
2026-09-23	oos	0.004587	0.00438	-4.51%	0.00239	-47.90%	0.5960	✓	1.00
2026-09-22	oos	0.004842	0.004512	-6.81%	0.003095	-36.09%	0.3471	✓	1.00
2026-09-21	oos	0.005348	0.004962	-7.22%	0.003635	-32.02%	0.2742	✓	1.00
2026-09-20	oos	0.004465	0.0042	-5.93%	0.00367	-17.81%	0.1748	✓	1.00
2026-09-19	oos	0.004269	0.00376	-11.93%	0.004564	+6.91%	0.1554	✗	1.00
2026-09-18	oos	0.005603	0.005431	-3.08%	0.004941	-11.81%	0.1334	✓	1.00
2026-09-17	oos	0.005509	0.005434	-1.36%	0.004495	-18.41%	0.2898	✓	1.00
2026-09-16	oos	0.004344	0.003325	-23.47%	0.004587	+5.59%	0.2192	✓	1.00
2026-09-15	oos	0.005922	0.00561	-5.27%	0.004842	-18.24%	0.2786	✓	1.00
2026-09-14	oos	0.008547	0.008488	-0.69%	0.005348	-37.43%	0.5643	✓	1.00
2026-09-13	oos	0.006287	0.005103	-18.82%	0.004465	-28.97%	0.1888	✓	1.00
2026-09-12	oos	0.008404	0.007649	-8.98%	0.004269	-49.20%	0.6333	✓	1.00
2026-09-11	oos	0.006361	0.004064	-36.12%	0.005603	-11.92%	0.2748	✓	1.00
2026-09-10	oos	0.008453	0.006272	-25.80%	0.005509	-34.83%	0.1273	✓	1.00
2026-09-09	oos	0.010485	0.008081	-22.93%	0.004344	-58.57%	0.5930	✓	1.00
2026-09-08	oos	0.017855	0.016931	-5.17%	0.005922	-66.83%	1.0133	✓	1.00
2026-09-07	oos	0.018005	0.016895	-6.17%	0.008547	-52.53%	0.6698	✓	1.00